Gael_Force

A range of satellite products for those that are watching developments today. http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

HIRLAM lifted index charts on Weather Online. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=aemet&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=lftx&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Here is the 3 day outlook from the French orage specialist site, Keraunos. http://www.keraunos.org/prevision-orage-tornade-france-moyen-terme.html I'm not sure if you read/speak French; if not, Google will do a passable job. Regional radar http://www.meteo60.fr/radars_index-ouest.php Real-time lightning for a small cost http://temps-reel.meteorage.fr/service_navigation.php

HIRLAM has some very heavy rain forecast from the MCS that is expected to form tomorrow afternoon in N France. http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3065/hirlamfr-2-30_gbf9.png http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1983/hirlamfr-2-33_omj6.png

I'm a bit long in the tooth to be computer literate but was wondering if some of these problems are down to people altering cookie settings. My son has advised me to leave well alone as it may cause me problems in loading pages that I use regularly.

Thank you. I was feeling quite put-down after Cooling Climate's stiff rebuke for including links to medium and seasonal model output.

Apparently this is a very unusual occurrance. http://www.irishtime...breaking22.html snip "A spokesman for the British Geological Survey, which monitors seismic activity in the UK and Ireland, said the quake happened just before 9am, 60km west of Aughleam near Belmullet. He said it was very unusual to have an earthquake of such magnitude in the area as it had never happened before."

I don't know if this is the right thread but will use it for now. A lot of comment on the CFS long range forecasts but I don't see much mention of the other meteorological agencies who provide ensemble prediction for monthly and seasonal time scales. JMA http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html KMA http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/forecast/long-range1.jsp CMA http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=118 Sample of charts for the latter part of June. http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/md/TC2012061/TC2012061GL_T2D2_1.GIF http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/md/TC2012061/TC2012061GL_T2D3_1.GIF http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201205.D3112.png To be treated with the same caution as all LR weather products - it is something else to look at.

Busy eastern Atlantic picture today - winter type storm to the north and possible early tropical cyclone formation near the Azores.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Another early invest - 92L

What might be bigger news is happening in the fields at lower levels! ...and, I don't see much in the way of relief for the farmers in the north. Persistent rain to flood the tramlines and prevent spraying, temperatures struggling to reach double digit maximums, lack of sunshine to provide energy for plant growth.....the list goes on, unfortunately.

Full report of the site inspection and meteorological conditions by Keraunos network. http://www.keraunos.org/dossier-tornade-seysses-29-avril-2012-tornade-france.htm

The low is forming in the area of disturbed weather on the Costa Almeria, SE Spain. http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/satelite/masas

A very unusual system for any time of year, more so on the penultimate day of April. The high res models (NAE, WRF, HIRLAM) make more of it, being deeper and slower to clear to the west. Copious amounts of rainfall and strong winds from a non prevailing direction will make for a thoroughly horrible weekend.

This is a nice link for looking at airflow in different levels above us - just change flight level at the top right of the map. . http://www.vigilance-meteo.fr/en/weather/weather-for-professionals/aviation-weather/europe.html#profi-fl050 The other animations of forecast weather are good too and all options are available for other parts of the world.

Anybody going for a low figure for May could face the charge of being influenced by recent press speculation. I'm going to make a prediction this month (if I can jump in in the middle?) for the reason that I think something unusual is happening and it could lead to some interesting stats. I see the new dipole circulation modelled on the NH view and we all know where that led in December 2010 - we've seen it in winter and in summer but as far as I know this is the first year we have seen it in spring months. Might be temporary, might be a huge inaugural bust ..... I'll go for a May CET of 9.2c.

