Gael_Force

Reasonable placement of heights and picked up on the deep digging trough into SW Europe.

It's probably just coincidence but the NH 500mb forecast has a striking similarity with the charts from Nov 2002 when the SH also had a very strong SSW. Would there be a means to have the SH event influence the NH. The JMA image is upside down in view

What is shown in those charts is nothing out of the ordinary for mid November. A 170 years of data shows this date has little bearing on following winter weather. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=11&hour=0&map=4&mode=1&type=ncep&region=

Previous cycle graphs available on this site.... SWS - The Sun and Solar Activity - Graphs of Historical Solar Cycles WWW.SWS.BOM.GOV.AU upslope to a strong max by 1990. If we are at or near minimum, geomagnetic activity is stronger than same stage of last cycle. http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html

Even if it does change later in autumn, it's another example of the new season replicating the pattern that closed out the previous season. This seems more apparent where the vortex has been particularly blown apart by SSW or very strong final warming. Look at the charts for early May; almost identical when you allow for difference between winter/summer arctic temperature.

Somebody has done some research on this but I don't know if the scientist is reputable?? http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2010ScienceMeeting/posters/Poster Presentations/Poster_Scafetta_Climate_Oscillations.pdf

You just never know... there's going to be a lot of those beasts cantering over the snowy (sunny) uplands this winter. Good job on the weather analysis too.

The current weather and what is modelled is a perfect facsimile for the well below summer NAO diagram.

The French model has central pressure of 979mb...usually considered good for those type of lows arriving from SW. At least, this time plenty of advance warning to wisely cancel events.

Considering the UKMO used the tripole (or otherwise) signature from May SST anomalies as one of their guides to following winter NAO, does it matter if it vanishes? A few autumn storms will mix out current SST pattern which has only been brought about by persistent heights over NE Canada and Greenland.

Maybe the loss of ice is adding to the effect ?? As for studies, all the links I read were on here, in the original thread. Has it gone along with so much else that was purged because of bickering. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298052/document Look at the chart for August 1771 .... something similar to what is modelled for following days.

If you've read any of the studies in Maunder conditions, it should not be unexpected. The monastic winemakers' accounts of the period describe early, unseasonal warmth, followed by late spring chills. Summers saw big swings from extreme heat to cold air spells: the outcome of which was the dreaded enemy of viticulturists .... frequent large and damaging hail.

Remember it well: was sent to report on the rescues. If I'm allowed to stray for a moment, a bit of archive coverage. https://www.yachtingworld.com/features/fastnet-race-1979-storm-122408

A couple of tweets @knocker has posted over in model tweet thread. Also another previous seasonal signature Nino Modoki currently but if you read in entirety, with such novel extremes, it would be a mugs game trying to second guess any season now.

Strong ocean temperature signatures at present. Very warm PDO , almost perfect Atlantic tripole and La Nina signal in east Pacific. What's your thoughts for later in the year @Singularity

With the depth of ridges, looks more like Asperatus.

Very high cloud tops for UK storms.

It's supposed to be correlated to geomagnetic activity rather than raw sunspot data. Can be periods of strong solar burst even at minimum. Ant Massiello has been covering some of this over recent years. You were seeing some interesting signature in Atlantic SSTs ? ... Europe multi-model ensemble has a nice tripole in place by December.

Like with rainfall, the lower resolution sees more cloud coverage than likely. Its much higher res stablemate shows a much more patchy coverage and plenty of breaks for the sun to do its work.

This wee snippet from the French Met office shows how exceptional the heat of tomorrow is. Red warnings a few miles away from you! http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/Bulletin.html?a=dept62&b=

if the original notated skewT had shown up the acronyms had been written out by Q. all moot for me, cannot read those diagrams and I suspect many others cannot either.

There may be a bit of volcanic ash to aid the next winter. Sarychev was thought to have had a bearing on extreme -NAO of 09/10; Raikoke (same island chain) may have injected enough ash to have a stratospheric effect. “Radiosonde data from the region indicate a tropopause altitude of about 11 kilometers, so altitudes of 13 to 17 kilometers suggest that the eruption cloud is mostly in the stratosphere,” said Carn. “The persistence of large SO2 amounts over the last two days also indicates stratospheric injection.” https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145226/raikoke-erupts Sorry bit off the main topic but a reminder that many aspects go into a winter ..... great pics of both from the ISS.

I didn't see the charts you posted last night but the free sources of EC monthly data I have seen don't show anything overly excessive for rainfall.

Where did you see that? The ECM 46 anomaly maps don't show anything too drastic from what I see. https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

On 28th June France officially recorded 46c in the data analysis. http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/74345599-c-est-officiel-on-a-atteint-les-46-c-en-france-en-juin Will it be long till we see that beaten?