kate1
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Posts posted by kate1
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8 minutes ago, snowblind said:
I have looked at the text forecast and it is only mentioning scattered snow showers for Monday on the met office website. I am not worried about the computer generated app forecast but the text forecast is written by a forecaster presumably so that is my concern.
The snow was only ever forecast to begin in earnest late Monday/early Tuesday. The text forecast goes on to say the following from Tuesday onwards: 'snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event'. I think the word 'likely' with regard to periods of prolonged and significant snow is as good as we can hope to get from the MetO at this stage in the proceedings.
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50 minutes ago, Matty88 said:
I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm).
It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong, but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed.
We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!!
Of course nothing is certain until much nearer the time, but this Twitter exchange with Ian Fergusson sounds quite positive:
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Replying to @fergieweather
Steve Murr saying SE/E going to get as much as 75cm of snow in next few days, would imagine a lot of red MetOffice snow warnings will be issued
3 replies0 retweets0 likesReply3RetweetLikeDirect message
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I don't know that source but in wider scheme of things the latent risks are quite evident (and not just for that area). Inadvisable to go cherry-picking most impressive figures re snow, but clearly we can’t discount anything at this early stage. Await
@metoffice advice/warnings.
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19 minutes ago, Shunter said:
Agree. But given the almost unanimous agreement of abnormal cold and snow an early headline advisory ( heads up ) would appear sensible to those planning long distance travel over the weekend.
The discrepancy is extraordinary. The Met Office now have my location under a mixture of heavy and light snow continuously for two days from Monday evening, whereas the BBC is still suggesting breezy light cloud throughout that time apart from a single snow shower on Tuesday morning. It's very misleading for those with important appointments and travel plans if the Beeb with Meteogroup input now intends to sit firmly on the fence pretty much until the weather is actually happening.
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For my West Kent location the upgrades are coming thick and fast today from the MetO - like the snow, one can only hope - they are now saying heavy snow from Monday evening, then pretty much continuous snow for the next couple of days. Dare I allow myself to get excited?
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20 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:
Every run that comes up shows hardly any snow for the SE but plenty further north....really starting to get on my nerves! Troughs, lows, convective activity the lot just not down here! Come on surely its those in the SE turn
Not sure where you are getting this from - the MetO forecast shows heavy snow on and off for my location (West Kent) from Monday evening onwards, and this appears to be supported by the model runs too.
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2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:
And have you checked the latest 12z? Forget what the Meto write - they are basing their information on this mornings charts quite likely. Nothing is set in stone at all and is likely to change with every day until Monday - it may either mean the Meto UPGRADE their 'update' or they could even delete it if everything goes pear shaped. Either way Its way too early to go shouting about significant snow for all and the direction of the charts indicate its still all to play for whether any of us in the SE see significant snow next week.
As the MetOffice get to see a great deal of data which we don't, and as the updated extended went online at 3PM this afternoon, it doesn't seem terribly plausible that they based it on info which was several hours out of date. Tb be frank advising anyone to 'forget what the MetO write' and pay attention instead to the musings of a bunch of amateurs (i.e.. most, though not all, of us on NW) is a tad ridiculous.
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37 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:
The BBC were properly slapped for suggesting this yesterday.
They have just mentioned possible snow for some areas in their 1.30 forecast - they seem to be playing catch-up with the MetO at present. The Met Office extended forecast has been pretty consistent for days now.
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37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:Hello to the Net Wx comic, I suppose it's not tea you are drinking A
Good to see you on form and markedly misunderstanding the models as usual
take care young fella
oh just to confirm that the flow is going to come from east not west from later this week and into March, below the links to the latest NOAA 500 mb anomaly charts. They have been consistent for several days now with what they show this evening. Just how cold and how much snow not even Anyweather has any real idea. The synoptic models will to and fro about this over then next 4-5 days. So really interesting model watching.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
I have nothing to add in terms of the models because I am not sufficiently knowledgeable so it may be that this post should be removed - but surely this has to be THE post of the 17/18 winter? - as a beginner I have been horrified by the wilful misinterpretation of the models by some on here - it makes it much harder for those of us who are still learning. Anyway, thanks to the many posters, johnholmes of course included, who take a more intelligent and objective approach, and are keen to impart their knowledge to others - it's much appreciated.
