leicsnow
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Posts posted by leicsnow
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So are we saying that Netweather has it all wrong then??
I have to say, they are OFTEN wrong :lol:
Well according to the Netweather 10 dayer the chances are I won't see snow tomorrow, at 45% snow risk. Lol doubt it.
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Well it sounds like my village (about 10 miles west of Leicester), may well be right on the battleground, especially since Roger said he expects "a wall of resistance" from Leicester to Cambridge.
Am I right in thinking this could bring some heavy falls and deep accumulations for me?
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We had a barbeque and sat in our garden on in shorts and t shirts at the weekend following that forecast - I think London got to 20C
Back to the CET
-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.
GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.
With pleasure! (I guessed 4.5 when it wasn't looking good)
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In the model discussiopn thread, GP mentioned the potential for a 'big easterly to end the month'. Are there any examples people can think of where easterlies at the end of February/start of March have delivered significant snowfall to the UK? I'd be worried convection from the North Sea would be limited due to colder SST's and potentially less cold upper air temperatures...
Well there was February/March 2004 and 2005, and also March 2006 which was a very good March for cold and snowy weather.
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You stand in the middle
Well I am within the warning areas of all the Meto's current warnings!
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In Leicestershire, the furthest away in the Midlands from both the east and west coasts, I really don't know where I stand :huh:
I think with temperatures for me going up to 2c after the snow on sunday and 3 or 4c on monday I probably wont get any long lasting snow cover.
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I wouldn't have minded February 1998 seeing the start of spring but only if December and January were decent for snow and cold... which they weren't.
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Youre in the firing Line mate.....Ian.
Am I in the firing line too?
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Where do you think I stand in Leicestershire (I live on the west side of Leicester city btw) snow wise?
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I think Feb 2008 was one of the sunniest on record thanks to the exceptional anticylonic warm period mid month. Feb can be a sunny and very dry month, it is not a month renowned for stormy atlantic conditions indeed I've known many a drier settled Feb than July.
February 1998 had a dry sunny and warm spell. Do you know why that happened and what caused it? I'm interested to know.
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Yes agree - many people say 'the worst is over' once you hit Feb even though you're only just making it to the coldest time of year.
Just shows how light levels and day length are so important in determining how a time of year feels.
Yeah not to mention how people always stereotype 'cold' with 'wet' and 'warm' with 'sunny'. In Summer this is true but in Winter it's the other way around!
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Yes however snow is more than possible in March.
Yeah I was just thinking that after I posted
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Am I right in thinking we are approaching a time when further stratospheric warmings won't affect the rest of our winter? I vaguely remember chino or someone saying it took about three weeks to take an affect on our weather (if it affects it at all).
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Now keep calm everyone it's only a discussion!
They should remain as they are as the statistics show the three coldest months to be winter and the three warmest to be summer.
But even if that leaves you not convinced the overriding factor is the position of the sun in the sky. The days are longest and the sun highest May to July. The days are shortest and the sun lowest November to January. This is the starting point. Now added thermal lag in (lets say 1 month...) and low and behold the seasons fit our current pattern.
If I could offer any potential change it would only be that November feels like a winter month since it is generally quite cold and very dark. Many people I speak to actually think of November as winter anyway. Still I wouldn't really make that change though.
It's true that many think of November as a winter month, when in reality it's usually rather mild (as well as the start of December often too). However, as you say it's quite dark as well and it's amazing how people will perceive it as colder when it's wet and dull (although this can be attributed to accompanied wind). Perhaps more surprising many people I know will say February is a Spring month, and describe it as "the end of winter going into Spring!" "The end of February is definitely Spring!".
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Well the 1st came in at 0.6C
GFS 12z would suggest dipping under 0C in the next couple of days and staying there for a few days. In fact by the 10th it could still be around -0.5C
If it was, it would require the rest of the month to average 5C, just to scrape above 3C by month end.
Looking at the overall profile i would say something below 3C is favoured presently. If it is 3.0C or less it would be the 5th winter month in last ten to be so which is not too shabby considering we had a run of 36 winter months prior to that that where the temp got nowhere near as low as that. In fact only 5 of those 36, made it below 4C
Yes it sounds promising for a nice CET figure for February. It'd also be the 1st in 5 winter months to have a sub 3 CET. It could 'make' this winter.
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You do take things very literally! Things aren't always as clear cut as black and white!
Yeah my maximum snow depth came from a battleground snowfall and you don't need extreme cold for that to happen. That's my only Spring battleground snowfall and all the other ones happened in winter - December in particular!
