Gael_Force

I was quite confident about going for something in the 17 to 18 range but now the NOAA analogues are backing away from these good years. Much more mixed in the last couple of days. Hedging, I'll go for 16.7c.

Hopefully the100s of pounds has included shaded terraces and air conditioning - the temps we enjoy abroad do not relate well to non shaded/shuttered windows and the fabric of a British home.

This is what bothers me. I was saying to Pete about not being surprised to see a hot July but I'm not sure if these great charts will even verify let alone live up to face value promise.

I see Philip Eden also has 13.8 to the 26th ..... are we sure there will be downward corrections on Hadley? I would like to be close for one month.

Not today/tonight - now that the upper low is moving up through France the steering will be good for you; doesn't guarantee something for everyone though.

That doesn't make any sense. The pattern in this paper mentioned http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n11/full/ngeo1595.html refers to the nineties, it is a very different pattern now yet we are being told it is the same driver. I've found an AMO chart, I cannot see the periods the scientists are referring to as being in any way the same as at present.

Please excuse my ignorance - is the AMOC the met office are talking about the same thing as the AMO being discussed here?

Following on from this, nice summer forecast on the updated seasonal from CMA and looking good for July on JMA. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201306.D1000_gl0.png

It might be normal in context of recent years but it's sure in hell not normal summer solstice weather in the context of my 60 odd years of UK existence.

The Met office have already pointed out the similarity of this years spring pattern to that of 1962 and made the comment that there was difficulty in attributing it to Arctic ice loss. Even in 'stuck' patterns the wavelengths don't remain fixed for ever, I would expect the positioning of troughing and ridging to move. We are drier this year because we are well north of the jet stream and mostly in north easterlies/easterlies.

Indeed - what joy, we get rid of blobby only to usher in Dec 2010 synoptics for the start of July.

No, it wouldn't surprise me. Some very warm July years featuring in recent NOAA analogs. These will be based more on a wider spectrum fit and of course are for years before the big green blob appeared as our regular summer default.

It looks like the phasing of May last year - quite different to the fast circuit in June '12. I like this 'at a glance' multi-model forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

Americanwx have updated their site, old links don't work. Try this one for monthly composites. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Apart from the fact that uncut verges are a visibility hinderance for emerging traffic, surely roadsides are the last places we should be encouraging wildlife habitat. We have a large rural garden, at least 50% is left overgrown - it doesn't look that great from a human perspective, the benefit is in enjoying the wildlife it encourages. Individuals can do much more to promote sanctuary for wildlife, even in small inner city gardens.

Wow, look at those rain rates - near one and a half inches an hour.

Only the Med on the Italian site. You could try the close up on Meteociel - it has southern part of UK on the detailed map. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/sst.php?mode=0&jour=04&mois=06&annee=2013 Global here. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/sst.php?mode=1&jour=04&mois=06&annee=2013

Don't think I've ever seen such a big June negative anomaly in the Med before.

On these occasions the air mass has been from a direct southerly flow, this time the warmth has been mixed out in the arctic and further modified over the very cold seas. Irrespective of temperature, it is fantastic to have warm sunshine instead of cold, dreich days.

Why not wait till the weekend is over before commenting on the validity of a forecast - there will be a lot of storm activity to the south (according to current output) - this may mean that the south is not as warm and cloud free as some imagine. It wouldn't take much to shift this mess north. Disappointment with the message should not cause the shooting of the messenger!

What I see is that the Jet (or an offshoot) has dug even deeper into Europe this year - not a new pattern - just an amplification of the one from the last few years. With so much high pressure around Scandinavia the likelihood is that these troughs will be stuck and just oscillate back and forth through central Europe. This looks like being a disastrous year for W. European agriculture, even if the patterns change suddenly for the better the damage has already been done to large swathes of growing areas. When you add this to the human misery and business failures it is a poor outlook for an already struggling economy.

I think we are entering a period where many accepted scientific theories may face a challenge. There are suddenly two new additions to the known climate drivers, the solar inactivity and the dramatic reduction of Arctic ice; much can be attributed to those for any changes to the expected (modelled) scenarios. It seems that science is now accepting that warming may not be global and that regional anomalies may occur within an overall warming picture.....one just has to look at the current synoptics to see this. An exciting period for climate scientists and armchair enthusiasts, as long as their ideas are not set in stone.

The NOAA upper air tools page, 500 analogues are given for a range of days - this is the eleven day link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

Are you looking at reanalysis analogues? I noticed the NOAA 500 analogues have suddenly shifted to cooler years in the 11 day range; some years with a June CET in the twelves now appearing. ie 1971, 1985 and 1991.

14.2 please