leicsnow
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Posts posted by leicsnow
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I feel ,with all due respect,that this thread is not healthy.In fact,to go one further, I think basing ones emotional state on something utterly out of our control stupendously dumb.Hey .I do it ,I,m not guilty of this,I have in the past been able to detach myself from the weather,and other stuff ,[i dont mean not be interested on in them,weather for eg] .I think what we need to is to detatch ourselves from be it weather,people,anyhing out of our control as it ultimately leads to an un balanced emotional stare which,I believe is not healthy.Much better to be detatced and then when sonmething like say snow happens ,[since this is weather thread then we enjoy it more when it happens from not living in a maybe future.as oppossed to a definate ,now...............................how very taoist of me,oh how wise I am ,[yeah right]......it is easier to say these words than act on them but ,[i try though] there is certainly wisdom within them.Maybe I should have started a thread ,'weather psychology'.
I think the emotion that seems to be felt on this forum is rather different to the emotion felt by many people when it rains, or is cold, etc. The interest we have is for exciting weather because many of us are weather geeks, but for most people sunny would be the best option.
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Rubbish. I always thought it would get very cold in January 2012 after all the hype (I was a newbie in the Autumn). I thought it would surely beat December but no, I had one day of 2cm lying snow in December which lasted a morning, but none in January. I think I won't get any more lying snow at all this winter!
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Ever since the models have flipped to mild, everyone has been making 4+ estimations. When they were showing deep cold at the weekend, we were all predicting less than 2. Funny how things change...
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Time to let off some steam...
All the eye candy from the weekend looks wasted, as it looks like we will be back to mild indefinitely from the weekend onwards, with no second chance. I actually wish the models hadn't gotten our hopes up predicting deep cold for the entire run, and then reverted completely to mild zonal again.
So it looks like I probably won't see any more lying snow this winter, so just one day with 2cm which melted by lunchtime. Some people completely snowless.
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Yes, I was and I also lived through 62/63.
Apart from several exceptional cold weeks in December 2010, along with an extremely cold last week of November, last winter was acually rubblish. Not a drop of snow after boxing day, an average January and an extremely mild February. Just when i was thinking it would be a repeat of 62/63 the whole thing went pear shaped and completely fizzled out.
The only winter that comes anywhere close to what i remember from my childhood was 2009/2010, and even that wasn't a patch on 62/63. In fact, it didn't even compare to either 78/79 or 81/82.
Seems that some people on this forum don't know what a REAL winter is.
Given what you've just said, I don't think you could ever be satisfied with any winter we will experience!
If you were disappointed with last winter then there isn't much you wouldn't be disappointed with!
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I have a horrible feeling that the new Atlantic takeover pattern set for next week cooked up by the models is a new trend, which will probably verify....
If the Atlantic does completely take over indefinitely after the first week of February, I think I will call it a day this winter.
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Were did that come from?
Roger's original forecast went with a colder start to February before becoming very mild in the second half (although maybe becoming colder again in the Spring). I think that's where that came from!
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The highlight of this winter was always going to come towards the end, as has been said many times before. It seems that we could still have a memorable event lasting some time, and this winter could be mentioned as the fourth in a row of colder winters. Over the last month, there have been GFS and ECM etc runs showing cold in FI, before backtracking again. The cold which is currently quite close range and has shown for a week or so seemed from the start the stuff which was going to "come off".
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I thought this thread should be becoming a bit quiter now.
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Well they say that unsettled milder weather could well gradually return from the second week onwards, but in their 16 to 30 day forecast they talk about cold to very cold conditions with some significant snow possible almost exclusively. Obviously they expect the cold conditions to return.
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-10C in frost hollow isn't a story as such, that happens nearly every winter in England (usually further north). I'm pretty sure most year for example, Benson gets around, or near -10C. It's not that unusual. That said -10C, at say the East Midlands airport would be highly unusual. Like you suggest though, -10C should be reached somewhere.. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't.
I live near EM airport and I have to say it seems during a frost period (like the other week) we don't get as cold as Birmingham. 13th-17th Jan this month, they had -7c but we only got -4c.
In December 2010 we saw -13 and -14c on some nights.
In terms of what i expect for the next 7-10 days i suspect that the high to the east will be largely dominant in that from Sunday i certainly expect no precipitation here until at least next Friday and would not be surprised to see the high retain dominance over next weekend.
My thoughts from next weekend onward largely expect some retrogression northward with conditions more conducive to convective potential, i am certainly not sold on the 'battleground' at all.
It is a real shame that the high is just a tad too far south as if pressure was even 10mb lower we could be looking at decent convection, as it is though, any claims of real convection away from the south east are unlikely to come to fruition.
In terms of temperature i suspect that England will be the main feature and if you draw a line connecting Newcastle, Leeds and Birmingham then i suspect anywhere east of this line will be lucky to see maxima above freezing and will certainly see minima well below. The trade off is of course with very high pressure there is unlikely to be snow however it should be sunny and dry.
My thoughts for Sunday/Monday snowfall are that it will almost exclusively be a Welsh event although above about 100m, 10cm widespread is plausible.
That sounds promising for me lol, and don't you mean anywhere east of that line would be unlucky to see maxima above freezing
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From TWO for my location, lol look at those temps!
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Just under a week ago, when the easterly was "cooking up", it sounded like it could be rather potent. But now, it seems the atlantic system will have too much influence and maximum temperatures (for my area at least) on Monday and Tuesday are going to be 2-3C possibly thwarting the chances of lying snow here. Meh.
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Seems more like a winter 2007/2008 now...
No snow in December or January, a brief, I repeat VERY brief easterly in early February, surrounded by mild mush and followed by cold snaps in March and April.
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It's looking increasing likely that many will have experienced a completely snowless winter (excluding me, thankfully), whether it be no lying snow or indeed no falling snow.
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And here was us thinking in November this was going to be our month this winter! Must tell us something...
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Huh. Now Mr Vogan is saying cold for mid Feb!
I think he should just give up now, accept that his forecast didn't work out and start getting realistic!
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Just thought I'd start the new upcoming monthly CET topic.
What's your punt? Mines 4.5.
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I think the CET really depends on how the rest of the month plays out (well obviously), since there is a considerable degree of uncertainty. I think if the METO's "mild option" plays out it really could be close to 7, if the "cold option" plays out it could be down close to 5. At this point, I would be really surprised if the CET ended up below 5, and would be equally surprised to see the winter come out with an overall CET of less than 4.
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I don't think this winter has been particularly sunny so far, at least not in my area. For me, December 2010 was far sunnier.
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If the rest of the month is going to be mild, I'd rather it be very mild and make for an exceptional 7c CET
That said, GFS 18z is looking better
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Could end up pushing 7c...
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Don't know about cold, we had maxes of 6/7c over the last few days which is pretty typical for the time of year but better than the rubbish milder damp rubbish of today.
So far this winter if we say a daily max of 10c is 'mild' and a daily max of 5c is 'cold' in my location of east Essex we have had 22 mild days already and only 4 cold ones - says it all!
What about the other 23 days?
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OK, hands up all those who think 12 degC is triple 4 degC ???
I thought the daily average in the UK for the winter months was about 7...
The Winter emotions and moaning thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
What a hateful, horrible 0z run