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Gael_Force

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Everything posted by Gael_Force

  1. Gael_Force
    Perfect structure - a deadly doughnut.! Five million people in the direct path of this monster. Fift
  2. Gael_Force
    James Reynolds (typhoon fury) twitter feed. https://twitter.com/typhoonfury This is a bit alarming.
  3. Gael_Force
    They are upping the wind estimates considerably - T numbers at 8 and 165 knot winds. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/11/07/13/mass-evacuations-philippines-ahead-super-typhoon
  4. Gael_Force
    Maybe so - I posted the Nov '10 run in the winter thread yesterday - have a look at the NH pattern, it all started with a sharp Pacific Ridge and the response to it. It runs like a model output, just mouse down the dots. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=11&day=16&year=2010&map=4&hour=0
  5. Gael_Force
    The 500 height charts for each of the winter months.
  6. Gael_Force
    What a magnificent beast this is turning out to be.
  7. Gael_Force
    There is very little to see - UK is white for temp and precip when skill mask is applied. Without, Jan and Feb show cool/cold.
  8. Gael_Force
    It was certainly a hot topic on some of the continental sites - large parts of Europe had a very short growing season in 2013 with the warm July and August sandwiched by a very cool and wet June and September. It was supposedly very typical of the historical records of the Dalton.
  9. Gael_Force
    Not necessarily, low solar causes wavy jet stream - therefore just as likely to benefit from the ridge as wallow in the trough. The trick is in guessing where each will be to get a successful forecast.
  10. Gael_Force
    Given the solar state has been fairly constant for almost a hundred years, the value of this analysis may be open to question. I suppose ongoing research, now that we are back to low ssn, will find other reasons why Europe is an anomaly; then again, maybe just a case of changing synoptics affecting Europe more than most.
  11. Gael_Force
    Gavin has provided the archive link for GFS runs for 2010 - here is the month of November as it actually happened (in the format of a chart run). Just click apres to get the second half of the month and into December. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=11&hour=0&year=2010&map=4&mode=2
  12. Gael_Force
    We do not have European records for the same length of time as the CET record, the ones we do have cover the Dalton - quite variable even at small global geographic distances.
  13. Gael_Force
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24817487 I wonder if they have been reading the Express, subscribing to Madden or some other source for their winter LRF.
  14. Gael_Force
    Indeed - something we have seen a fair bit of in recent seasons. If solar weakness is altering jet stream positioning to meridional extremes, you can be warm, cold or in wild weather where the air masses clash.
  15. Gael_Force
    GFS going for three in a row.
  16. Gael_Force
    I would agree; we have the benefit of knowledge being on weather forums - the general population rely on weather warnings to make any advance preparations, this has not been the case in this instance.
  17. Gael_Force
    I'm guessing most of what is on this list will have appeared somewhere in our various threads - might be a useful one-stop for members new to the subject. http://p-martineau.com/stratospheric-sudden-warming-references/
  18. Gael_Force
    Nice capture on ASCAT.
  19. Gael_Force
    Seems like scientists are facing the same problem. http://www.carbonbrief.org/5162.aspx Newish paper on the subject. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n2/full/ngeo1698.html
  20. Gael_Force
    29/12/12 07/01/13
  21. Gael_Force
    8.4c please.
  22. Gael_Force
    This is a very detailed look at the stratospheric conditions during winter '62''63 - it was written in the summer following the event so will be lacking in a lot of the technical detail that has subsequently been added to our knowledge. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281964%29003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
  23. Gael_Force
    A whole raft of warnings across W. Europe for tomorrow. http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/0/EU-Europe.html
  24. Gael_Force
    If that is the KNMI HIRLAM it should be close to the ECM as it is what the model is initiated from i
  25. Gael_Force
    You'll get 3 hourly increments on the Icelandic site after the run is complete.
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