Gael_Force

The blog post to which the reanalysis applies. http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2013/09/qbo-invesigation.html Certain similarities with the Z500 from the GloSea model which is shown on the previous page. Seems to be a common theme among models for this winter, strong northern blocking, a deep Mediterranean trough and a split US with warm west and cold east.

It may just be that the search for cold and snow thread is not your natural habitat.

It is from the updated GloSea5 - been in use since July - wonder if the tweaks will make any difference to the accuracy; http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

That's an interesting one in 1905 ( but shouldn't it be 7.1c rather than 7.5c) - last time we were approaching a solar maximum as weak as the current one.

The UK is such a tiny speck on the global mass it would be impossible to use analogues as a forecasting tool - for the wider picture it may have some value. The forecast up the page is based on analogues, I was just pointing out that the current/projected patterns must have some similarity (on a broad scale) for it to feature in the current list.

He's working off analogues ......what happens to be the top of the current analogue list from the NOAA GFS Ensembles?

It is certainly used by the professionals across the Pond. The problem here is the way it is being presented by a few posters - reams of charts with comment that is rendered meaningless when the charts all update to the current set. It has no value to anyone looking back through the threads or for future evaluation.

The taxpayers are getting forecasts all day, every day of the week - the business side of things is based on probabilities - how can it be any different at seasonal time span?. This summer is a good example of that; nearly all forecasts were for the lower end of the temperature spectrum.

My thoughts are that it may be impossible to find meaningful analogues. It is a bit of a cliche to use 'uncharted waters' but that, in effect, is where we are at the moment. Recent papers point to low solar activity and low Arctic ice volume as being major drivers of atmospheric patterns - we've got past solar grand minimums to refer to but no template on the ice. Hathawy's update refers to a solar max as low as in 1906 - we are very close to Dalton levels of 200 years ago, a period known for unpredictability and wild swings in weather type over W Europe - no models, indices etc to refer to make for a challenging time in trying to second guess what a season will bring.

These charts are from the CFS daily link on Meteociel. Use the 9 month option and pick the run/time span from options above the charts. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php

I'm reading through this thread and scratching my head regarding the comments accompanying the updated CFS charts. Please use the save facility that Meteociel provide for you - it is the little floppy disc symbol at the top right above the chart - click on it and a separate box opens with the links for use in forums etc.

Vile beasties - much more aggressive than the usual European hornets you encounter on your holidays. We saw very few ordinary wasps this year but the Asian hornets were a nuisance, constantly swooping to warn you off - must have been a nest somewhere close to the gite.

....and for October as the lag may take us closer to that month.

Here is September composite for phase 6.

Indeed, never seen so much intra-day chopping and changing on the ECM as there has been all summer - most unusual for it to have the day 7 hiccups. I wonder why this is, the synoptics are not that unusual.

There may well be a tropical storm somewhere down the line but it will be nothing to do with the EPac ex Kiko. GEM rapidly develops invest 97L after 3 days and has a vigorous system hitting Bermuda.at +126 hours.

Put me down for 13.9 please.

A +QBO and solar minimum is the state most likely not to see a SSW - during solar max, a SSW can occur in either phase of the QBO. Question is, would the current very low cycle max be construed as equivalent to a normal cycle minimum. Have a read of this paper on the subject. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS3883.1

I'm just pleased to see the Arctic can still have a cold summer; it will take many similar to reverse the trend of the last decade.

I thought the long range ECMWF was for three months at the most - how come this meteorologist is extrapolating winter 13-14 on a product that will barely touch this December?

!5.9 please.

I posted this link in the model thread in reply to a comment - this is probably the correct forum for it. Discussion of the MCC over France on the night of 26-27th. http://translate.google.fr/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/faits-marquants/2013/derecho-mcc-26-27-juillet-2013-orage-violent-rafales-gironde-charente-vienne-bordeaux-poitiers.html

Well Spotted! Google translated discussion here. http://translate.google.fr/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/faits-marquants/2013/derecho-mcc-26-27-juillet-2013-orage-violent-rafales-gironde-charente-vienne-bordeaux-poitiers.html

It looks to be on a quite similar journey to this time last year yet the weather is going to be very different.

The movement of the jet stream and shifting cycles of 'up and down' has gone on throughout history; why on earth are you suddenly applying a normal cycling to Arctic ice melt?