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TobyT

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    Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013 20:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    Just asked Chris Bell (BBC Forecaster on Look East) if he can post his picture in this thread which shows 15.5cm of snow North of Norwich, hoping he will oblige in a mo for all the doubters, just seen the picture on Facebook!

    Chris Bell lives 6 miles S of me so if his pics are from his home that would tie in the the 13-15cm here in Hindolveston and counting!!

    Model Output Discussion 18/11/2012 12Z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    Ecm looking good with heights still building NE by T240 if this comes off a cold pool should soon develop

    http://www.theweathe...p500.png?cb=606

    So not a bad run from ecm thismorning...great model watching

    Must add what others have said this forum make such good reading... especially from the more experienced regulars...I am learning such a lot so thanks guys for all the informative and at time entertaining posts ie Ed`s monkey nuts and hose ;-))

    Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    alan - the models are just fine for a blocked end to november this morning and follow on from yesterdays 12z's pretty well as expected. its impossible to get to the correct solution immediately and there will be a fair amount of chopping and changing before we see where the blocking is going to establish and then if it will hold in situ or migrate elsewhere. and cc, dont worry about russia not being cold, in time, a trough would drop into the block and introduce some colder uppers.

    Totally agree with you bluearmy...as has been said many times on here patience is required..the models are on to somthing and are consistanly showing some form of blocking..lets hope the synomics come right for us to get our first tast of winter around the latter stages Nov but if we dont there will be further chances further down the line..we are still in Nov..so how anyone can write off winter with any degree of certainty at this stage is beyond me??

    Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models are full of surprises tonight, don't rule anything out is the message IMO.

    I have to agree, there seems a real possibility of a major change from the mild..ish phase we are currently in...I am very happy with regard to where we are at this point in November...very interesting model watching in the coming days especially as we head towards end of the month with current wave breaking forecast to disrupt the PV and major blocking to or NW and NE.. exciting times ahead

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TobyT

    "For those who perhaps have studied physics, I am sure that adiabatic and diabatic processes are not complex at all, but I do confess that even with a physics A level to my name, ( a good few years ago mind you!), I did have to relook up the phrases when I joined NW. And I am sure that there are many more in my situation reading this thread!"

    Thanks for you update on the strat Chio, as always your posts are concise and easy to follow especially for a novice like myself.

    I would not have a clue about adiabatic and diabatic processes and like you say I am sure their are many others on here who would be unfamiliar with these terms.Sorry if Im a bit off topic but felt it needed to be said.

    • Like 1

    Preliminary Winter Thoughts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just want to echo what everyone else has said..great presentation.. full of information thanks GP

    .I follow these forums daily and the input from guys like yourself Chio and BFTP et al make for really informative reading..thanks guys.

    To my untrained eye it looks like we are in for a very interesting winter,..all the signs seem to be moving towards the possibility of cold Jan/Feb with -AO a very blocked winter interesting times ahead.

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