leicsnow
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Posts posted by leicsnow
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This is a strange one, but the amount of... earwigs... I've found in my house recently is weird!
Wasp? Goodness me that really is early!
Wasps hardly ever come out this early. Even last April in the warmth, when I went down south on holiday at Easter there were none, but plenty of bees!
In fact, wasps don't usually get annoying (going in houses) until around late July onward, then they are a menace until October!
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Funny how a couple of months ago we were expecting a cool Spring, and the March CET is liable to turn out well above average!
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Well yesterday was cloudy over here all day! Sunny today though.
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20c - late March
25c - mid-late April
30c - late June
35c - late July
40c - maybe, just maybe...
Yes, the first three predictions closely follow 2011. I think it will be similar to last year up until late June, with a warm April, mixed May, wet June with a late hot spell. Then I think that, unlike 2011, we will have further notable hot spells in July and August.
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We've finally had a below average month, the first since August. How normal is it to see this many consecutive months without a month with a CET at least 1.0 below average?
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I wonder what kind of position we would be in, and I mean particularly the East Midlands and East Anglian parts, if the expected dry spring was followed by a 1976-like summer?
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Well today's update says cooler periods possible "particularly in the north and southeast" rather than just the "north". Maybe some signs of wintry weather?
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If this continue's, we may be in a difficult predicament this time next year. If we had another summer like 76' we would be in BIG trouble (southern and central england anyway).
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It is strange that the run of above average months since September look set to continue. Surely the law of averages must change things now.
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So has the record of 19.7 definitely not been broken?
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I just looked back on some old threads, from early March 2008 where people mentioned how early easter was that year and suggested looking out for snow. Well what to you know, a white Easter for many it was!
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The Metoffice have specific words to descibe the weather depending on the season. In winter they will never use 'warm' for example, but instead mild or very mild. Yet in summer 'cold' wont be used, but cool or very cool.
There was a link somewhere to the descriptions on their site but I cant for the life of me remember where it is.
I think the word 'mild' should be used to reference both above average temperatures in winter and below average temperatures in Summer.
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This is why its silly to label the seasons based on the weather at the time rather than by the date. Early December might be Autumn-like in London on occasion, but on average it most certainly isnt.
Just because the temperature in London in September is similar to parts of Scotland in high summer, doesnt mean it should be called summer. Likewise, if you consider the average temps in winter further north, you might be able to 'argue' that in that sense London doesnt have a winter at all, when obviously it does.
London isnt a particularly good example anyway, as its a pretty unique climate due to urban heat island effects. Hop just outside of the M25 and the mean max temp in May is 15-16C with an average of an airfrost every 1-2 years. Definitely not summerlike!
Yes, probably wiser to use examples of places in the southwest such as Plymouth, who have overall milder Winters and cooler Summers than many places in the UK.
Anyway I heard that Summer is longer than Winter in the Northern Hemisphere because we are closer to the sun in Winter but tilted away from it. Apparently, the reverse applies in the Southern Hemisphere.
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With people mentioning how the Meto claim that 4 or 5c above average means "very mild", in Summer it would mean more like "very warm" or "hot". In Summer 4 or 5c below average would be very mild if you get my drift.
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March is most definitely not a winter month, at least not here, by a long long shot.
March is lighter, warmer, sunnier and drier than December and brings with it the first warm days of the year. You can even get sunburnt towards the end of March if you try hard enough!
For this area, I think the seasons are more suited to the following periods, judging by the weather here:
Winter - December 15th to February 20th
Spring - February 21st to May 5th
Summer - May 6th to September 20th
Autumn - September 21st to December 14th
I realised Summer was a bit longer than winter, but not by two months?
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The Atlantic really does moderate our weather - it disrupts cold spells in winter and hot spells in summer, making them warmer and cooler respectively. If only it could be the other way around, and make cold spells cooler and hot spells warmer!
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There is a lot to appreciate about this winter- it has not been all 'mild muck' as the coldies call it, despite predominantly mild temperatures. As Bottesford says, sunshine amounts have been unusually high in most areas for a mild winter and there haven't been too many of those dull, cold easterlies. I don't quite understand why very mild weather isn't also interesting to people, as extreme cold would be. Christmas Day 2011 was an amazing contrast to the previous year, seeing people sitting outside pubs in sunshine and 13C. I know that most of the people I was with appreciated the mildness far more than the freezing cold the year before!
