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Everything posted by Gael_Force
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Gael_Force replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I was musing these patterns..... SSW Canadian warming in November/December is associated with a later winter Scandinavian high. We had a very strong mid March warming which was in focused in that region. Have we been seeing the synoptics of an epic winter, play out in late Spring and early summer? -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Gael_Force replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is NOT the media suggesting anything. They are reporting on scientific studies with a good dash of hyperbole for headline impact !! -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Gael_Force replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think there is any correlation other than a propensity for more meridional patterns in low geomagnetic periods. It will depend where we are positioned in the wave pattern when it gets stuck. Not sure where we are in the solar cycle but the early upslope is usually when these conditions are most likely. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Gael_Force replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The first image is multi-model for sea level pressure. As you can see, no detail as is to be expected; better to use heights as a very rough guide. all other parameters here:- Meteociel - Modèles de prévisions saisonnières de 1 à 6 mois de Copernicus C3S WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose les différents modèles de prévisions saisonnières mensuelles de ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO, NCEP, DWD, CMC, ECCC et JMA -
A master of camouflage in the birch tree twigs !! Buff-tip BUTTERFLY-CONSERVATION.ORG When at rest, the wings are held almost vertically against the body with two buff areas at the front of the thorax and at the tips of the forewings which look very like the pale wood of the birch. The rest of the...
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Gael_Force replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have in memory a recent SSW that did not downwell at the time but it did have an effect on early Spring. Anybody remember which year that was? -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Gael_Force replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The easiest and quickest way to do that is to remove the like buttons. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Gael_Force replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, I'm amazed at the reaction to that inaccuracy. Some models with more layers may be better able to create continuity/accuracy through the levels but to claim they are two separately modelled entities is just plain wrong. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Gael_Force replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Gael_Force replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Todays snow satellite illustrates your point well. Big beefy snow showers (red tinge) as the arctic parcel comes south. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Gael_Force replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
15 day meteogram for Nottingham, strong signal for northerly wind day 9 to 11. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Gael_Force replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The only issue I'm aware of is lack of flight data on a day or two over the holidays. Flight data must have been reduced/impacted all through this strange year; has it made a difference to the accuracy statistics? -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Gael_Force replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Did someone mention insular Cannot remember ever seeing such a perfect bullseye of low heights centred on the BI Just realised that the ECM charts are clickable for meteograms. ECMWF | Charts APPS.ECMWF.INT -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
Gael_Force replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Meteociel has a whole panel of charts to compare, you just need to click on voir panel multimodeles. -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
Gael_Force replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 10 http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/12/23/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020122300_240.png Day 15 http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/12/23/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020122300_360.png Scenarios we would have given our eye teeth for in years past. The strength and longevity of the Greenland heights anomaly. -
Looks like it is from the DECIDER charts. Decider WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Choose Decider to give fast advice to forecasting teams or traders working in weather-sensitive trades.
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
Gael_Force replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If you know the years and dates, the Japanese site has 5 day means for 30, 100 and 500 heights. 5-day Mean Figures of Atmospheric Circulation DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP Climate System Monitoring / TCC- 1,801 replies
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Model output discussion - Winter approaches
Gael_Force replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Brecht (sic) ... perfect timing for the Beast to put in an appearance. No science, no teleconnections no gut feeling, just the simple law of Sod. The east wind is probably the only visitor that can have unfettered access to the UK. -
Currently closely tracking 1995 and 2007 .... both years just before solar minimum was called. Who can forget December 1995 but 2007 was unremarkable. Nothing to be gleaned from that but the law of Sod dictates there will likely be some sort of beastly intervention when services are stretched owing to other pressures.
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On such charts, the concept of the OPI was born. A snapshot of 2010 with other dates and level data here. 5-day Mean Figures of Atmospheric Circulation DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP Climate System Monitoring / TCC
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Is there a link to go with image? Wondering if they give a reason for it.
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Storm Alex - early Oct MeteoFrance
Gael_Force replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Gust 186 kph registered at last reading.- 103 replies
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Storm Alex - early Oct MeteoFrance
Gael_Force replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I don't remember seeing anything similar to the modelling of Alex. Is it because the tiny surface feature gets trapped under the cut off upper low that causes it to do a loop while remaining intact?- 103 replies
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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.
Gael_Force replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It seems so. https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all