Gael_Force

That is a nasty squeeze on the isobars from the 00Z HIRLAM - the 06Z is a bit deeper apparently, not seen positioning though.

I think I would be changing my plans - there is a real risk of these winds coming down to the surface.

Well, our ancestors hung entrails on their trees - electricity allows us to replace them with twinkly lights - doesn't mean that we are any less visceral in our inner workings!

I doubt Lorenzo is involved when you look t the five day track.

Explosive!

I prefer to look at the Z500 on a NH view. Looks like a southerly track for the jet stream is forecast there.

Just saving the +147 on GFS - hopefully that will not verify for Monday rush hour - interesting to look back and see after the event (or non event).

What is evident when looking at the outer quintiles category maps is the reduction in warm probabilities as the months progress. By the time we are at JFM, the probabilities increase for well below temps to our south.

There looks to be decent gains forecast for the all important below 60N area.

There are Ozone mixing charts on the experimental FIM model, don't know if they are of any value to this thread. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet

Was that a double plus I saw - does that mean anything or just a typo? The month has many days to run, perhaps they see no more large snowfall and even some decline. I'm not surprised to be honest; there seems to be a lot of warm looking maps in the LRF posts. Having said that, I'm firmly of the belief that we are now in a phase where accepted correlations and teleconnections may be less useful and where 'expect the unexpected' may be the order of the day.

Absolutely, BFTV. Madden knows his target audience, caters to what they need/want to hear and relies on the links they post to generate site traffic. The best thing anyone can do is stop clicking on the links instead of doing so and then moaning about the content. Do not give charlatans the exposure and revenue they want.

It depends which stage the solar cycle is at; we are currently at or near solar max (albeit a very weak one) - the stage most associated with strong PV and zonal flow. We really don't know which solar factors cause the changes in flow; is it sunspot number, TSI, UV, or something else? I'm sure we will be finding out a lot more in the years to come as solar physics studies this exciting period with all the new tech tools.

JMA update today: also sees a cold signal for January. NH view http://i.imgur.com/ojuHbDb.png

Maybe they are waiting for the new monthly run - Tuesday one had some very large cold outliers beginning around bonfire night,

You don't want to know.

That graph is only up to the 13th of this month - all the actual measurements are above previous shown years. I'm assuming the green line is a projection. Since we don't know the theory or methodology, I would be wary of any conclusions drawn.

Would that not be because the base period for climate is the most recent and the warmest; 1950 - 1975 would probably not have the same negative anomalies when referenced to the appropriate base. Thanks for the great opening post - my favourite topic on here.

I spent my early childhood in a croft with no electricity supply and no running water during harsh winter periods. We coped fine as we had the burn for water, peat fires and oil lamps but mostly we coped because we knew nothing else and our expectations and needs were not developed as they are today. I very much doubt that the present day folk in modern homes will cope as well - if the Grid goes down it will be a major problem for anyone trying to heat their homes and cook food; the water supply will likely freeze and sanitation problems will be another woe. I suspect some of you will be less enthusiastic when you cannot follow conditions on the internet and send reports from the comfort of your warm home. As for the predictions - who knows. Local regional modelling is predicting a substantial drop in temperatures over the next couple of years - that will need to start soon - maybe this winter will be the one that kicks it off.

Some years ago I saw a map of magnetic fields where the comment was on changes occurring in 2007 - this was mainly in the mid to southern Atlantic. It was around this time that the jet stream began it's southerly travels with troughing extending way south to the Azores region - to me, it seemed to be too much of a coincidence.

There are a variety of snowfall maps available on IWM (some only for high-res part of the run) eg; http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2013100900&var=SNOWCPER_sfc&hour=192 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Put me down for 11c please.

I found this page while searching on the subject. http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~wx019276/teacosi/arcticpapers.html A useful collection of papers - more will be added. http://www.teacosi.org/

That is a map of the temperature anomaly over Europe for winter 09/10 - I'm not sure of the agency source or the accuracy -but it is showing wiki in the image location. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Europe_Temperature_Map_2009-12.png

I don't know if this is the same Cohen as the one who does the Siberian snow cover forecasts - this guys newest paper points to a strong link between low ice extent and severe winters. This from the early online release of the paper. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aer-scientists-uncover-link-between-declining-arctic-sea-ice-and-colder-winters-2013-09-12