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leicsnow

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Posts posted by leicsnow

    When Should We Get Worried About Winter?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    A lot of members are posting on other threads when they will write off winter, many are saying mid February. I think this is a key date for many as at that time you are approaching the end of February, and in turn then end of meteorological winter, and it's the last chance for sustained snow and cold. For example, it may be just as likely to see cold and snow in late January as it is in late February, but people don't write off if nothing is snowing for LJ because you still have Feb, but in LF you just have March (and maybe April, for some more than others) to give a few convective falls.

    January CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The CET is on a downward path, I very much doubt once the current colder spell is finished we will see a return of sustained CET values of 7 - 7.5 degrees through until the months end. Yes Wednesday and Thursday will probably deliver such values, but the trend is colder thereafter and I see no signal for a raging westerly/southwesterly airstream during the last week of the month. I do believe a good finishing bet is around 5 - 5.5 degrees, with 6 degrees probably the upper limit, certainly a mild CET but not one of the mildest.

    Your right in saying the winter will go down overall as a mild one despite what happens in February - even a record cold feb can't cancel out a mild December and January, but a cold feb will prevent the winter as going down as a particularly mild one in the main and a particularly severe feb would probably mean it goes down as quite a good one. - if the cold extended well into March even more so (even though March is classed as spring, many people classed the second half of last nov as belonging to winter).

    I personally wouldn't class the second half of November as winter. If anything I'd count the first half as March as winter and the first half of December as Autumn! I think people forget just how exceptional the end of November 2010 was, and the start of December for that matter (it's not as unusual later in the month).

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    Pinpoiting precise dates for nonsense fairy-feller masterstroke weather is just as bad as Madden. Different style = same result. A lesson in the making Tellow, people who seem precise doesn't mean that they are any more intelligent than a Premier League footballer when it comes to weather.

    In Mark's latest video he belittles the people who he says hyped up this winter.

    However, he did this himself as he forecasted himself a cold and snowy winter back on the 1st of August!

    I just lost the respect I had left for this guy.

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Does he work (?) for Exacta weather, or has he not watched today's farming forecasts ?

    Why do people come out with crap like this and why do people believe them ?

    While he is indeed more or less a "fantasy forecaster", his style is rather different to James Madden's, who never highlights dates and instead highlights months. Mark seems to like pinpointing dates saying things like "the 15th through the 20th of the month will see the start of snow".

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    I hope that you're winter index ends up higher than 1988/1989. I'd also like to know how you calculate a winter index too. Perhaps, if you have a Spring Index you might find that it ends up higher than the winter.

    Also, didn't TWS have a tally of snowfall events in the winter. I'd be interested to see where it is - probably very low but Spring could make a real difference.

    Mr Data revealed the formula for the winter index on a topic he started back in winter 2006/07.

    The index is [10 x (the number of days of falling wintry precipt)+(number of days with lying snow)+(number of nights with a minimum of 0C or less)] divided by the mean winter maximum

    January CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I disagree, the cold isn't going to be prolonged enough for that I don't think. It's not going to drop 0.5C every time- it's only dropped that much because we are at such a high point at the moment. Last night wasn't even as cold as many expected, we barely even managed a frost here in the end.

    I agree. Also, as the month goes on it will become harder and harder for the CET to change.

    If the cet remains around 6ish we will have had two mild to very mild winter months in the cet region..

    And will also mean the winter will likely to come out as mild overall in the end, regardless of what happens in February.

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    This is what s4lancia posted on the 28th December on the January CET forum:

    Was going to wait but I've seen enough to plump for a chilly but not bone chilling 3.4 for Jan.

    Mild start, turning average to the 10th, cold snap 13th-17th, milder, colder spell around the 21st, briefly mild again before BANG 'proper' cold last week of the month with ice days on the 30th and 31st to drag the mean under 3.5!

    What strikes me about this post is the fact that he seems rather bang on with the cold snap starting today and lasting until the 17th. He was also accurate with the mild first third of the month and the mild weather that is supposed to follow from Tuesday. I hope he's right about the cold returning and the ice days on the 30th/31st!

    The Winter emotions and moaning thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So far it has been as extreme as the last three winters but in the other direction. I keep a running winter index in my signature and so far with just 2 air frosts and no snow to speak of 2011/12 is scoring worse than even 1988/89.

    Fortunately December was dry and very sunny, so thats a positive. Plus we've had a few periods of strong winds. However its undeniably a disappointing winter so far. Hopefully the second half will be an improvement and this winter wont take its place among the worst of the last 30 years.

    Could I ask how you calculate winter index? I would be interested to know.

    Thanks.

    The Winter emotions and moaning thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    I had a May air frost last year... but it's not really rare

    Spring frost is far more common than Autumn frost, due to the cool oceans keeping the land cool out of the sun, which is why in Spring the climate can become very continental, with warmish days and potentially frosty nights under constant clear skies. I've had a 17c afternoon followed by -1c overnight in April and it sort of reminds me of the Death Valley in Wintertime.

    Anyway back on topic I'm feeling more postive today (due to the models), but I'm a fool for taking each and every model run seriously (can't help it tho :D).

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    The Met Office aren't going to come out and say 'A big cold spell is coming with a lot of snow'.. they rely on the models too.

    Also, "A big cold spell is coming with a lot of snow" is not the sort of language they tend to use. They usually say things like "Wintry showers are likely at times, with some possible accumulations in X areas."

    I think the METO did the right thing by stopping their seasonal forecasts - their 16-30 day forecasts work much better alone. I believe they failed in trying to predict the a whole 3 or 4 months ahead but sometimes totally nail 1 month.

    January CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    My gut feeling is that after the brief cool spell this weekend with highs of around 3c, it will revert to mild again for the remainder of the month at least but not as mild as it has been, with highs of around 8 or 9c instead of 11 or 12c. That would make the CET 6c+.

    Hope I'm wrong though.

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tellow

    Whilst many were beginning to accept that this winter would be dire and mild to the end, the recent model output has certainly changed people's tunes.

    I think there is still potential and possibility that this winter could go down as a fourth cold one in a row if things play out in late Jan and Feb.

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