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Karl83

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Posts posted by Karl83

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    It definitely helps to have internet on the move, in fact I find it's a necessity, especially if out in rural parts. Glad to have been of help though.

    That following morning I headed up into NE England as that was the area forecasted to get the best storms following the overnight ones. Nothing happened where I was but huge storms erupted over the SE Midlands and spread into East Anglia. That is why I don't put all my trust in models anymore.

    Hopefully we both get something tonight.

    Yep - I just ran out of data yesterday and it doesn't refresh until tomorrow! 1.99 for 100MB will have to suffice or an MCS directly over my house would be the favoured option.

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Jul 2017

    ISSUED 20:29 UTC Mon 17 Jul 2017

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridge over the British Isles on Tuesday will slowly drift east, as a negatively-tilted upper trough approaches from the Atlantic. On its forward side, poleward advection of a high WBPT airmass will occur from western Europe into southern then central Britain. Falling heights as upper trough approaches, combined with subtle shortwaves, will provide the focus for destabilisation of the mid-levels, with significant CAPE available from approx 850mb upwards by Tuesday evening/night.

    Heavy showers / isolated thunderstorms could be possible as early as Tuesday morning close to Cornwall/Devon/Channel Islands from AcCas, though in general the risk of elevated thunderstorms here increases moreso during the afternoon hours, perhaps extending towards Dorset and Somerset by late afternoon. Bifurcating flow could also see an elevated thunderstorm complex pass close to Kent/Sussex during the first half of the evening, but more likely to stay a little to the south and hence no MDT issued for now.

    Elsewhere, likely still dry at this stage, but through the evening hours increasing isentropic lift will allow numerous scattered elevated thunderstorms to develop on the leading edge of the Theta-E ridge, particularly focussed over SW England then extending east across Cen-S England, though the exact phasing of upper dynamics interacting with the plume is still uncertain - earlier destabilisation would then require the MDT to be extended farther south towards the south coast. A broken line of scattered elevated thunderstorms is then expected to drift north through the night into the Midlands, parts of Wales, and perhaps extending towards London and East Anglia - some question marks over how far east these may extend, and so have refrained from stretching the MDT too far east for now.

    Some elevated thunderstorms could also form over the Republic of Ireland on Tuesday night, through a combination of advection of existing cells from SW England / SW Wales and new cells developing in-situ, generally moving towards the NW.

    The magnitude of CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates is such that lightning is likely to be very frequent with some thunderstorms, particularly those over England and Wales, and hail up to 1.5-2.0cm in diameter would be possible with the most potent cells. The risk of flash flooding is mitigated somewhat by notably dry surface layers, at least initially, but these will tend to moisten with time and bring a greater threat of some locally high rainfall totals should multiple storms move over the same area. Given the lead time, there is undoubtedly still some uncertainty over the exact forecast evolution, and further updates may be issued as new guidance becomes available.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-18

    Blimey. Could Bristol finally get a pasting tomorrow night? I sure do hope so. 

    Actually proper excited for a change!

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Karl83

    6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    I have to be careful what I say now for fear of annoying / upsetting someone but thanks for your support.:D

    Certainly the Ecm and Gfs 00z show plenty of shall we say, unseasonably cool, wet and breezy / windy weather during the next few weeks.

    I just hope something drastic changes for the 1st July onward as I'm taking my 2 1/2 year old camping in Newquay for a week. Probably not a great location to be, judging by recent model output. Watching the 06z from behind my desk chair! :(

    • Like 3

    Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Bristol Lulsgate TAF temporary forcecast mentions Thunderstorms

    Forecast period:0900 to 1900 UTC 13 September 2016

    Forecast type:TEMPORARY: The following changes expected for less than half the time period

    Winds:variable direction winds at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
    gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 13.0 m/s)

    Visibility:1.86 miles (2.99 km)

    Ceiling:4500 feet AGL

    Clouds:broken clouds at 4500 feet AGL

    Weather:+TSRA +TSGR  (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s) could not decipher "+TSGR")

    Text:TEMPO 1309/1319 VRB15G25KT 3000 +TSRAGR BKN045CB

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