Gael_Force

Something else changed around the the era highlighted above - a rapid decline in solar activity. We need to look what went before the Maunder we are so familiar with.

@ Vorticity. Thank you very much; good news if a respite can allow the relief effort to continue without more weather problems. I'll bookmark the links in my growing tropical file.

Vorticity, or anyone else - the GFS kelvin wave forecast indicates another very active period for later this month - could that indicate continued strong cyclone activity in the area of the Phillipines?

TD Zoraida now heading in to add to misery and hinder the relief effort.

You can. http://www.shelterbox.org/ http://www.redcross.org.ph/

http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/92-years-of-rememberance-day-photos-help-cambridge-professor-document-climate-change.html

I don't think any validity is attached to these conclusions. Firstly, the pictures are from a Sunday closest to the eleventh - huge variability in November weather - cyclonic gales to quiet anticyclonic frosts, a lot of change possible in a seven day timespan. Secondly you would have to look at all the temperature and rainfall influences throughout the full leaf season - I'm surprised this is even being considered in scientific circles.

JMA have their first warning, now on the tracking map. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

On the subject of evacuating for storm surge, there was a pertinent comment by a poster on a hurricane forum, where several local residents were participating. They were used to precipitation flooding but seemed to be unaware that there was a threat from the sea -when it was pointed out that wind damage would be like an EF4 tornado followed by a tsunami they realised staying put had maybe not been a good idea. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=115958&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1200

GFS has it on a horrible track for all the pour souls with no shelter after Haiyan. Edit CMC ditto. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

With the passage of Haiyan, an immense storm for such a southerly latitude, and the very active WPac year we have seen, I was looking for historical references. I came across this paper on typhoons in China, it is relevant to this topic because of the references to the dates of greatest activity. Could there be any link with current low SSN and hyperactivity in the basin. I wonder if any of you have institutional access to the paper and could comment on the findings. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/0004-5608.00253/abstract

Just above the February temperature chart.

On the Meteociel ensembles. Use the Europe wide view and click your location on the map - new screen opens with the ensemble then select what you want from the choices at the bottom of the graph. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

I think the fodder for all the horses might be a bit scarce and expensive when the next grand minimum (NB. not Global ice age) kicks in.

Try Storm2K, although primarily Atlantic focus - they cover all basins, are well moderated and plenty of professional meteorologists contribute. Haiyan thread link. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=76&sid=62679c959c3274c90ccc4877e6abc810

There you go - not precise but it's for the centre of the central belt.

I know this, doesn't prevent the pedantry and red herrings from occurring.

If that sentence refers to Mike Lockwood, it might be worthwhile to note his opinion on the term 'little ice age'. Weather forum threads under this title do not do well for a variety of reasons - might I respectfully suggest a change of title to something that specifies the effects are regional.

It is further complicated by some of the local agencies using 10 minute winds and others 1 minute winds - the earlier figure of 96mph was a 10 minute one - in our familiar formula that would have been considerably higher.

There is this list - http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

Live radar. Courtesy of Brian McNoldy, RSMAS/Univ of Miami)

Weather station data for Guiuan - should be near the centre as it makes landfall. http://www.weatherhq.com/weather-station/guiuan Wonder how long it will survive?

Intensifying right up to landfall. I'm not sure what their building codes are but there is bound to be massive damage under the core, equivalent to a very strong tornado with the wind speeds quoted above.

It is showing classic annular characteristics - if I remember correctly these maintain intensity and are not subject to erc fluctuations.