SnowObsessor90
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Posts posted by SnowObsessor90
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Have earlier runs this week hinted at something different? or is this simply a matter of less data input during the Christmas period?
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At for the moment it doesn't look like Christmas day is going to be ridiculously mild like 2011 was, that;s only thing that can from the current output, beyond that it's simply a matter a patience, if RJS ends calling it right with his January cold snap suggestion (unlikely I know) then I salute him.
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At least there won't be any problems for the postman when I get around to ordering some Christmas gifts, that's about only silverlining I can think of with that ghastly output.
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Yes i remember last winter all the 'winters over' post look how it turned out in the end
Back then the wheels were already in motion for what was to come later on despite December providing nothing of note, we'll need quite a bit of luck if we are to see similar from position we're in at the moment.
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If GP was still around we would have been under absolutely no illusions about what this winter had in store for us weeks back but I suppose it was nice dream for a bit whilst the ECM putting out those nice looking charts
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At this point I'd just be happy if the Jet switched to more of a NW-SE axis so we can have the cooler variation of Zonal, that's how desperate things are!
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Our biggest enemy right now just as it has been in many past Winters is that purple monstrosity known as the Polar Vortex, hopefully something finally manages to put a stop it in it's tracks come Jan, I'm not sure whether I'd want that to be another SSW event though, the last time we had one of those back in early 2012 it ended up screwing us over with February turning out to mild on the whole, that said I do think I recall Chio saying that he doesn't expect one of those this year.
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I'm starting to see more and more talk about a Zonal pattern developing in the MOD thread, heck I've even seen someone mention the possibility of another late 90s/ early 00s winter and I can't say I never saw it coming, ever since earlier in the year there's been very little in the way of below average temperatures with heights tending to be lower over Greenland so to see that general theme continue really isn't that much of a surprise.
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The weather is just stagnant atm and with the pv position and the euroish high its not looking like changing.dry and hopefully bright is the best we can expect imo
I'd be content enough the high managed to hang on until Christmas and was positioned favorably enough to provide weather of the sunny and frosty variety, sods laws dictates that it'll more likely be a long fetch SW flow with temps of 13-15 by the time we get to that point though.
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Well what a fantastic exciting first half of winter coming up. Really great ..........
At least look to be turning Zonal (yet....), that's about only straw to clutch at the moment.
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Looking at the current weather outside I'd much rather have that than borefest we're looking for next week or so but on the other hand a more active Atlantic type pattern would probaly put us in an even worse position for cold so it's one of them really.
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I's funny how I was absolutely ridiculed a couple of days back for suggesting that a period of dull non eventful weather followed by an eventual return of the Atlantic could be a possibility, based on all output we've seen since I'd say that was pretty fair shout.
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This run shows pretty us much in no mans land whilst the PV gathers it energys for an eventual full on Zonal onslaught, I could totally see this happening which would pretty much wipe out the rest of this month and Jan
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I'd personally back the GFS in FI over whatever the ECM shows, recent events have shown that people can no longer cast off the GFS so easily for it's 'eastward bias", the ECM is the joke now if anything.
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Did people say there was no sign of Zonal? I really hope this run isn't the first sign of the mist beyond next weekend beginning to clear....
Okay maybe not but what GFS has gone onto show really isn't much better.
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I duno, ECM shows winds NW'ly enough at 144hrs to drive showers into Cheshire and my neck of the woods...infact a streamer would be highly probable from that (-10 850s and a warmish Irish Sea). N of Cheshire would probably be dry though.
Don't worry, I'd get some pics up
When you say North of Cheshire you don't happen to mean Backtrack's ( and my) BY do you....
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Bar the odd run the has GFS barely shown much if any interest over the last day or so, kudos to it once more if it turns out to be right on this.
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I wouldn't surprise at all if all this model "uncertainty" actually turned out to be an Atlantic/Zonal signal trying to break through all along, as IB said the models are generally better at resolving something like that rather than picking out cold spells.
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The GFS has defo gone to the pub tonight judging how FI looks to be shaping up
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Could you give any reasons why you think this, backed up with charts? or is this just your 'gut' feeling?
Oh I dunno, maybe due the fact that all of the overriding signs are going against ECM and GFS 00z OP's showed, if we couldn't get anything of note last December when those background signals did appear to be more favorable then I fail to see see how that's in any way a positive for this time around.
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As has been printed out we've here so many times before, personally I was expecting worse from the output this morning but that could simply be yet another case of them attempting to pull the wool over peoples eyes, let's see what they show later....
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The fact that the models now show anticylconic with a transition back to a more westerley based pattern being more likeley doesn't surprise at all, called it days back when Models were still fairly early into their "transition phase", really the farce of last December should already have served as enough of an eye opener for users on this site.
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Well I suppose ECM wouldn't the certainly wouldn't be the worst case scenario, it be hypocritical to suggest otherwise from my point of view as I do like cold, sunny and frosty
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Well reading between the lines it seems like more are starting to lean towards December being pretty much a write off, it's funny as people were taking a pop at me for suggesting similar a couple of days back.
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by SnowObsessor90
From from what I can see of the output it looks there more amplification but typically it's completely in the wrong place for us snow lovers in the UK to benefit, sigh.