Sainsbo
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Posts posted by Sainsbo
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It's nice to be in the firing line for once!
Fingers crossed that tomorrow doesn't disappoint,
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I know it's probably a good idea to completely ignore any of the precipitation charts, but the 0z NMM has a small area accumulating a total of 150-200mm by the end of this, with a wider area receiving up to 100-150mm, most of which falling in less than 6 hours.
Regardless where the storms may actually occur, whcih we probably won't know until we start nowcasting, the conditions are clearly there for someone to get it bad. Temperatures look like they will get widely into the mid 20's now, rather than just the SE forecast a couple of days ago
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Definitely looks interesting! However I think I'll try to keep excitement to a minimum until Thursday, we've been in this boat many times before.
Fingers crossed the models are right this time,
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Thank you all for the answers and info!
Mike - It was during a Spanish plume last year
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Took some pics in July last year, and I'm still not sure what type of clouds these are. I'm not really sure if the storm was a supercell, but theres a good chance that it was (Looked like it had a definitive hook on the radar, some serious rotation, lasted for a long time, and had decent sized hail). I thought they might be cumulonimbus, but I've never seem cumulonimbus clouds that look like this before, and they don't really look like mammatus clouds, but I'm not sure what else they could be.
Here's a link to the pictures in the post I did last year, any help would be greatly appreciated. It's still bugging me
Thanks!
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Dolphin's still blowing up now.
Eye temperature is up to 15C, and cloud tops are still at -75C. The system looks like it's becoming much more symmetrical too, and with raw T numbers of T7.0, I don't see anything to suggest Dolphin won't be a Category 5 on the next advisory. They are still expecting a peak of 145kts, but only time will tell.
It looks even more formidable when you see the size of it
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A lot of the models are showing that Dolphin may become a monster in size and intensity in a couple of days.(Almost all of the models going sub-900mb, some down to ~880mb, though we know how unreliable these can be) Definitely one to watch.
JTWC forecasting 115kts about 4 days from now. Woudn't be surprised if it's much higher than that. Conditions look near perfect when the shear eases away.
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Latest JTWC advisory put sustained winds at 140kts (160mph), and forecasting a peak of 155kts (180mph)!
Maysak is only the third Super Typhoon ever recorded in March (Quoted from CNN, so it might be wrong,
), but a 180mph super typhoon this early in the year would be quite a shock.-
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Looks like a bit more than 145kts to me. (Many people commenting on Twitter that CIMSS is showing T7.5 ~175-180mph) I really hope people have taken the necessary precautions, it looks like it's going to be rough.
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12z GFS for Pam..
While I don't ever trust the models when it comes to the intensity of Tropical Systems, if this were to verify, it would beat the record that Super TyphoonTip set over 30 years ago.
Luckily dry air incursion has kept intensification slower than expected so far, but that may not last much longer.
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Definitely one to watch. The models are still forecasting some rediculously low minimum pressure readings from Pam. (874mb on the GFS 6z,
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The significant difference about this low in comparison to the LPS's we normally see seems to be that the potentially damaging gusts are much further inland than we are usually used to seeing. It might not seem like anything too significant (but still dangerous!) for the people near the coast, but I think it may be a bit of a shock for the people further inland. The MetO are forecasting gusts of 60mph here, I can't remember many occasions where we saw gust speeds that high this far inland.
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Other than the slight shift northwards on some of the models there hasn't been much of a downgrade overnight. 0z GFS(P) still showing a huge swathe of >93mph gusts over N Scotland, and the GFS and NMM still showing widespread gusts of 80mph with gusts of 100mph+ for NW Scotland. Next few runs will be crucial, it will be interesting to see if they continue with the northward trend. It still looks very dangerous.
Either way, I bet kite sales are up today. (Stay safe everyone!)
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I can't remember seeing such a large area of off the chart windspeeds (at least in the reliable timeframe). The entire black area is >93mph, there could be some serious damage.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a red warning issued for parts of Scotland sometime in the day tomorrow, providing we don't see dowgrades.
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Not too often you see the MetO forecasting 98mph gusts, even for the north of Scotland. The area where gusts are expected to exceed 90mph is quite large, and 80mph+ gusts look likely to be widespread. Wouldn't like to be on the Cairngorms on Friday night.
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Not too often you see an area quite this large of "off the chart" gust speeds, even if it is on the GFS and still almost 5 days away..
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Hmm that's definitely now mph even though the map says it is lol, is that 143mph at Portland? It was pretty windy here, but nothing too unusual with it being windier many times last winter and at least once this Autumn. Certainly not 80-90mph inland gusts so must be km/h I'd guess.
Here's the corrected one they posted. Not much of a difference,
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With all of the talk of snow it seems the wind aspect of this system was forgotten about. Gusts of over 110mph have been recorded on the south coast, with 80-90mph gusts reported inland, according to the map posted on Twitter, courtesy of Meteogroup.
And not even a yellow warning out for the wind from the MetO!
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Definitely one to watch, most of the models do seem to be showing a low "bombing" out as it crosses/comes near to the UK, but there doesn't seem to be much agreement on when that happens, or how much it deepens (Which is to be expected when we're still 6 days away from this potential storm).
I wouldn't get too worried just yet, plenty can change in 6 days. At least it makes for interesting model watching in the run up to christmas
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JTWC currently estimating the sustained windspeeds to be 155kts (180mph), with further strengthening to 170kts (195mph) likely, which would match the intensity of Haiyan.
Terrible news for the people of the Philippines, hopefully it will recurve back out to sea.
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ADT giving raw T values of 7.5+ now. It looks like the JTWC might be being slightly conservative with their outlook. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=20W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
Still looking fantastic on satellite too.
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Gonna be a strong one. Nice and symmetrical with very cold cloud tops. And best of all, no threat to land. JTWC predict a peak of 140kts (160mph), but I don't see much stopping it going stronger.
).
Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Light drizzle and low cloud for hours here. Hopefully the sun can find it's way out to heat things up at some point today
Still feels very muggy, temperature's around 22C