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*Stormforce~beka*

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Posts posted by *Stormforce~beka*

    Storms / convective general discussion

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Well im back after cutting 2 lawns, and having been outside has lead me to believe that the weather is really quite rubbish at the moment. Overcast, very humid, but no thunder and no rain.. :) Still warm though. Am looing to the SW again for hope, and it looks like somethng may happen, but Ihave given up hoping today. Why do all you lot upthere get all the fun....No Fair!

    Certainly is bad for us this year storm wise. I can see us racing into July without as much as a rumble at this rate! Very bizarre.

    Storms / convective general discussion

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by *Stormforce~beka*

    Anyone got the Map for Estofex, what particular area is that text that Beka posted up relating to??

    Paul S

    Hang on i'll post it all hun :

    Storm Forecast

    Valid: Wed 13 Jun 2007 06:00 to Thu 14 Jun 2007 06:00 UTC

    Issued: Wed 13 Jun 2007 06:25

    Forecaster: GATZEN

    SYNOPSIS

    Low geopotential over Scandinavia, British Isles and W of Bay of Biscay yields a south-westerly flow over north-western Europe. Strong mid-troposphere jet streaks are expected to move across southern Scandinavia and north-western Iberian Peninsula, while rather weak winds are forecast south-east of the main upper jet. At lower levels, a wavy frontal boundary stretches from western Iberian Peninsula to northern France, and Baltic States. Warm air advection is expected from northern France to southern British Isles as well as over northern Poland, while cooler air mass spreads into Bay of Biscay/northern Iberian Peninsula and into Germany. While the cool air mass will be rather stable, warm air mass is characterized by inverted-v-profiles up to around 750 hPa near the frontal zone. To the south, rich low-level moisture has developed over Mediterranean, where diurnal heating will likely build CAPE.

    DISCUSSION

    Southern British Isles, the Channel region, northern France

    A cut-off low present W of Bay of Biscay will merge to the long-wave trough present over Scandinavia. Associated upper vort-max/short-wave trough is forecast to accelerate north-eastward into north-western France in the evening hours. This leads to rather strong south-westerly winds over western Europe, and quite strong warm air advection is expected over northern France, and southern British Isles. Air mass now situated over southern France will likely spread into northern France. This air mass is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates as indiacted by latest soundings, and diurnal heating will likely lead to moderate instability during the day. To the north, low-level air mass over the Channel region and southern British Isles will likely be capped, while instability is expected to increase during the day due to the advection of steep mid-level steep lapse rates. Mid-level height falls expected in the range of the short-wave trough will also lead to further destabilization. Convective initiation is forecast along a cold front that moves eastward over western France during the day. Given south-easterly low-level winds over France and weak to moderate mid-level winds ahead of the trough, some deep layer vertical wind shear is expected to lead to organized thunderstorms along the cold front. Low-level veering profiles will also be marginally favorable for supercells, posing a threat of severe hail. Given inverted-v-profiles, severe wind gusts are forecast with the stronger cells. During the day, thunderstorms may merge/organize ahead of cold pools moving ENE-ward over France. Bowing lines may develop, capable of producing severe wind gusts. Especially over northern France, low-level winds are backed to the east, while low-level moisture is also expected to be quite rich along the frontal boundary, and a slight chance for tornadoes is forecast. Further north, low-level air mass is forecast to be rather cool over the Channel and southern British Isles. Given strong QG forcing due to WAA and DCVA, as well as steep mid-level lapse rates advecting northward, convection is forecast to develop that may be elevated over most places. However, every storm that roots to the boundary layer will have the potential to be severe given quite favorable veering profiles, and a tornado is not ruled out over the affected region is the afternoon/evening hours. During the night, thunderstorms will likely go on, clustering into mesoscale convective systems. A moderate inflow of warm/unstable air from the south will likely feed the systems that will spread across eastern France, western Germany, and Benelux until the morning. Main threat will be severe wind gusts along the leading edge in the range of bowing lines, but decreasing vertical wind shear and QG forcing are forecast to lead to weakening of the storms.

    post-1583-1181733689_thumb.png

    Storms / convective general discussion

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Well you may have a stormchaser from Derby joining you tonight if this comes off. Looks like i'll be needing the Red Bull and Pro Plus a plenty!!!

    Before this i could get to see a storm here this afternoon - but there is just something so appealing about seeing lightning over the sea. I've never witnessed it b4. Could tonight be my night???

    Do it mate!! Drive down now and book yourself a room on the seafront somewhere (Southampton is Central to both the east and west) as I "think" there is a chance for tomorrow also ... If not it'll be a blooody good adventure for you!

    Storms / convective general discussion

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Thank you chaps! I'm going to text KellyF on the Isle Of Wight then she can shout us if she see's anything! Then i'll warn you northerners! LOL

    Any thoughts on this lot? I see theres a fair amount of it down there, and looks like its reamaining failry steady in development

    Pst your no aloud to to post them (copy right) If I whisper no one will hear us lol. Just for your info post the link to it which is thus: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

    I just looked at it and think its got our names on it. Well yours first :)

    Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Some moderate rainfall rates from two small cells just North of Portsmouth atm, upslope lift of the South Downs Escarpment perhaps aiding those particular cells too (presuming they're not anaprop).

    Nah think they are real mate. Just come back from Tesco's by the A34 and saw a VERY impressive cell to the NE. Looks like a real good cauliflower. Extremely dark bases. That will be dropping soon I think.

    Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Well we reached just below 25°C an hour ago, but the sea breeze has kicked in a nd put it back to 21°C.

    No signs of any build up, just some Ac and very shallow Cu well inland.

    Heya. Definately very close! It touched 24.3 an hour or so again and i saw a little tower shoot up but soon came back down as cloud came along and the temp dropped. Its now 23.9 so its defiantely touch and go. Its only got the next hour or so to do the job!!

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