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Gael_Force

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Everything posted by Gael_Force

  1. Gael_Force
    The EC 32 is showing the high staying to the west and a trough to our east so I expect the updates are reflecting that even though there's room for movement to benefit us. From a link Knocker put in the ENSO thread, I see one of the tropical weather people suggesting there might be a storm generating period in the Atlantic for early August: coming up to the time of year when a single strong storm can shift the pattern quite a bit.
  2. Gael_Force
    I expect they were going off their own high resolution Arome model.
  3. Gael_Force
    The mean is not far off what we have at the moment .... a grey, drizzly mess.
  4. Gael_Force
    There must be a similar solution on a number of the EPS to have this degree of spread.
  5. Gael_Force
    ....and the new GFS goes live on the 19th. We've not seen much mention of the new version that has been running in parallel on Meteociel.
  6. Gael_Force
    You can add the latest JMA to the list.
  7. Gael_Force
    The next run shows the progression and illustrates the point Knocker was making about the ridge/trough progression in a mobile westerly.
  8. Gael_Force
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=101&map=30 Hour by hour above or slower gif below.
  9. Gael_Force
    Alstroemeria
  10. Gael_Force
    16.7c please.
  11. Gael_Force
  12. Gael_Force
    Week 3 and 4 looking better on latest JMA monthly.
  13. Gael_Force
    Where are you seeing an improving trend for week after? The two week trend seems to be downwards but maybe I'm reading this wrong as I have the link but not the skill to determine what it means other than it says Nina atmosphere.
  14. Gael_Force
    Atlantic is nearly as cold as it was in July '15.
  15. Gael_Force
    ....and Is there such a thing as a modiki Nina? The WSI image says ECMWF EPS ... surely that's the ensemble means.
  16. Gael_Force
    Good grief!! Anybody who has been suffering from heat exhaustion; you know where to go.
  17. Gael_Force
    There's a latest soundings page on Meteociel. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/sondage.php?map=1
  18. Gael_Force
    If you look at both the ECM and GFS in anomaly format, they both have an Azores 500mb negative anomaly. It's there for 3 out 4 weeks on latest EC ... either extending from Greenland to the tropics or sometimes as a cut off low.
  19. Gael_Force
    I cannot edit my above post ... here's 4 examples of verified lows from June 2012. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=6&day=1&year=2012&map=0&hour=12&type=era&region=
  20. Gael_Force
    I fully expect the on the day charts to be somewhat toned down but as far as actually seeing something similar, you need only go back to June 2012. Surprised that some are "surprised".
  21. Gael_Force
    15.3c please
  22. Gael_Force
    Did you see the latest on the cob; he had a lucky escape but might have been better to relocate him altogether. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-39991386 Witnesses to the latest attack, on Saturday, described three or four springer spaniels pinning the swan down as he tried to make his way down the beach.
  23. Gael_Force
    AKA Nino killer...??
  24. Gael_Force
    Very representative of the ice destroying dipole anomaly of that year. The long rangers have a big positive anomaly where the blue is over Scandinavia so we can expect a turnaround, all being well.
  25. Gael_Force
    The weather you get is not predictable but I've read plenty of science papers that show predictable cycles in climate. They're not necessarily sure of what drives them but they are visible in a variety of proxies.
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