leicsnow
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Posts posted by leicsnow
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January - pretty average
February - mild and more Atlantic driven than normal
March - very dry
April - very warm and dry
May - very unsettled
June - very unsettled with one potent but very short heatwave
July - alternating warm dry spells and mild wet spells
August - very wet
September - Quite stormy (shades of Katia) with a major heatwave at the end
October - After a hot start very warm and moist with warm nights
November - very mild
December - cool zonal before mild zonal
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Todays max: 7.4C
Todays min: 4.2C
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Hi Tellow.
I think you need to change the title of this thread as this is confusing some people.
To "write off" winter i dont know.
My answer is the time i would start to get worried, as you state above.
I've changed the title.
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AWT, if we had all the model technology and we were on this forum at this time in December 1946, what do you think would be showing up on the models with the severe cold in store for late January? What would we be thinking about the rest of the winter as a whole (although we'd have to consider the fact that it was rather cool even before the severe cold that winter)?
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Hail shower here now... 5.8c and dropping.
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If it's an observation, it's not a very good one as the intense cold and snow ended around the 27th.This time last year the whole UK was covered in a blanket of Ice and snow. Temps dropped to -19.6'c, ice froze in water pipes and water queues were all over Northern Ireland as people's taps simply froze up with the cold. What a contrast now to +14 degrees over Christmas and today gusts of 60mph battering northern & central parts, the only snow to be seen anywhere on the extreme scottish highlands.
I don't know wether it's a moan or a observation, but you've just got to love the variables between our winters sometimes. even though this one is far from over with...yet.
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Recently in a lot of threads, there have been people (myself included sometimes!) complaining about the lack of cold and snow and effectively 'writing off winter' saying they don't see any pattern change for cold synoptics for the rest of winter. Then others come back at them with something like "It's only the (insert date here)! Don't get worried until (insert date here)!" I was just wondering, when do you think is the right time to get worried if you are not seeing the weather you desire?
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They are publishing false information when they say "Last year Britain was in the grip of sub-zero temperatures that brought many parts of the country to a standstill." The severe cold and snow ended around the 27th December last year!
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I think some people should come over here,
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71706-spring-snowfall/
to talk about snow in Spring.
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Started off in the early hours as mild and rainy but later turning out to be a clear cool day.
High temp: 8.5C
Low temp: 5.0C
The 8.5 was reached overnight and stayed at around 7C in the hours of sunlight.
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It's amazing how much of the public consider February a Spring month. A lot of people I talk to would say "February is the end of winter getting into Spring". Considering March can do better than December is many certain set-ups says it all.
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I don't think any low land areas of the British Isles saw snow in April 2010 and certainly not 2007 and 2011.
Infact I don't think even the highest ground recieved snowfall in either 2007 or 2011.
The 1st day of April 2010 saw some low land lying snow.
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Since the turn of the century I've had on average about 1 snowfall each April, and lying snow isn't particularly uncommon even for me in the Midlands.
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I'd come over to the 'Spring Snowfall' thread I started last month in the Historic Weather section to avoid going off topic about this winter.
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Quite cool here at 6.8C & dropping. Clear skies too.
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7.4C overcast having rained overnight.
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Its not the first time John Kettley has made this type of prediciton. He did it about 10 years ago.
And did he get it right?
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I must say i agree with some of the posts about snow in march. Accept scotland and maybe north of england snow in march doesn't settel due to strong sunlight.
I don't agree. I live in the Midlands and I had settled snow in March 2006, March 2008, the last day of March/first day of April 2010, and more before all those. London have even had settled snow in April 2008.
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Every winter sets its own patterns Tellow, but yes, you could say that by having a mild half to two thirds of a winter could mean that we could have used up our mild quota for the winter and perhaps resulting in cooler weather in the early parts of Spring. But realisticly, you don't need a mild, bad winter for snow in Spring, the early part of the season is hardly different to late winter and we tend to get cold snaps every Spring because it really is the norm.