CreweCold, on 23 April 2012 - 19:15 , said: I agree that the pattern over the last few years has been for pressure to build strongly out east giving places like Moscow record warmth. I have noticed myself that weather patterns have been repeating and persisiting for some time for a good while now. I have no idea what is causing it.....could be low solar activity or even as a result of climatic shift resulting in positive reinforecement/feedback of a certain weather type in certain geographical areas. Still too early to comment on summer weather though as even within broad patterns, smaller pattern changes cannot be precluded. I notice that it hasn't been given much recognition by certain members, possibly for fear of sounding 'out there' or sensationalist, but I have noticed it and IMO it's not normal. I have no scientific basis when I say this, but I get the impression that the building blocks for a southwards migration of the arctic tundra could be being laid. Something which my (very clued up) geography lecturer is convinced will occur within the next 50 years. I noticed there had not been much discussion on this forum of the many recent papers on this subject. The scientists are puzzled too - hence the variety of theories that have been postulated. It has been agreed that a new circulation pattern has been in evidence over the last few years - cause attributed variously to Arctic ice loss and/or changes in solar output. Most of these papers have considered the causes of recent cold winters across the NH. Not seen much about the summers as yet but it is the same pattern that causes both; dubbed as the Arctic Dipole Anomaly or warm Arctic, cold continents anomaly there is plenty to be found with a Google search. Regarding the comments on shutdown/weakening of the NAD; recent winter patterns have shown us that we can experience truly frigid conditions in western Europe while the NAD goes about it's business as usual. Depriving the landmass of the benign influence of westerly winds and substituting an mP or cP airmass is all that is necessary.

740 WHXX01 KWBC 180045 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0045 UTC WED APR 18 2012 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120418 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 120418 0000 120418 1200 120419 0000 120419 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 33.9N 58.5W 33.3N 59.7W 32.1N 60.7W 30.1N 61.3W BAMD 33.9N 58.5W 31.1N 58.3W 30.1N 54.8W 31.2N 51.7W BAMM 33.9N 58.5W 32.0N 59.2W 30.2N 57.7W 29.4N 54.7W LBAR 33.9N 58.5W 32.6N 59.4W 31.4N 59.4W 30.6N 58.7W SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 120420 0000 120421 0000 120422 0000 120423 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 28.4N 61.2W 26.9N 61.0W 27.0N 61.5W 28.3N 63.4W BAMD 32.9N 49.7W 36.0N 46.5W 39.0N 43.2W 41.2N 39.3W BAMM 30.0N 51.6W 32.8N 46.3W 36.3N 42.7W 39.0N 41.0W LBAR 30.4N 57.7W 30.3N 55.7W 29.6N 52.4W 30.4N 47.4W SHIP 29KTS 22KTS 22KTS 27KTS DSHP 29KTS 22KTS 22KTS 27KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 33.9N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 13KT LATM12 = 35.3N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 13KT LATM24 = 35.1N LONM24 = 52.6W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 40KT CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 120NM $$ NNNN

Just a reminder that fantasy island is a term coined on the virtual weather blogosphere - we can call the lower-res output anything we like! The term is not confined to GFS - the chart in question is from the Australian model. If you wish to be pedantic, at least be accurate.

Just two years ago, south of France had very heavy snow from a similar set up to what is being shown in the models. The uppers were colder than currently forecast and delivered record breakingly cold daily maximums for the Riviera. That snow lasted for at least two days on the beaches of the Mediterranean, longer elsewhere. Dates were eighth and ninth of March 2010 if anybody wants to look in the archives.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ILANCASH70&month=2&day=15&year=2012 15/2 for Fulwood, Preston.

This sounds similar to the Arctic Dipole Anomaly which has been evident in both summer and winter over the last few years. Does a SSW filter down to create the ADA or is it a separate event created by cross polar circulation at the surface rather than impacts high above the arctic?

Good evening, currently in SW France. Will report any obs tomorrow am when strong winds are forecast for the Landes area. Tonight the current obs for NW France. http://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/temps-reel.php?region=no&duree=1 Top 20 gusts, updated hourly. http://www.meteociel.fr/obs/classement.php?mode=1

I think people assume that the NAD had slowed or shut down in past cold periods - that doesn't need to happen - if atmospheric circulation patterns are altered with a blocking high in the arctic and atlantic, our warm winter air source is cut of and changes to a direction from north through to east as happened last december