SnowObsessor90
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Posts posted by SnowObsessor90
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Pub run says no to regression to Greenland though , staying sober it seems, could be one of the milder runs with high pressure dropping to our SE.
Likely to be a mild outlier but a few runs were showing this, key period is the link up with our mid latitude high and the Newfoundland high between 96 - 120h. On this run the high over Newfoundland is a bit weaker and the low to W of the Azores is more troublesome. Little changes at that stage will make a big difference as alluded to earlier.
But it could just be a wobble anyway.
But true to form it still throws us something right at the end however.
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I just hope it does'nt end up an East coast few light showers toppler setup but have always maintained there is just as much chance of that as it being too West based.
Well I thought that it was definitely over full stop a few days ago so for my sanity it's probably best if I try I stick with that mindset rather be let down for the umpteenth time!
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Well if anything the ECM tonight shows a very dry and anticyclonic run, but for thoose weather enthusiasts (bar Gavin) and teeth-pullingly boring run. I'd rather it was an atlantic conveyor belt than this - cold, dry and dull is about the worst form of weather imagineable.
Those living in the south west certainly wouldn't agree with you......
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No change from a couple of days ago for our region,a very nice week in prospect,the only obvious change will be the temperatures
some quite cold days from Wednesday onwards with Temperatures probably up to around 3c by day and below freezing by night
day time temperatures tempered by the east or NE wind so probably feeling much colder than the 3c suggests
not much change into the weekend staying cold but with maybe the outside chance of a few snow flurries over the highest Hills
C.S
As I've said I'm happy enough with that outlook considering that we never really in the frame for anything to begin with, still it's sort of a shame that most likely won't see get any Snow against that blue sky backdrop but ah well perhaps we'll have a better chance of seeing something like that next winter when heights finally do find their way to Greenland for once (fat chance)!
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Actually I'm happy with the GFS 18z FI. Seems to reaffirm we are going to see pressure rises around the Greenland area circa days 10-14. I'm not overly fussed about it being progged as west based at this time as the overwhelming trend this winter has been to model heights too far west in the 10 day timeframe, only to correct them east as time has gone on (see earlier post) i.e Greenland heights modelled= Scandi wedge in reality.
If anything, today has cast doubt on just how far that high may may build to the west of Greenland and I'm reasonably happy to go along with thinking it will be more centrally placed in reality. This may change one way or another in the following days as the following pattern becomes clearer.
It's good to know that I'm not only who noticed this, thought I was looking at it all wrong for a bit there, not that matters seeing as it's FI and on the the 18z..., will start to become more interested if this and what was hinted at by the ECM 12z earlier becomes a consistent running trend though as you say.
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I'm assuming that the GFS FI does nothing but reaffirm the strong west based - NAO trend going by the lack of comments.....
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As much as IB has gotten stick for it I think to say but the more modern type weather pattern tendencies have had an impact on this winter as you bet your bottom doller that we wouldn't have had quite this many near misses back in the old days.
Don't really hold out much hope for next two seasons either given these factors, it'll probably be yet another Greenland high dominated summer followed by a raging Zonal Bartlett type pattern next winter, see this forecasting malarky isn't really so hard when you think about lol
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as long as the summer is good a can sacrifice a warm spring,
I find when we have a warm spring the summer is a wash out .
I personally wouldn't bank on that, I was under the assumption that last spring being wet would be a good omen for the summer to follow but in reality it was anything but lol
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As someone commented in the MOD thread this fast starting to look like an early December 2012 type setup with high pressure sat over us followed by the Atlantic invariably taking charge not too long after but ah well never mind it's not as if this so called 'easterly' was ever going to be really anything other than the dry and cold variety for us anyway (not that I'm complaining from a sunny and frosty POV obviously) , it simply means that those further east won't be getting anything either lol
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Could the GFS have had this right to begin with? as the more this trend continues the more it looks that's the sort of direction we're heading in....
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Would the latest ECM 12z bring sunshine and frosts for us under the influence of high pressure? or am I looking at it wrong?