Spring 2008 did have snowfalls but where I am it wasn't as good as March 2011, but of course March 2006 saw my greatest ever snowfall. Excluding the battleground snowfall of 2006, really those cold spells weren't all that signifcant or unusual and during exceptional cold spells, -20C can still be possible in the highlands.
March in Scotland may not exactly see the most snowfalls of the winter, but it can see the largest snowfalls such as March 2011 (two feet in the highlands), March 2010 (two to three feet in the highlands) and 2006 (a foot in many areas). In a mild winter, March may see the best snowfall of the winter but really it doesn't always turn out all that special.
What interests me about Spring wintry weather is:
Whether you can get a big freeze like November 2010 during March (if November could have it, why not March)?
And are Battleground Snowfalls in April possible?
Indeed Spring snowfall seems to be far more common than Autumn snowfall, and in particular April has more potential than October.
I didn't get anything in March this year, but my location benefitted greatly from March 2006 and to a lesser extent the Easter easterly in 2008. 6th April 2008 gave me more than the latter (and the Easter that year was in March, so before that). I'm not surprised that -20C is still possible in the Highlands in March, because the cooled oceans can deliver relatively low minima in that month (even though there seems to be more variation between maxima and minima as winter progresses and we head into Spring, and daytime temperatures tend to pick up more in the sun).
In regards to whether a March scenario could compare to November 2010, I think the main flaw would be the stronger sun allowing temperatures in the day to pick up, even though November and March are seasonal equivalents in that November is the last month of autumn and the month before winter and March is the first month of Spring and the month after winter. In my experience March generally has lower minimum temperatures than November but higher maximum. Also, most late season snowfalls for my latitude and altitude tend to happen overnight, with a flaw following in the day but then a reload again at night, as seen for me in late February/early March 2005 which repeated for almost two weeks.
Also, I have on average about one day with snow falling in each April, and lying snow is generally not that uncommon. 6th April 2008 definitely proved that with lying snow as far south as London. To see snow in May for me is extremely rare (and almost unheard of in June), although I expect there is a little potential in May for yourself.
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A clear and coolish start gave way to overcast conditions in the afternoon but no precipitation. Temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, although still on the mild side.
High temp: 9.1C
Low temp: 7.3C
Tomorrow looking similar to what we saw today in terms of temperature.
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The cold spell was predicted by Roger J Smith back in Late October and forecasts from other organisations supported it closer to the time, but some of the snowfalls during the cold spell really weren't predicted well and even I had some kind of an un-forecast snowfall that I took some pics of.
I think the BBC tried to restrict light, local snow showers restricted to higher ground and north wester coastal areas and played down the snow shower activity. The BBC did not forecast snowfall for my location around the 16th as they predicted rain and hill snow to be around the SW corner of Scotland and parts of NI. The result was an organised area of snow that moved northwards into Central Belt (and the forecast confirmed that they weren't expecting anything north Ayr) during the early hours before reaching it's northern most limit. It dumped 2-3 cm that stayed for 5 days.
No hourly forecasts predicted snow which occured for me on the morning of the 18th, although it was very localised in my region as I live about ten miles from Leicester City, but very little to no snow occured in most parts of the city, and some of the villages surrounding mine got a significantly different amount. All in all I think my village actually got the best of the conditions in a ten to twenty mile radius of my house, and it sort of made up for the disappointment of not getting anything on the 15/16th when snow was forecast all night. It was great to wake up to and has made my outlook on December better than I thought it would be initially.
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How Did You Get That? Do you have a link?
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This really could be a trend, and could actually happen. On Christmas Day the GFS looked good for the 9th Jan and whilst it changed it's mind again yesterday, it's switched back to showing decent synoptics 9-11th Jan. Looks even better now the UKMO has joined forces. Maybe it will continue to switch back and forth but gradually become more consistent as we close in on the period? Could well be wrong though, but lets hope it's not.
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The CET currently stands at exactly 6C.
Friday 30th December 2011 Weather & General Chat
in Weather reports
Posted
Todays max: 8.4c
Todays min: 3.5c