[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

One thing is for sure if nothing ends up materializing  over the next month (highly likely) and next Winter starts off in a similar fashion then I'm going to stop model watching indefinitely until we get another cold spell worthy of the name which for all we know could take years and years.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I have massive dilemma on my hands now, do I just around and wait for something to materialise  or do I take a trip to the alps/ Switzerland and risk making a fool out of myself in event that the cold does end up arriving?, either way I can't win.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

gav, not sure if it will be all that settled, but data from gefs shows a warming trend into days 10-15

western Europe along with much of England see a positive anomaly returning!

cfs ensemble from feb 10- 20th shows the continent under a rather positive anomaly by this stage. It would seem February is not looking keen on cold. Ext ecm ensembles back this trend, with a positive temp anomaly into Europe by day 10-15 also!

I may well have to start planning a trip abroad very soon if that outlook is set in stone, can't stand the thought of having to wait at least another 10-13 months before seeing anymore Snow.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Stuff winter, if cold/snow is going to become  all the more rare in the future  due to climate change I'd take it if meant warmer/drier summers became more of common occurrence.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

It seems the goalposts are being shifted once more in the MOD thread with early/mid Feb being the turning point, for all this "potential" we still don't appear to be getting any closer.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Bar the odd run here and there has the ECM really shown that much interest? it would just be typical if it turned out to be right on this particular occasion.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I havebad  feeling it could well be groundhog day in the MOD come the morning and if so I really do fear for my laptops safety!

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

Given the eastern bias in the MOD thread is the ECM better or worse for us?

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

I haven't seen the word 'downgrade' used yet but that's the impression I'm getting, ah well it's not as I should have been expecting anything different.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Is too to start considering a trip abroad to get my Snow fix yet? yes I  could actually see myself resorting to that.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Zonal is the overwhelming favorite to see out this winter, anyone who says otherwise is quite frankly in denial.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

lol, it  looks like the pub run is actually  living up to it's name for once

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I notice that Frosty/Karl is having a go at the good old reverse psychology trick over in the MOD thread, hopefully he has better luck with that than I have so far this winter.

[One of the mildest Winters for some years?]

Unlike the winter of 88/89, we have not seen any type of Bartlett set up or any very mild SW'ly set ups although the 18Z does show one! I think the above average temps may come from more from the lack of night time frosts rather than anything exceptionally high day time maxes! 

If there's Silver lining at all to take from this Winter it's fact that the Sun hasn't been afraid to make appearances which most likely wouldn't have been case IMBY under those sort of setups .

[Spring 2014 Discussion]

March 2012 was good, but if it meant going through another summer 2012, I think I'll pass!

If the worst scenario unfolds for the reminder of this Winter then it wouldn't surprise me if something like that March occurs at some point in the Spring with Northern Blocking taking hold thereafter which would only serve to further rub the salt in the wounds for us coldies.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

The 18z is often a trend starter, it wouldn't surprise if  the models follow suit over the next day or so with all of those championing this big "game changer" being brought firmly down to earth before of course the models start teasing us again a week later and so on, so forth, as others have said it just feels like this is one of those winters...

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

The high to our our NE has been a bit more further west on this run but what sort of knock  on effect will this have in terms of developments later on? Good or bad?

 

Unfortunately bad by the looks of it, if were a betting man I'd put all my money on this type of scenario occurring.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

From hemispheric perspective the last few frames of ECM are probably best we've seen all winter, too bad that it's now gotten itself a reputation for being more of a fantasy model.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I wouldn't put too many eggs in the SSW basket, knowing our luck it'll result in a mild anticylonic type pattern which will put the final nail in  this winter's coffin.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

If this bite of cherry ends up failing which the odds have started to lean more towards then I'm going to give this winter one more chance to redeem itself, if by late Jan/Early Feb there is still nothing whatever showing models then I'm probably throw the towel in, yes even then there's still March as we saw last year but back then  the building blocks were already there already there way before hand with Atlantic not always having it's own way.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I'm not sure  I can bare to look at this evenings output after that 06z run and it's ensembles not to the ECM ensembles which also seem unsure,  hopefully the Models now firm up on this cold trend and don't end up having yet another climb down.....

[One of the mildest Winters for some years?]

I'm pretty sure that I remember  the bulk of 11/12  feeling milder than this one has so far although I stand to be corrected.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

To say that I'm not even  remotely irked by the current ongoings over the pond would be a lie, hopefully the models are actually onto something this time around so us Coldies in the UK can also have a turn.

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Like a someone said earlier in the thread sometimes I wonder whether it's going to happen at all  but whilst the window of opportunity  for wintry weather  remains open  (which as we saw last year can well last up until late March) then of course it's foolish to write anything off indefinitely, if we do get something then hope it isn't like the February before last when I had to settle for freezing rain whilst others further east got snow.

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

It's there's a silver lining at all from this winter so far it's the fact that I've actually managed something in the way of sunshine a, at least it hasn't been just endless south westerly muck which could have quite easily have been the case in this sort of setup.