I'll ask the question again, would it?
Failing any more snow or a prolonged nationwide freeze (which I realise was probably never going to be a realistic prospect anyway) I really would like to see a cool/cold sunny and frosty spell to see out the winter as we really haven't seen much in the way of that this year.
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Okay I was started to get all excited about the output this morning then I realised that I live in the North West
I really have think seriously about moving to somewhere further east one day. -
Would the latest ECM 12z bring sunshine and frosts for us under the influence of high pressure? or am I looking at it wrong?
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Seems odd in the MOD when IB seems to be generally more upbeat about cold prospects than several others, not quite sure whether that's a good or a bad thing.
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Easterly needs to sod off. Would love this mild, sunny weather to last until early Spring, then we can tap into some warmth.
I have to say I'm come along with your line of thinking, the prospect of a rinse and repeat of last months synoptics doesn't exactly overwhelm me tbh especially given that the lengthening daylight hours which will only serve to anything lying quicker.
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And finally we're getting somewhere at 240hrs. Still, given it seems to be completely out of whack at 96hrs this is not to be trusted - looks nice though!
Well other than that it seems to be mostly dry and cold/cool with us under the influence of high pressure, as you say it is most likely to be wrong due to the differences in the earlier time frames but still I'd take that over another eventual Atlantic breakdown.
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Disagree ~
Most peoples concerns regarding the ecm comes in mid~late fi where the retrogression fails. However as i said previously we do have time on our side & are yet to see where the op sits in the ensembles.
What we have is a very decent easterly now edging into the reliable time frame thus far it has not been watered down which is great. Of course more runs needed but if your in the east or south east you really cannot ask for much more as things stand.
The ECM is still good on face of it but as has been pointed once you start to loose some of those solid foundations the margin for error becomes ever so lower, we got lucky last Jan in that respect with a few decent frontal events and even then the snowcover started melting at the first opportunity due to it not being overly cold, personally I'd prefer something more locked in and prolonged, that way everybody benefits.
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To be fair I think some peoples concerns are quite justified, I mean how many ECM runs this winter suggesting robust blocking have actually come anywhere to fruition? Exactly
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Indeed, what we would require after getting to that point is a retrogression towards Greenland which has been talked about a lot this winter but never actually happened, could we finally get those sort of synoptics which have thus far alluded us just as the season is on it's dying embers? fingers crossed...
Oh why did I have to open my big mouth, the ideas gone on the latest run
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One of the things the latest GFS sort of reminds me of is last Feb when we failed to get enough energy going underneath and in the end it was just a rather tame affair with with a big high sat over us which inevitably flattened, is there any chance that we could possibly have a scenario like that again?
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The easterly might just be the start of it!
Indeed, what we would require after getting to that point is a retrogression towards Greenland which has been talked about a lot this winter but never actually happened, could we finally get those sort of synoptics which have thus far alluded us just as the season is on it's dying embers? fingers crossed...
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ecm gone on one? When did the ecm go on one?
Perhaps 'going of on one' was the wrong choice of phrase, maybe 'going overboard' would have more appropriate which you do have to admit it has done on quite few occasions this season, do hope it's right though
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Well the GFS remains bullish from it's 12z run of it's idea of an early spring, probably more even as high pressure remains in SITU well into FI, can't but help feeling that the ECM has gone on one again.
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Looks I'll be going out to have another snow walk tomorrow, it'll be nice to take a few more wintry pics to add my collection
I really have think seriously about moving to somewhere further east one day.
North West England Regional Discussion 19th February >
in Regional
Posted · Edited by SnowObsessor90
It looks like your concerns were well founded on this, as I said personally I was never going to duped again by the models after their previous form this winter, one day they'll be time where we'll see good looking synoptics actually verify again ala 2010 i'm sure but I think it's fair to say that it's not going to be within the next 9 months at the very least, I just hope that we won't be waiting too long. I mean come this December it'll be 3 years on from our last noteworthy cold spell....