wimblettben
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Everything posted by wimblettben
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Well what can I say, utterly pathetic really. Just another proper good wind storm gone again for us and just more rotten flooding concerns where it isn't needed.
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Yes but some models are not showing that now. The worst isn't necessarily going to be for us in the southwest and may instead be for more northern areas.
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Yes but that was the point of my post. Life is stressful. The track is very uncertain, we could end up with people in southern areas thinking it will be fine and then wake up on Thursday morning with their roof blown off and trees uprooted.
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I don't agree with that. we have had forecast 40-60mph winds for the past god knows amount of storms and none of them have been noteable away from exposed areas. I am refering too for southern areas obviously, not the places which will be effected the worst where the 80mph gusts are expected. -
Reality check needed guys, its obvious this low is going to miss us down south and give northern areas the big winds, unless it sneaks up on us by accident and sends 70mph constant winds blowing roofs off of allready flooded houses. Life, don't talk to me about life!
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Thing is though, is that quite a few other models are showing this moving in a more usual location, i.e centre being over Ireland, giving the worst winds for Scotland and Northern england. So there is a possibility that the south won't be the main place effected by this. Usual 40-60mph gusts for us if it was the case.
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Well no its not wishfull thinking, just an impression I have looking at the latest models. Quite a few are changing the track of this, so it is quite likely that it will end up in a more usual place and many southern parts would have the usual 40-60mph gusts.
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I wonder whether this thing will retain its strength but end up further north, hitting the usual areas such as scotland or northern england the worst. Some latest models have just started to indicate this, so either it will dramatically downgrade by tomorrow or just end up in a more usual area for the strength of this type of low.
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I have to say, this would be bad. Lets hope a sudden downgrade happens by tomorrow because this would be inland 80mph gusts or more. I like windy weather, but I guess this sort of wind will uproot most trees and cause damages to houses and so isn't really worth having when you count the damage that it would cause.
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XCW weather wind map isn't showing any storm for Friday into Saturday either so its looking likely now that this storm on Wednesday will be the last one this Winter. Mind you even if its the same as the Christmas one, then we here won't be too badly effected, with just 45-50mph gusts hitting our house again.
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Not really, I'm shure they have more information then we have with these coming lows.
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Please don't listen to the papers, they are awful and confusing the general public! Now people will be expecting a damaging storm only on Friday when in reality there would have allready been one on Wednesday and with no one expecting it.
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But one model has allready completely got rid of the one on Friday into Saturday which is more then just a downgrade. Stands to my point really. The models are all over the place at the moment so I wouldn't take any one particular run as gospel at the moment, even the one for Wednesday.
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Yes exactly! I think people are forgetting this and this is why they are getting so worried, without realising that the models tend to do this with lows every other year.
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The isobars don't always give a good indication of the winds though. As has been allready been mentioned this would bring inland 70-80mph gusts, similar to what we had in the squall on the October 2013 storm in the early hours. It would basically be an enlongated October 2013 storm squall for many places, so the same winds but for a longer period as I stated.
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Oh ok.
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Basically its looking like an October 2013 storm again but just with the worst of the winds lasting for a much longer period. Likely to change though as its days away yet. Hopefully!
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Amazing how different the sea looks in Summer and Winter.
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What?
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No but thats not the point! There are people on here who are getting worried to death over the models that are throwing out storms in the same calibur as the 1990 burns day storm. And I am saying and pointing out that the main forecasting orginisations are not showing anything like this for next week. Check out the latest country file forecast, no mention of a burns day type storm, just very windy with a focuss more on the rain and flooding issues.
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However its just one model run, and could very easily change fast. To put things into perspective, the 1990 Burns day storm had inland mean speeds of gales to severe gales, and this was one of the most severe storms the UK has ever experienced in hundreds of years. The chances of this coming weeks storm being worse then the severe gales of 1990 or 1987 are pretty slim.
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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards
wimblettben replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it is pretty likely that the models are just overdoing the lows for next week, and I am even more confident about this after seeing the latest JMA model again get rid of the one on Tuesday and swing back to one on Thursday-Friday. Flooding and rain looks to again be the main concern, however their are signs of the weather becoming more settled finally in a few weeks time. -
I think at most this storm if it verified would be the same as the storm we had back in October last year for most places. As mentioned in the other thread though there was no mention on BBC Points West of any storms or severe gales for us just flooding concerns and more heavy rain.
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Just seen the latest BBC Points West forecast and there isn't any mention of a storm next week so far. I saw a number of mean winds averaging from 13-17mph for most of the days, however flooding and rain was shown to be the main issue.
