SnowObsessor90
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Posts posted by SnowObsessor90
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Can't say I'm all that surprised by backtracking this morning, had a look at the archived charts for 2010 last night and signal for prolonged cold back then was as clear as anything, that's never really been the case this time around.
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I'm still going to go with my initial view of this Winter being on milder side of average for now, no way am I allowing myself to get suckered again like early December last year.
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BEST CFS to date for November 2013! Its the run which reflects my thoughts N>E>NE
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10
It shows something 2010 like for latter part of this month into December, I wish!
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Why can't the likes of the Daily Star and Express just nip it in the bud for once, they're only serving to ruin it for us coldies
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So is the first bite of cherry at least looking likely to be gone or are people just overreacting as per usual?
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Early prediction-
mixed December, some anticyclonic colder days, mostly W/NW/SW dominated, maybe one colder spell from the N
January increasingly cold, possibly a SW start, changing SE/E with a potential later cold blast
February very cold, dominated by E/SE winds, increasingly milder later on after a very cold first half
I'd take the clear and colder variatio of anticyclonic failing the most preferred scenario, Christmas 08 wasn't bad for that very reason.
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Get ready for the inevitable mentions of Global Warming/climate change on here and in the media if the current projections in the strat thread turn out to be accurate....
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If nothing else I hope that these high night time temperatures we have currently don't become too much of a persistent feature over the months to come, that type of thing should be reserved for the Summer months only.
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Just goes to show really how not to get too downhearted if zonal is showing in the models. Can't see it lasting months. It will change again.
At that stage I wouldn't rule out a change to something or another at some point in December, failing "proper cold" then "faux cold" would do me just fine, on the other hand there is of the course the settled/mild option which would be even worse than what we have now.
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Personally I'd rather have this mild weather now rather than later, us coldies just have to just ride this one for time being and with any luck (in other words if the strat plays ball) the cold will arrive right on queue at some point in December
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One chart, from one run on the GFS, dated for 2 weeks away? How does this determine a pattern setup lasting the whole winter exactly?
I can see why some may not like the sight of a polar vortex positioning itself over Greenland but it is autumn...
To be fair I really don't see much difference between that and someone else cherry picking a random chart showing good Cold synoptics. it's just for fun. nothing more than that.
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For anyone interested in anything of the wintry variety over the next few months I suggest you avoid looking at the below image:
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Back when I used to know next nothing about weather patterns and what not I was willing Madden a shot, after I came on here though and started to learn more it didn't really take long for me to see right through him, I thought Vogan may had a bit more about him but after his fail of a White Christmas prediction and his subsequent backtrack it sadly became clear that he wasn't any better, the fact that he also now charges for those guess-casts just tops it off.
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The upcoming weather patterns may or may not give an indication of things to come but for now I'm just happy that we're going to see a change of sorts, personally I've been over this mild/warm settled pattern for months.
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Personally I'd settle for a more potent version of how things ended up panning out in December 2009 with the cold hitting us just in the run up towards Christmas, the weather can do what i likes after that.
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If the winter were to be of dry and bright and bright variety I may just be able tolerate it despite it feeling 'wrong' , a cloudy high stuck in SITU or a locked mild zonal type pattern would probably have me reaching for the prozac though.
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One I do have to say, I absolutely love Frosty/Karl whenever he's in full on ramp mode, hopefully future output will give him reason to continue being like that
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Well this afternoon just keeps getting better and better, as I said It looks I spoke way too soon.
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Cloudy and dull here today. Our default weather for June it seems!
Yup admittedly it has gotten warmer over the last day or so but that's not really saying much whilst things continue to remain like that.
lol just as I say that the sun is starting show signs of breaking out.
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Has anyone else here just had thunder?
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To be honest I don't think it's been all that great in this area of the NW either really, yes there's been plenty of sunny periods but that pesky cloud has gotten in the way a bit too much for my liking particular during midday to early Afternoon hours, Tuesday and Thursday I'll make exception for however as they pretty much perfect throughput.
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Well I can't say I was expecting that from the ECM, the beginnings of a new trend perhaps?
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The GFS seems to have stalled, I wonder why that is.
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Well the summer has now officially started, hopefully next week is merely a taster of the things to come
Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I guess all we can now I hope/pray for positive updates in the strat because if not then really do not see much point in coming for the next month or so (if you're a coldie).