But really Tellow, getting snow and large snow in Spring is normal, getting the best of winter in Spring is normal because Spring is the transition from winter to Spring so expect the best of both March and summer to be found in this period. Spring isn't Spring without a wintry feel to it so taking the winter out of Spring is wrong! And other than the normal wintry weather element of Spring, March has other types of Spring weather that contradicts the concept of winter!
The reason I take things literally is probably attributed to the fact that I have Asperger's Syndrome (look it up if you're interested).
I agree with you when you say you don't need extreme cold for a battleground snowfall - in fact it preferably needs to be warmer for obvious reasons! I also agree with you about the wintry element of Spring and whatnot, in fact I strongly agree!
But really, for me in the Midlands, any lying snow or really anything more than a few wintry showers is rather unusual before Christmas, and particularly so before mid-month (as I said it's probably a different story for you in Scotland). I suppose that makes December 2010 all the more exceptional! IMO and for my area the first half of March has more potential (probably not exceptionally so though) than early December. So with that mind I consider Winter as mid-December to mid-March. Although as I said, it's just my opinion!!!!
The reason I started this topic was because I have seen posts in this forum which say things like "I often consider X part of X month to be X season", so I became curious!
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No! First half of December wins in my books in terms of far more snowfalls, cold snaps and the generall mood but it's a bit of a closer match!
It is probably the other way around for me further south, as in December during zonal periods the north can enjoy topplers while it's pretty average south of Cumbria. In March, however, we could benefit from a much more potent easterly.
I am quite surprised at your view considering March is what delivered your maximum snow depth
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Yes because winter is composed of the three coldest months of the year on average (Dec, Jan, Feb) and summer the three warmest months of the year on average (Jun, Jul, Aug)
Spring and autumn are inbetween these two.
Further to that, we have over 300 years of records to consider, to change it now would be a folly and inconvenient. As they say if it ain't broke why fix it?
Anyway, I wasn't supposing for the 'official' designations to be changed. Just personal 'opinion' thats all.
Let's settle this argument!!!!!!!!
I think it's more like half months to be honest, I accept that these statistics are valid and I was wrong but I'm sure it would be very different if you compared the first half of December to the first half of March. The two halves of December can indeed be very different, as a settling into winter state often happens in the second half. Meanwhile, in March, the first half can be quite chilly but during the last third the temperature usually tops 15-17c on a sunny day.
Dare I say it's similar with June and September?
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Alright, could a mod lock this topic now to avoid any arguments? I probably shouldn't have started this topic.
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That's extreme! Look! -27C has been reached in December, you get big freezes and more snowfalls and more cold days, and more winter feeling days in December than in March. You never get heat in December whereas in March, when you get the right conditions it could feel positively summery; likewise it could feel like the heart of winter.
Also, explain what you mean with "September/June"?????!
I think the more prominent example is the fact that September often beats June for warm weather (particulary in recent years), more so than March surpasses December for cold and whatever. Do you agree there?
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Totally agree! Very silly to for March to replace December. To me March is totally Spring with it's light and weather and yes, being totally Spring means very much wintry for March and very much summery for May!
December feels like winter, It's my snowiest and coldest month and it's the darkest month. When you get cold, snow, crisp sunshine coupled with the shorter Days and Christmas feel, you don't get anymore wintry than December!
I think the better example is the September/June one, rather than March/December.
25C has been reached in March before too - and it reached 20C in parts last March.. not very wintry to me :smilz38:
As has -21C. Very wintry to me!
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No.. it's silly to say March should replace December as a winter month just because in some years March is colder then December.. likewise for September and June.
Yes but it actually happens fairly frequently...
IMO the first half of December should be replaced by the first half of March as winter.
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Having 3 months for each season is easier..
Yes but should they be moved one month forward? Or back?
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The winter and summer solstices are several weeks before the middle of the seasons, and due to seasonal lag the seasons in the UK are meteorologically defined as being:
December, January and February - Winter
March, April and May - Spring
June, July and August - Summer
September, October and November - Autumn
However, in many cases March, a spring month is colder than December. In others, September is warmer than June!
There has been talk on this forum before about how March should replace December as a winter month.
Do you think the seasons are distributed correctly? If not, how do you think they should be distributed?
Just curious.
(I hope I started this in the right place!)
Model Summaries And Thoughts
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Tellow
Ooh the 06z GFS keeps a rather sustained cold outlook, with northerlies (noreasterly) producing snow more widespread and including western areas in FI.
It is the 06z though, again the run with the lowest verification stats, but if 12z follows it will certainly be looking good.