Gael_Force

Did Jennifer Francis not remark that the lack of Spring snow cover was probable cause for the persistence of the recent HL blocking and related W.European trough in summer. I haven't kept the links to her paper and video from last summer but I do remember that point being mentioned.

Did you see this other article from research at Edinburgh University. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-22433359

Nice analysis BFTV. The top analogue for the GFS 12z run just happens to be 2006. A few good summers among the other years too.

I was not aware that the EC 32 or the CFS v2 forecast the MJO phases - have you a link to where this was said?

While Estofex is offline, you can still see reports of severe weather and get forecasts/reports from some of the individual countries through the ESWD site. http://essl.org/cgi-bin/eswd/eswd.cgi

The Chinese scientists who wrote this paper found a repeating pattern which they consider to be solar cycle related. http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11434-011-4713-7.pdf I assume the cooling and warming in each 600 year segment is caused by the shorter solar cycles overlaid by atmosphere and ocean cycles.

You are right in that the studies are not conclusive - however, the body of evidence is sufficient to at least apply temporary restrictions to see if it makes any difference. http://www.epa.gov/pesticides/about/intheworks/ccd-european-ban.html

Better news for the bees. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22335520

11.6c please.

There have been a few threads on this subject and they all cause controversy because of the mention of 'ice age' in the title - I suppose we should blame the scientific community for having applied the term LIA to the period in the middle of the last millennium. I propose the subject would be best addressed as 'regional cooling due to changing atmospheric circulations in the NH'

I agree. A quote from the Burns' poem 'To a Louse' always enters my head when I visit there. O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie usTo see oursels as ithers see us!It wad frae mony a blunder free us

The MACC project has fairly extensive air quality monitoring and modelling on its website. http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/about/product_portfolio/ eg Nitrogen oxides mentioned in the above article.

A fairly recent paper here. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000775 This shows a potential long term correlation between solar cycles and atmospheric circulation over Siberia.

Webcam for Popocatepetl. http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-popocatepetl.html

FAO John Holmes. - not able to receive pms apparently? I note you mention interest in the accuracy/verification of the ECM mid range forecasts. Just wonder if you have seen my post with a link to the hindcast analysis that the ECM provide on their site. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/mofc/verification/anomaly/

One of the forecast agencies has a transition to phase 7 by months end - maybe this is where PJ's thoughts originate? http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/fcsts/pd.MW05.Last.gif Composite picture for May, not out of sync with what GFS showing for 15 days time. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MayPhase7500mb.gif

The Gulf stream, whether it is idle or turbo-charged, will have little impact on the UK weather if prevailing winds change to a northerly/easterly direction as has happened in recent weeks. All looks fairly normal as far as speed is concerned. http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/html/produits/psy3v3/ocean/regions/bull_ocean_nat_fr.jsp?nom=psy3v3_20130403_23103

1785 followed exceptional volcanic activity in both Iceland and the Med. If we are getting anywhere close to these figures - exceptional indeed!! Climate impacts of Laki. http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/education/gases/laki.html

Seeing I was 3 degrees too high in my March figure, let's try 6c again for April.

As far as global temperatures remaining high, I thought this article highlights the scenario well - any anomalous cold is cancelled out by anomalous warmth in another part of the globe. The impacts of melting Arctic ice are looked at and the modelling is a fair reflection of what we see in actuality for this month. http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scilogs.de%2Fwblogs%2Fblog%2Fklimalounge%2Fklimadaten%2F2013-03-28%2Feisschmelze-und-kaltes-wetter&act=url Two things spring to mind in viewing the predicted/observed anomalies. Firstly the cold mid latitudes are where the population centres are situated and also where we grow our 'bread baskets' - huge economic and environmental impacts if this were to persist even for a limited time span. The second aspect is the change in temperature profile that is likely on the fringes of western Europe. We are used to a benign climate from a westerly source, protected from harsh winters, with airflow being modified by a warm sea to our west. If the new winter pattern is likely to be predominately from points north through east, it is not hard to see why our small corner of the Globe would see some of the biggest negative anomalies.

One of the features of recent summers has been the cool days (some well below seasonal norm) whereas the nights have been above average. The net effect is a nearly normal CET return but as most people conduct their activities during the daytime their perception is one of a cool summer in general - the persistent cloud cover, wind and increased precipitation adding to the gloom. A common moan is you cannot sit outside in the evening because it is too cool even with the sun - we don't expect to do that in Scotland but I was pretty shocked to find we needed fleeces for dining out while on summer holiday near the Med!

Do you remember the film of the '47 winter that we were all slavering over? How it would be great to see that again and of course the naysayers - we could never see the like again. Didn't have to wait long!! Communties have forgotten that such things can happen - villages with no shop, homes with no alternative source of heat if the power lines are down. Events such as this remove the "what if" from the equation and may serve to remind people that we never really know what lies ahead.

Have a look at this paper -it discusses some of the points you raise and also shows the likely pressure patterns which led to the LMM cooling across Europe. I dislike the use of LIA (although it appears in scientific texts) - allows too much confusion about what the period represented. http://www.ub.edu/gc/Documentos/Luterbacher,%20IJC,%202000.pdf

That is exactly as it was in the period known as the LIA - unpredictability was one of the main problems facing the farmers in the affected regions. It's a mistake to imagine it was uninterrupted cold; drought was interchangeable with deluge, just depended on situation of trough and ridge.

Good post! Succinctly sums up where we are and where we might be going. I do remember reading, many years ago, the likelihood of a more permanent Nina phase occurring in tandem with the reduction in visible sunspots that the author envisaged for the beginning of the new millenium. I do wonder if the Arctic ice loss is also tied in with the changes in the sun's output - the incursions of warmth in the Arctic are due to the increasingly amplified jet which in turn is recognised as a feature of past grand minimums.