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Gael_Force

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Everything posted by Gael_Force

  1. Gael_Force
    The Instant weather maps conveniently show the max and min - in this case it is -11.1 http://i.imgur.com/cIUDn.gif
  2. Gael_Force
    There must be a broadly similar pattern now for that month to be second top analog.
  3. Gael_Force
    I don't think this was the case; he said the MOGREPS were showing southerly/S.westerly solutions but that MO favoured the ECM suite. Not sure if MOGREPS swung round to cold easterly later - did not see comment to that effect.
  4. Gael_Force
    From what I have seen recently, it's not the number of posts or duration of membership that dictates the quality of post. When people are frustrated that their desired weather type is being suddenly snatched from their grasp emotions and tempers run high. Neither are likes a good indication - there are as many likes awarded for a flippant one liner as there are for a long and detailed technical post! The format has sufficient avenues to cover all needs, it just requires people to exercise self control. If they cannot do that regarding something as volatile and unpredictable as the atmosphere then they should find a hobby where they can have more control of the eventual outcome.
  5. Gael_Force
    I posted the old paper mentioned below - definition from that source:- http://www.dtic.mil/.../u2/a227731.pdf Another one from Karin Labitzke. http://www.atmosp.ph...5_Labitzke.html I'll just add this recent paper as the forecast GP has posted looks very akin to the illustrations. https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:eNxekOZyNaoJ:www-mete.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/Kyoto2012/ppts/oral/Feb22/S01_Bancala.pdf+Labitzke,+1977%29.&hl=en&gl=uk&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjme56mDysC6MTDfyI7355TsOMFceBBHqho9LnnJcLWD_y3tlJV014ByrZgtYID5KmVCDOo_PxuVHEiaRTESGBn8GJs-0YCCEq9KKMpM2_rosPyRWgAMGQd3g8S8A2hoRgreaOo&sig=AHIEtbQfJtzaqENMkb8CWpXp6i56Ezau0w
  6. Gael_Force
    A beautiful poster style image from yesterday highlighting the classic nautilus structure.
  7. Gael_Force
    The numbers of UK greenfinches have almost halved in recent years due to this nasty disease. http://www.birdwatch.co.uk/channel/newsitem.asp?c=11&cate=__12554
  8. Gael_Force
    The very fact that we are seeing charts like those of the epic winters of the past should be something of interest and curiosity - that some on the board need to qustion if these have been seen before gives hope that this winter may indeed produce something special.
  9. Gael_Force
    ....and more recently, christmas '78.
  10. Gael_Force
    Oops! just realised I had transposed my figures and of course cannot edit. Corrected figure is 3.5c
  11. Gael_Force
    5.3c for me, please.
  12. Gael_Force
    http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Shindell_etal_1.pdf When this paper was compiled, the scientists had no idea that we would be looking at such an inactive sun in just a few short years.My question, on reading the details of the modelling of the processes in the troposphere and stratosphere - are we seeing evidence of what the models indicated in the current unusual patterns of disconnect between the atmospheric levels?
  13. Gael_Force
    Why not just use the model compare option that Meteociel already provide? http://www.meteociel...npara=0&carte=1 Activer live compare above the map
  14. Gael_Force
    I wouldn't worry about it - seen it all before - just as GFS comes onboard with the desired outcome, the ECMWF throws a wobbly and cause panic. I take it you remember much the same played out in Nov/Dec '10 when it was proved the Euro WASN'T infallible.
  15. Gael_Force
    You can get snow charts on Instant weather maps with no cost involved - I am an idioti is just touting for customers to his pay to view site. PS how on earth did JB's name translate to that???? http://www.instantwe...r=SNOD&hour=192
  16. Gael_Force
    Lol, yes! you are all going too fast for this old codger.
  17. Gael_Force
    Is this not the ensemble mean for the ECM run.? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Northern%20Hemisphere!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012112212!!/
  18. Gael_Force
    The ECM site has a map of global data coverage today. http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/data_coverage!synop-ship!12!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/ It seems to be very sparse in the region where the weekend storm is developing - might be the reason why modelling from that region appears to be tricky?
  19. Gael_Force
    Here you go. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=21&mois=11&annee=2010&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=0
  20. Gael_Force
    You'll get the dewponts for a range of places in Holland on the WeerPlaza ensembles - still not indicative as there is no sea track to be taken into consideration in these locations. http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim
  21. Gael_Force
    Winter 62/63 and 78/79 began with a Canadian warming (anybody got data for 46/47) In my root around for information I found this old thesis - nice clear explanation of the processes involved for someone, like me, new to the subject. http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a227731.pdf
  22. Gael_Force
    I think the new Met office long range model has the capability to model very high in the atmosphere. Don't know how often it is run though. GloSea4 uses a computer model which simulates winds, humidity and temperatures on an approximately 150km-spaced grid of points at a range of vertical heights from the surface to beyond the stratosphere which is why it is able to represent SSWs more realistically. http://www.iop.org/news/12/sep/page_57337.html
  23. Gael_Force
    Another one here from Russian scientists - graphs at the bottom show a similar scenario. http://nextgrandminimum.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/abduss_apr.pdf I wonder if it is all linked in some way that we don't as yet understand - do we know what the ice levels were like in the Maunder for example? The research that I've read seems to point to a very meridional pattern with wild swings and long blocking periods leading to very unpredictable agricultural conditions.
  24. Gael_Force
    Hmm, the 06z must have been in the kitchen when the coffee was being brewed!
  25. Gael_Force
    Nick Sussex said. "Unfortunately if you look at the current verifications stats the GFS 06hrs run in the NH is doing better than the rest of its output. Even the GFS 18hrs is doing second best. Thats not to say that will remain the case but although I'm happy to trash any of the lower resolution GFS output we can't just ignore this run in the higher resolution because we don't like it." http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ For a part of that timescale ALL the NWS agencies were putting up balloons for all four runs of the GFS - this was to aid with the forecasting of Sandy. It may have skewed the stats for this time period.
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