Although most people on this forum would probably prefer Christmas 2010 (including me)!
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Part of James Madden's latest update,
Regardless of either scenario unfolding, there is still the prospect of February breaking records (one of the official months of winter and something that I was quoted as saying in almost every British national newspaper back in September/October 2011). The current mean Central England Temperature (CET) is at minus 4.5C below average for February to date, and with the further cold periods and snow that I am forecasting for the remainder of the month, this part of my original forecast still actually holds some clear validity.
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
Pathetic. In September/October 2011 he stated in almost every newspaper that he expected the coldest part of winter to be November to January, didn't mention anything about February being more exceptional than those months. "This part of my original forecast still actually holds some clear validity." No? It does not hold clear validity now just because you are still forecasting the same thing! Absolutely pathetic.
Rant over lol.
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There is an old saying winters back breaks in the middle of February. Whilst the chances of days on end of sub-zero means becomes less likely from late Feb onwards, severe wintry conditions can and often do occur well into March especially in Scotland and North of England. So whilst the prospects for deep intense cold begin to dissapear as we enter late Feb, I never rule out a potent wintry blast until late March, and April can throw a surprise or two but by then the chances become less realistic. Its like late aug through to late sept when a late summer heatwave can't never be truly ruled out.
In a sense I am quite relieved in a way when we get to late feb as my expectations for deep cold rapidly diminish therefore any cold wintry weather from late feb onwards is always a bonus, whereas from late nov through to mid feb my expectations for deep cold and wintry conditions are much higher. We are nearing that point in the winter when my expectations for deep cold and snow begin to diminish but not for a couple more weeks yet i.e. around the 24th normally the cut off date until then I remain firmly in winter mode.
But even after around the 24th, some wintry blasts like late Feb/early March 2005 are always nice to experience, wouldn't you say? Even if they aren't deep cold.
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The thing is snow at home is always better I feel. I appreciate it more.
I agree. Also, if we went somewhere where we were pretty much guarunteed snow each winter, there wouldn't be any need to chase it. We chase the cold and snowy weather subconsciously, knowing we get very different amounts each year, and ironically moan when we don't get it!
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I'm starting to come to the conclusion that this winter has run it's course now, as the current cold spell comes to a close, and the models don't look great for cold and snow. Therefore, you could say I'm "writing off winter" now. And I'm not that bothered about it really, I am dealing with it better than I thought I would, since it's my first winter as a weather fanatic on the forum (lol). However, many other posters with this attitude will say "bring on spring" referring to warmth, but as I have realised from CSS's wise words wintry weather is a part of spring as is summery weather, and while the sound of the word "March" puts an end to the thought of snow when I think back to years where March and even April has delivered I quickly think differently!
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C, you mentioned a couple of posts ago that you had some ideas for winter 2012-13 in terms of temp profiles and Ozone.. I know for many this is extreme FI but would be interested to hear some early thoughts.
I hope when this thread is archived it is not deleted as many of the evolutions and papers are an invaluable resource, hopefully it can be pinned to next years..
I too feel it wouldn't hurt to speculate an idea of a starting point for next winter. While it is deep FI there is a difference between seeing a forecast from James Madden forecasting the next winter based on sunspots alone than seeing a good starting point forecast based on stratospheric conditions!
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I knew it mate, I could tell by the Net Weather 5 minute radar that it was still moving straight South and wouldn't turn SW until it had already passed us. Such a let down, I expected at least 5cm from that.
Looking at your pic it looks like I had less than you too, due to being marginally further west most likely.
Well, we had a mere sugar dusting from that, I can't believe the models got the precip so far out at just t6, never seen all of them get it 100-200 miles out at that timeframe. NONE of them predicted that the main bulk of PPN would go down through East Anglia and the East Midlands, they all had it going through the central Midlands into West Midlands and then Wales.
Anyway, here's my street about 20 minutes ago...
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I'd be surprised if Death Valley was a good culprit - don't they have quite low minima considering it's a desert?