SnowObsessor90
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Posts posted by SnowObsessor90
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Now this could turn out to be complete and utter twaddle but does anyone else get that sinking feeling that the models might have already picked up the general theme for beyond next week i.e cool/cold zonal before reverting back to the dirge we've had over the last few weeks?
If things did pan out that way then no It wouldn't be the end of winter but what it could very well do is push the date for a potential pattern change further and further back decreasing the chances of a proper sustained cold spell more and more as we go along possibly all the way to the back end of February/early March and this is assuming we get anything in the way of cold and snow at all which in itself might not even happen.
Hopefully it doesn't come to that but that possibility is one I fear and sadly a very probable outcome as things stand.
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Starting to reach the point again now where I feel like taking a break from Model watching for a few days.
But really what would be point in that? It's not as if it's going to change anything. What will be, will be whether I like it or not and unfortunately at the moment it happens to be the latter.
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If the winter does carry on with the same theme then how does this effect peoples perception of UK winters in general?, that the last few years were nothing more than an anomaly from the with winters of this type being par for the course for the foreseeable or what?
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My advice campers is to go spend the next 7 days away from the models, come back and we may be looking forward to something.
The next 7 days are a write off though, so unless you enjoy painstakingly watching prospects 240hrs+ then stay away, because it is painful and torturous! Just speaking from experience to the newbies. We could have 5 days of excellant charts in FI, even hitting the T168hrs in 3-4 days and woooop it will be gone.
I know I said I was do exactly that a week or so ago but I just can't so it looks like more tortue to come for me then.
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Well the likes of GP and others who share similar views still seem fairly confident about this potential pattern change from mid to late month onwards and don't beleive we'll start see the models properly picking this up until the weekend at the very earliest so I'll hold those with more expert knowledge than I'll probably ever have to it for now.
If they don't however and just keep the same status quo with no sign at all of it letting up for the next week and beyond then that's when I'll start to accept that simply isn't going to be our time this winter finally ridding myself of the ludicrously high expectations i had going into it.
There's only so far one can go on waiting for something that look's increasingly unlikely to happen.
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Was about to add yet another doom and gloom post to this thread but now I'm glad I didn't. ECM continues to mess with our emotions it seems.
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Nothing worse than logging on to see wrist slashing the morning after, when the next run doesn't build on the previous one.
That is more than likely to be the case one would have thought.
Still it's nice to see that the models are starting to show something even if they're just nothing more than fleeting signals that may or may not come to anything at this stage.
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It is not going to snow this winter.
Despite the general state of things it already has here.
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I don't think I fully agree.
There is literally no cold pooling over Europe either, so it just shows that it's not just a typical UK Winter, as it's affecting most of Western Europe.
We should be able to break out of this pattern soon, but don't hold me to that.
As for summer, yep it'll be dominated by LP over us, and HP to our West, just watch.
I was more referring to what type of weather should typically expect here in UK specifically more than anything else when I said "in this part of the world" but whatever.
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So far, I'd rate this winter as ridiculous.
We've had some brief, weak NW'erly incursions and Polar Westerlies. So what? We've seen no Northern blocking, and we're not likely to for a number of weeks. It's just mild after mild after mild situations involving a stubborn subtropical ridge and jetstream that seems to be plaguing the UK stopping that Azores High from pushing Northwards into Greenland creating the blocking we're looking for..
Most places (not including mine for a change) hasn't seen any lying snow yet, and even the East has been pretty snow free in comparison to recent years. It's going to take something big to shift this pattern, and I can't see that happening until the last third of January, and by that time, there's not much of Winter left.
I can say with confidence that February will be 'the month' for us coldies, we'll probably see a rinse and repeat series of Northerlies, giving Scotland lots of snow, but little in the way of snow for England unless we get lucky.
Roll on summer.
Ridiculous in terms of cold and snow potential or lack for us coldies, yes.
But realistically this probably isn't anymore than we should expect for this part of the world in general, that's just the fact of the matter sadly. Could the last few winters have been just an anomaly? well I hope not but I certainly wouldn't bet against that being the case.
As for the summer well it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up getting northern blocking again just when we don't want it lol.
