SnowObsessor90
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Posts posted by SnowObsessor90
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Can't wait until we have all of the model drama again next month before it downgrades into a non-event like this one turned out to be.
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From what I can gather this could well turn out to be the last chance saloon, really hope that the stuff that some of us had on Boxing Day doesn't turn out to be our lot for the season.
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My fellow coldies needn't worry too much, I recently booked a trip away to a certain cold and snowy place which is almost certain to backfire on me at some point, in fact it wouldn't surprise me if it happened as soon as Christmas.
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The whole 'waxing and waning' thing has been mentioned several times by the more knowledgeable amongst us, time will tell....
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From what I can see if there is going to be any sort of "change" then it's going to be of milder variety rather than other way around, hope not as a repeat of Christmas 2011 certainly would not be welcome not to mention to the knock on effect it'll most probably have for the best part of January if we get to that stage.
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Can't help but wonder whether there's perhaps been any unexpected developments hence the current output with a seemingly unwavering Polar Vortex, that said it's still very early days.
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To be honest the current output as is as bad as I've seen, perhaps that trip to Lapland I was thinking about isn't completely out of the question.
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The Ian Brown lites seem to have an extra sense of empowerment and smugness after how last Winter turned out, hope something comes along in December to shut them up for a bit.
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Chiono and others always said that this initial wave activity wasn't likely to be benfecial for the UK at this early juncture with first real shot at cold potentially coming later on in December so if you a want straw to clutch then there's that, you can't help but get the feeling that this is deja vu all over again though
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So you would like continuous westerly winds and rain???
Just asking
If it's just a stalemate that eventually ends with it winning anyway then yes!
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Personally I'm not the biggest fan of these 'holding patterns', sometimes they can lead to cold but quite often they only serve to delay the inevitable, if it's the latter which is probably still the most likely on balance then I'd much rather see the Atlantic just roll through unapossed.
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Well it looks like the 18z has indeed had a few tonight despite initial suggestions that it was sober
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I have to say the temptation to book a pre Christmas wintry holiday is becoming all the more stronger at the minute, as for being patient well I'm just not sure whether it's worth taking a chance on things eventually working themselves out after the farce that was last year.
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It's good to see that the 18z Parallel is starting to pick up the mantle from it's predecessor
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Model watching has become a thing for now throughout the seasons but there's just something that feels right about the Models rolling out 1 hour earlier at this time of year.
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If things take a real turn for the worse between now and the start of the winter then there's always a Plan B, no way am going to just wait it out in the faint hope that February 'might' produce something like I did last time.
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Metoffice are currently predicting warm weather for beginning of November, so I guess winter will be starting late.
I think it could well be another mild winter, even though some so called winter forecasts I have seen are predicting colder than average for Southern UK.
Another reason i think it will be mild this winter is that most of the energy companies have frozen their prices, where usually if it's a cold winter they put their prices up a lot.
Having just had a look at the Winter 11/12 equivalent of this thread I do have to admit that prospect of another above average Autumn does give me a bit of the heebie geebies, now I know that there's several other factors involved, some which happen to look rather positive at the minute but still.....
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What I'd ideally want is November/December 2010 type synoptics even though I'm 99.9% sure that it's not going to happen, btw are the MOD and Regional discussion threads from that period still archived somewhere? as I'd really love to have a look at them
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The persistence of the Vortex this year really has been quite something, even now as the season draws to a close it's still determined not to give the UK any sort of sniff at cold, hopefully this turns out to be just a one off and not something which marks the beginning of another 90s/early 2000s type period.
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Well I'll a consolation bit of snow if it comes , it's better than nothing at all I suppose.
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This Winter really has gone out of it's way to remind us how difficult it can be for the UK to get Cold, we were well and truly spoilt over the last 4/5 years.
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Todays output merely reflects what Tamara said yesterday when she threw in the towel as far this Winter is concerned, looks like I have no other choice but to up to the Caingorms to get my snow fix then.
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is there no end to this rain?
A drier period/spell is inevitable some point, that said it really surprise me if unsettled turns out to be a recurring theme this year with conditions getting even worse if anything under the influence of northern blocking.
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Thank god my footy team are doing so well, don't know what I'd be like now if that wasn't the case.
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by SnowObsessor90
The models have only really trended one way today unfortunately, looks like WIB could well have called this right, it just seems like we're going through a phase where proper sustained cold spells are hard to come by at the minute, hopefully it doesn't take too long for us to come out of it.