Gael_Force

CMA mid term offering support for the cool spell to see out November and bring in winter. Anomaly replicated for following ten day period.

Have you looked at the correlation with lower solar activity. I noticed Kevin's list of record rainfall summers had some from past minimum periods. Certainly quite a steep rise over the past few summers. Data from this site. http://www.centralen...uk/hotcold.html

The JMA have a strat monitoring section - here's their winter forecast fresh 'off the presses' today. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Lorenzo. forum.netweather.tv/topic/74637-winter-2012-2013-part-3/page__st__606

In view of thecurrent run, I had a look at Nuuk and Reykjavic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Nuuk_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Reykjavik_ens.png

I'm glad to know that I'm not the only senior to be confused by the new terminology used on here. I'm guessing that the undercutting is what will produce an easterly - it is not shown on this run - however, there are strong signals for an Arctic dipole anomaly akin to that of two years ago; whether it will produce the goods of the period remains to be seen but people should take heart that such unusual synoptics are even appearing again. Late in the run, look at that frigid airmass advance in our direction!! As I see it, the NWP is seeing change and in change all roads lead to cold - just how it evolves is yet to be determined.

These maps are GFS Eurowide but there are a few more parameters relating to snow than currently available on WZ and MC. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/eurosfc.php

Yes, the CFS is now included in the European suite. MF have regular monthly updates (Nov just issued) - a cold set for coming winter. First column is for mainland France. http://france.meteofrance.com/content/2012/10/27276-48.pdf

When I saw the graph in figure 4 of this paper I immediately thought of the changes in our weather patterns since 2007 and now reading the post by BW - is there any likelihood of a connection? http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/10/11/1207346109.full.pdf

The NMM have deepened it a bit on the noon run - nasty little feature.

The GFS has snow for the day in the NW -maybe computer generated forecast?

Lol, a bit of orange over the UK and a purple blob in the central Arctic ...we have howls about PVs and first mention of Bartletts! Look which way the Arctic wheels (PVs) are turning - the flow is much more likely to be northerly than anything from the west going by modelled placement.

6.8c for me please.

A very good blog outlining the impacts likely. http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/26/dont-panic-but-prepare-sandy-looks-like-the-real-deal/ According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0.

This must be a very chilling image for the east coast emergency planners. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/261716716185337857/photo/1

Bryan Norcross on just how unusual this storm is. Isn't it strange that a hurricane in the Bahamas would somehow turn into a monster mega-storm and slam into the Northeast at the end of October? Aren't hurricanes supposed to weaken as they move north over cold water? What the hell is going on? The answers are... yes, yes, and we're not completely sure. This is a beyond-strange situation. It's unprecedented and bizarre. Hurricanes almost always bend out to sea in October, although there have been some exceptions when storms went due north, but rarely. No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast. The strong evidence we have that a significant, maybe historic, storm is going to hit the east coast is that EVERY reliable computer forecast model now says it's going to happen. The only way we can forecast the weather four or five days days from now is with the aid of these super-complex computer programs run on supercomputers. The two best, the European and the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA, are now in reasonable agreement that there IS going to be an extraordinarily unusual confluence of events that results in a massive storm. The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved. The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast. And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor'easter. At least that's what the models are saying. And since all of the independent models are saying something similar, we have to believe them and be ready. For most people being ready means getting to the store and getting stuff before everybody else gets wise and gets the stuff first. The forecast is for an incredibly widespread and long-duration windstorm, meaning power will likely be out for an extended period of time in a lot of locations. A transistor radio is your best friend in a situation like this. Get one and enough batteries to keep it going. Your cell phone may or may not be your friend after a big storm. For people near the coast, it's critical that you pay attention to local evacuation orders and emergency information. This storm, as forecast, will create dangerous and potentially life-threatening storm surge along hundreds of miles of coastline north of where the center comes ashore. Big storms move a lot of water, and this one is about as big as they come. Right now, it looks like the storm center will land between the Delmarva and New Jersey, which would put the entire Tri-State area of NJ, NY, and Connecticut on the bad side of the storm. The Jersey Shore, Long Island, and New York City itself would be exposed to the brunt of the storm surge due to the "L" in the coastline at NYC. The angle and duration of the wind will keep the water high for an extended period of time, if this comes together as forecast. This means transportation disruptions and widespread coastal damage. If the storm comes in farther south, the Delmarva, Delaware Bay and maybe the Chesapeake will be at risk. A storm the size that's forecast would cause problems throughout New England as well, even if the center is south of New York. And then there is the threat from flooding rain and the extremely heavy snow well inland. To make all this worse along the coast, the moon is full on Monday, meaning the high tides will be higher yet. The hope we have is that the computer models are not handling this unusual situation well, and are predicting a stronger storm than we get. But, we can't bet of it. Even a weaker version will likely mean a nightmare for millions. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.html?entrynum=18

The models all seem to be in fairly good agreement now; latest GFS paints a worrying picture for such densely populated areas. http://i.imgur.com/f054w.gif

JMA output is also used by MeteoFrance in their longer range forecasting suite. For reference, their three month ensemble data. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201210.D1300.png http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201210.D1300.png http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201210.D1300.png

I think that is the problem; GFS picks out the pattern ( predominately northerlies) well before the verification time span starts then drops it at just the point where the ECM picks it up at the start of the verification period.

There must be thousands of flights providing data on an ongoing basis throughout a global 24 hour period. It may be that the 06Z is short of data from specific regions due to no night flights in certain areas and no new sonde data but I feel this is a red herring used when things do not go to plan. Big differences in the 06 qnd 12 runs yesterday - let's see if that remains the case today.

I much prefer the monthly NH anomaly outlooks from the CFS - good strong signal for a very blocked Arctic with cold displaced to lower latitudes. It too changes from run to run in placement of the cold pooling but very consistent with the idea of no central Polar vortex. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=1&carte=1&run=10 A repeat of last February on the cards? http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3367/cfsnh-8-2-2013_xom0.png

Thankfully, no caveats needed for fear of litigation........yet. If people are so sensitive, perhaps an interest with more assured outcomes would be more appropriate.

This compares years back to 1948, nothing remotely akin to the GFS NH output for late October. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=10&hour=0&map=4&mode=1

This paper seems to indicate the loss of ice in Kara/Barents region could actually increase the chances of cold winters in the mid latitudes below. This was certainly borne out by the depth of cold in recent winters; last winter was exceptional in regions to our east - this winter will be another opportunity to test the theory. http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf

It's much simpler to just mouse over the timescale that you want and then click on the wee floppy disc symbol to the top right of page - this saves your chosen chart with link provided in a new window.