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Gael_Force

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Everything posted by Gael_Force

  1. Gael_Force
    Had a look at the NOAA analogues for the March CET competitition and was intrigued by the number of very cold March CETs that were appearing (also included the record warmest as well '57) - a look at the archive showed '55 and '58 both had -10c uppers over the UK in the second half of March. The other years were '69 and '62 but no -tens in second part of month.
  2. Gael_Force
    A firmly on the fence 6c for me, please.
  3. Gael_Force
    Well said Nick. I was thinking this is a parallel universe where one is having a gun held to the head whilst being forced to view model output. If you 'know' how bad the bloody model is - please ignore it - let the rest of us make up our own minds without this repetitive whinging!
  4. Gael_Force
    Snowking wrote this in last thread - Well it would be very interesting for you to point me in the direction of an NMM output that current stretches as far as Sunday at the moment, as I have been unable to locate such an output? There is WRF NMM output available up to +120 hours but I've no idea about the accuracy. http://www.meteocenter.eu/
  5. Gael_Force
    Where is the last thread? - wanted to catch up on earlier discussion.
  6. Gael_Force
    My link to the ECM postage stamps still works. {http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/} I've bracketed the link for copy/paste in case the automatic forum contraction is messing it up.
  7. Gael_Force
    It's a couple of days out of date but shows the difference between the MetO and the ECM ensembles for Exeter -locations to the east not so marked.
  8. Gael_Force
    Surely that is relevant - if months are now coming in well below the last thirty year average it is bucking the ever upwards trend we are told to expect.
  9. Gael_Force
    Here's the link for the KMA long range forecasts. http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/forecast/long-range1.jsp#
  10. Gael_Force
    I'll go for 4.4c, please.
  11. Gael_Force
    That is exactly what the CMA ensemble mean shows for the period.
  12. Gael_Force
    I posted this in another thread - it's the tabulated form of the archive. The table of events since records started being kept. You will get the key and comments from this article. http://www.geo.fu-be...pole/index.html
  13. Gael_Force
    The table of events since records started being kept. You will get the key and comments from this article. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html
  14. Gael_Force
    Although this has long been studied in niche scientific circles, I'm sure it is thanks to you and others who have provided threads such as this to afford the subject a much wider public appreciation. The scientists are now responding to the new raised awareness by increasing the content of their briefings and forecasts.. Good job ALL
  15. Gael_Force
    Like ECM 32 day report, JMA maintains strong northern blocking on its week 3/4 ensemble mean.
  16. Gael_Force
    The planned update will lower to 10 hPa - currently, as Sylvain states, at 0.1hPa Page 5 of the PDF sees UKMO wondering why this is being implemented. http://ee.nmt.edu/~sparc-da/sparcpresentations/DJackson_pres.pdf Thanks Nick, very useful link.
  17. Gael_Force
    Thanks for that - can you provide a link for the Martineau list of warmings please. With regard to winter 78 - 79, there was a Canadian warming in December 1978 - that may be a reason for the cold prior to the SSW at the end February
  18. Gael_Force
    A look at the current analog years show the majority with cool/bitter CET values.Nothing showing cold in the current NWP but I'll take a punt at 2.9C
  19. Gael_Force
    Haven't seen a response to this - the blue run on the London ensemble is the GFS run, not the ECM control. There is usually a big difference in the later stages of the runs.
  20. Gael_Force
    All the GFS runs are archived on Meteociel so you can just check back as long as you remember which run it was. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1 Alternatively, you can save an individual frame by clicking on the floppy disc symbol above the chart.
  21. Gael_Force
    Page 55 of this thread - post # 1090 has the links for all the archived strat threads.
  22. Gael_Force
    A good write-up of the stratospheric events of January 1963. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281964%29003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
  23. Gael_Force
    Looks to be similar location at +384
  24. Gael_Force
    Looks to have been some activity at the beginning of December 2009. No other charts for then till somebody locates the 2009 thread if there was one?
  25. Gael_Force
    Aren't we more used to seeing tits go upwards rather than dowwards!
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