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21 minutes ago, danm said:
Does anyone else also think the new video graphics overdo the snow?
For example, the latest video forecast on the website: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0 shows an area of snow moving down from NW England to SE England on Friday morning. However, if you look at the website it shows light rain all morning for London tomorrow. Not even sleet.
Video forecast:
And what does the forecast show? Light rain all morning!
So what can we expect tomorrow morning? Rain, sleet, snow? A mixture of the three? Yes, Helen Willetts says a wintry mix, but what if you were just looking at the graphics?
On Tuesday evening the graphics showed persistent snow showers for Wednesday morning for my neck of the woods in West Kent - no mention of this on the website, yet persistent snow showers was what we got, even heavy at times - the BBC website did not show any snow even as it was falling out of the sky for a 3-hour period. I've noticed since the Meteogroup switch that the video graphics seem to be more consistent with the MetO website forecasts but sometimes totally at odds with the BBC website forecasts - at present I'm putting my faith in the video graphics together with the MetO website. They need to get this sorted (funnily enough, the Weather section is currently unavailable on the BBC website, so maybe they have flagged this as an issue?)
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An hour ago here in West Kent - and still snowing lightly.
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We seem to have been the lucky ones here in Tunbridge Wells for the second time in a week - have a good covering and we're still getting moderate snow showers. I looked out at 5.30 and it was snowing quite heavily then - very unexpected.
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2 hours ago, Nick F said:
Ah, Calverley Gardens, have some photos of that park from Dec 2009, when I used live there, after a heavy overnight fall
I would have been there that day with my girls! - that was a snowfall and a half! I seem to remember seeing a couple of people sledging down Mount Pleasant first thing that morning.... all the roads were closed and awaiting a snowplough.....
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Think Tunbridge Wells was the sweet spot - we even made it to the BBC national website:
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Light but persistent snow still in West Kent. Have a good covering with no sign of any thaw. The pavements are absolutely treacherous and partner reports that the train to London was deserted so I imagine some commuters in the villages nearby couldn't get to the station. By Orpington apparently the snow has completely gone. This is the first decent covering we've had since 2013 so I'm happy!
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Heavy snow now with a light covering on all surfaces here in Tunbridge Wells
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3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:
Thanks Steve, yes poor Chris (RIP), he designed a marvellous spreadsheet, for the Cup, for me as well!!
Regards,
Tom.
Those were great NW days..... Chris is much missed.. So sorry to hear you've had such a difficult couple of years, Tom, and great to hear that you are getting back to your old self. Great to see some old faces on here tonight - hopefully we can reunite over a bit of the white stuff!
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Good to see a MetO upgrade for West Kent, with snow now forecast to start earlier tonight and the heavy snow symbol now showing for the first time tomorrow.... hoping our puppy gets to see the white stuff for the first time....
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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:
would deep and crisp and even excite you still rather than shallow soggy and not even settling
It would indeed.
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Lightest and dreariest of snow here in TW. I think I must be getting old because this no longer excites me in the least.
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Starting to settle in Tunbridge Wells - MetOffice app still has this down as sleet for me but it's very definitely snow, so if it does get heavier later as they are suggesting we could end up with a couple of centimetres. Most unexpected.
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Sleety mix now here in Tunbridge Wells. When I woke up at 6.30 the MetO were only forecasting light snow for me at 3PM - now it seems we may have heavy snow from midday though I would have thought there was zero chance of it settling. Just shows how incredibly hard it is to forecast snow.
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Strictly rain only here in West Kent but am chuffed for everyone seeing snow - and we still have almost three months of winter left....
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15 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:
Reckon we might get some more surprise showers later?
Sky darkening here in West Kent again - so hopefully!
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Hello all in the SE thread - good to be back. Snowmageddon (sort of) here in Tunbridge Wells and settling ever so slightly on the grass. I'm really not sure why some in the Model thread are wringing their hands in despair - we have actual, proper snow, in some areas quite a lot of it, and it's still technically Autumn.....
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
I think the yellow warnings do always say that to be fair. But getting one so far in advance is unusual, I think, and suggests it could well be upgraded nearer the time.