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TobyT

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    Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    I do think the models overplay the cooling effect of onshore breeze from the North Sea somewhat. I am 12 miles from the Norfolk coast and have had a breeze of around 5 to 10 mph from NE max temp has hit 26.2c around 3pm its now 24.9c so if this is the full extent of the cooling north sea effect on temp for the coming week I wont be complaining at its plenty warm enough for me. Sorry for the IMBY post but I think the east wont fair too badly overall throughout this warm/hot spell.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well I for one will be glad to see the back of this current setup, although its been mainly dry unlike last years almost constant rain temperatures have been so depressed, I think in this part of Norfolk we have managed 2 days thus far this year to hit the magic 21c the rest of the time it been low teens at best, although I must admit we have had a good few sunny days. I find it hard to keep hearing how great its been, sure in south and west it has been a big improvement on last years deluge but in East Anglia its been a very cold start to the year followed by a cold spring.

    Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Some huge differences between the model suites today, but a lot of straw clutching taking place from those wishing for an extension of the cold and snow chances.

    Its a bit of a case of ECM vs the world in regards to the actual pattern for the UK, however in terms of the overall temperature trend, it is very much upwards. I've seen a few comments about the ECM ensembles 'delaying the warm up'. Up until the middle of last week this was true, however, since then we have seen a consistent prognosis from the ECM EPS for an upward jump in both Tmax and Tmin values, along with a signal for increased precipitation amounts.

    Below is a selection of tmax ECM EPS runs all the way from todays 0z back through to Wednesday:

    post-1038-0-94427200-1364823516_thumb.pn

    Really very little difference there and a continued noted increase in temperatures from around April 8th.

    The difference comes from the likely patterns. The GFS/GEM combo offering something very settled and, dare I say it, 'spring-like', though perhaps more unsettled for the far north

    06zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif00zCMCENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

    Where as the ECM mean is far more progressive with a breakdown in the day 6-10 period, and Atlantic low pressure systems barreling into the UK - in other words, support for the ECM det.:

    00zECMWFENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

    If people would like it put into really basic terms though, the dead giveaway of an impending temperature jump is this:

    00zallnao.gif

    Pretty solid agreement on a return to a positive NAO signature, though worth noting here that, once again, the GFS operational is out on its own in the extended range (getting rather tiresome now), perhaps indicating that something more akin to the GFS Ensemble Mean is in order:

    gens-21-1-240.png?6

    On the face of it, thats not a million miles away from the ECM at day 10, just a little further north with the pattern.

    EDM1-240.GIF?01-12

    So then, as a hopecast I would be going for something more akin to the GFS....however back into reality, I think it looks more and more likely that we will have to endure a return to unsettled and wet conditions unfortunately, with temperatures probably just below the seasonal norm, though feeling far warmer than of late.

    Perhaps the ECMWF is being a little too progressive, and in reality I think we may be waiting until next week before we see anything change significantly. Unfortunately I fear that once this pattern sets in, we may be waiting until the second half of May before we get another chance of any extended dry and warm conditions.

    SK

    Another excellent post form you SK and I have to agree with your sentiment regarding the pattern change as we seem to be getting more and more of these locked in patterns and have been for some considerable time now perhaps al la ""little ice age"? pure speculation but who can say.

    This is the end

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    All the very best Stewart - You will be greatly missed - thank you for all your input on here -you have shared such insight and knowledge with all of us it wont be the same without you - All the Best in your new venture and as others have said hopefully you will pop in from time to time.

    Robert.

    Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    The main reason is because by Mid February onwards the south starts to see milder temperatures, the sun is getting higher and the days are longer so any snow which does fall can often melt a lot quicker than it would in say December and January.

    Can anyone remember (excluding the 47 winter) when we last saw a sustained cold and snowy period after February because I can't

    Yes I remember heavy snow around 2-3 feet deep in around the 20th Feb in 1986 or 87 it hung around for about 10 day or so, I was living in the Southend on Sea area at the time and it caused major disruption, how widespread it was I really cant say but it was the most amount of snow I can ever remember in my lifetime. sorry mods at not on topic but felt it needed saying.

    Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    Morning All

    Up early looks like east of our region have had a few cm covering/top up over night, Up here in North Norfolk 20miles NNW Norwich had 2cm top up, checked the latest radar main front should reach Norwich/North Norfolk area around 2pm (rough estimate). Just seen the latest forecast on BBC now showing quite and active system moving north across EA on Sunday.

    Looks like we could have major snow cover by the end of the weekend widely.

    Stay safe out there peps...good.gif

    Oh and snowing lightly here past hour.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    The GFS has edged further again towards colder regime. The posters above are NOT picking up on the fact [MAYBE ON PURPOSE OR NOT] that the GFS further holds the Atlantic back and we see a further shift south overall of the jetstream again. Another small step by the GFS towards a colder outlook. ECM is similar to yesterdays but overall I'd say a further improvement. UKMO again is a stormer.

    Re snow, I remember the great Jan 1985, I was still in Swansea back then, we had attacks from the SW. I can't post charts as at work BUT the first assault remained as rain below 300 meters but the second brought the goods big style. It may be the samne this time but overall IMO the outlook improvement continues.

    BFTP

    That was the point I was trying to put across and totally agree GFS is moving closer to the UKMO and I would not rule out cold holding the Atlantic further back further west/south in the coming runs.

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