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Even that in itself wasn't very good , it snowed, settled and then was washed away all in one fell swoop.To be fair the last day of snow for me last winter was 7th of jan
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With the situation as it currently stands if nothing has changed in the model output come tommorow morning then I'm going to try and stay away from this place for a week or so before coming back to re access.
If nothing at all has changed by then I think I might have to finally call it quits for this winter in terms of proper cold prospects, anything after that would be a bonus for me although that's not to say that something still couldn't come right out of the blue and surprise me at some point.
Really can't see any other alternative at the minute unless I want to give my head endless torment to no avail lol
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Well there seems to be a growing feeling amongst several members that the winter(in terms of proper cold prospects I mean) is all but over.
Do you all go along with that?
And for the sake of this post not being completely off topic, very mild here today with temperatures somewhere between 13 and 14C.
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How so?, it might turn out to be mild but from reading the Stratosphere thread anything is still possible at this stage if everything ends up falling in the right place.Today, having read model discussion and monthly outlooks, along with newspaper articles, I've sort of had a 'realisation' that the winter is going to be mild.
Hope not though.
All these calls about winter already being over are far too premature IMO.
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I dont mind mild weather, today is lovely. But when there is still leaves on the trees and nats and flies still about it goes to show just how mild things really are. Its not how things are supposed to be. On the other hand this is how it was the other year, and we had the coldest jan- feb on record.
If it's clear and sunny yes but if it's just dull and grey or wet and windy of a day and night which can quite often be the case then urgghh...
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Just put my arm out the window and yes it does feel pleasant outside but like I said I just doesn't feel right to me at this time of year though, can't really put a finger on the specific reason why, it just doesn't.
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Many feel the weather should reflect the season, we complain if it's too cold or wet in the Summer as it should be hot, dry and sunny, then we complain in the Winter when it's mild, wet and grey as it should be cold, frosty and snowy! But we all know the weather here in the UK does NOT follow the seasons very well.
I hope something freakish happens to our weather systems one day to put a stop to all that and makes the seasons flow as i beleive they should do in this part of the world.
Unfortunately the chances of that happening are just much as winning the lottery, maybe even less.
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Certainly not feeling very festive, 11.2c! Grrr....
Good to see I'm not the only one feeling this way, BT seems to have caught Gavin Ditish lol.
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lol it's up to/almost up to 13C here now. Just shows goes to show you how ridiculous this current pattern we've just entered actually is especially since it happens to be occurring during the Christmas period .
It just somehow doesn't feel right to me but ah well, bring on the new year.
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Going by the local weather station temps it looks I've quite a humid/mild day compared to recently outside today with a high of over 12C currently.
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Nobody not even Mr even larger teapot can say for sure what would happen after SSW and PV disruption. Personally, I'm more optimistic of having classic Jan/Feb snowfests, rather than damp warm weather that I thought would be the case in my pre-winter blog. Time will tell.
Well on the face of it at least he seems to be remaining rather bullish that the Polar vortex won't be shifted much from it's current position.
But as you say, only time will tell, hopefully it all ends up blowing up right in his face.
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Hopefully something happens within the weather systems in next few years or to stretch it even further at some point in our lifetimes to make our seasons flow as they should do i.e Hot in the summer, Wet and windy in Autumn, Cold and Snow in winter etc.Exactly its typical that we get these charts now and not in summer, plus this autumn was euro high dominated and if we had those synoptics in summer we would of had many days of heat and thunderstorms.
Also as Gavin said on the MOD thread the jet stream will probably go south next summer annoyingly and there will be loads of northern blocking just at the time of year we don't want it
Not counting on it though.
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This is great.
It almost makes up for the very mild snowless Christmas that looks almost certainly to be on the cards, well 'sort of' anyway.
Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Anonymous21
The last time we saw anything like the setup depicted within those ensemble members back in December it was downgraded and we ended up with a decent toppler of sorts with lying snow even near coastal areas.
Could we see something similar again perhaps with it being a little less marginal this time? Well as people keep saying all we can do is wait and see how things develop as we near ever so closer to crunch time so to speak.,