Sainsbo
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Posts posted by Sainsbo
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ERC seems to have finished and it looks to be intensifying again. The eye has cleared and the system has a much better satellite presentation now that shear has decreased. SST's are still quite toasty so I don't see much stopping it from regaining it's Cat. 4 status for a while.
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Vongfong has now weakened with winds of 80 knots (1-min) / 90 knots (10-min)
Perfect example of the disparity between the JTWC and the JMA. According to the JTWC, Vongfong is now a Cat.1 (1 min sustained 80kts), whereas the JMA still have sustained 10 min winds of 90kts, which would quite comfortably support sustained 1 minute winds equivelent to Cat. 3 status.
Good example of why we need Recons back in the WPAC!
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Sustained winds up to 70mph now, and no longer subtropical. I'm starting to wonder if it might make hurricane status before getting absorbed into a cold front. While vertical shear is still high, SST's are quite warm so we might get lucky and see a weak Category 1 from Fay.
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It definitely wouldn't be pretty!
Luckily that shouldn't be the case like it was this time last year with Haiyan.
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Luckily it isn't expected to hit land for a few days, hopefully as a much weaker storm (though still dangerous).
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Fantastic pics.
Latest JTWC is crazy. Sustained winds currently at 180mph (155kts), gusting to 220mph, and forecast to reach speeds of 190mph (165kts), gusting to 230mph by tomorrow!
Unbelievable!
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135kts (155mph) according to JTWC's latest update, just shy of a Cat. 5, though looking at satellite images it's hard to believe they didn't put it as such on their last advisory.
JTWC still expect it to strengthen slightly, and make it to category 5 status with sustained winds of 140kts (160mph). No reason that shouldn't happen, as shear is still quite low, SST's are still very warm and it has excellent outflow. It also looks very symmetrical, so eyewall replacement cycles may not be a problem.
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Looks good enough to be a Super Typhoon to me.
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Quite an impressive burst of rapid intensification over night. Eye has propely formed and it almost clear, and the cloud tops are still cooling A solid CDO around the eye, and still time for further intensification. Last update from JTWC had windspeeds at 100kts (115mph), but I'd say it's probably closer to 120kts (140mph) by now.
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Definitely one to watch in my opinion, cloud tops are already touching -80C. Eye looks like it's starting to emerge.
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Interesting that the number of smaller quakes definitely seems to be dropping and the energy released in one big one (like the 5.5 mentioned by Sainsbo) is equivalent to over 3,000 in the M2 range
A Magnitude 5.5 releases ~175,000 times as much energy as a Mag 2.0. Really puts into perspective how much more stress the big quakes are putting on the caldera than the small ones!
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Magnitude 5.5 not too long ago, that should shake things up a bit!
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Some places in Wiltshire recieved 60mm+ of rain overnight, according to the BBC. Only about 10-15mm here, but atleast there were a few nice light shows.
Still a fair bit of MUCAPE around for later on today:
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Certainly looks like a lot of potential over the next few days for some more organised thunderstorms.
We've already had a pretty good year regading the amount of storms we've had, and that might be able to get better still.
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NHC have sustained winds at 110mph now, just shy of major hurricane status.
While the eye is quite large and ragged, it is clear in the center and looks to still be warming.
Not wanting to speak too soon, but it's about time we had a Cat. 3 in the North Atlantic!
No real consensus regarding the models on if it will make it though. NHC seem to think it will, I see no reason why it shouldn't.
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Definitely a more muggy feel to the weather here tonight. Still close to 16C outside.
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Sorry if this vid has already been posted, but I thought it was great to watch.
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The eruption looks beuatiful on the livestream now that it's dark.
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Aviation colour code lowered to orange again.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/
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M4.8 not too long ago. For the past few days all of the larger earthquakes have been confined to a different area than where the majority of the earthquakes have been. This one on the other hand is with the rest of them, and looks like the biggest one we've seen in that area (atleast for a few days)
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It's a beauty to look at.
Model intensity guidance looks interesting. Although an outlier, one of them expects a peak at aroung 165kts! (190mph). About 40% of them take it to Cat. 5 territory.
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I was questioning the same here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81167-wales-the-midlands-south-west-england-weather-discussion/?p=3028219The NMM 18km, 14km, 6km and 4km charts all show discrepancies. The GFS is the only one with higher totals. The MO back their Euro4 model.I'm wondering if the GFS is going for more of a convective element, bumping totals up? Primarily Dorset, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent for me..
Even the Euro4 shows 50mm in places, albeit less widespread. It could be convection giving some larger ppn totals in places, I guess we'll have to wait for the 12z and see if there is a better consensus between them.
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Looks like there might be a few problems around tomorrow if the NMM and GFS are correct. 40-50mm quite widely, the most rain we've had in a day here since the floods in July 07 was 39mm in April 2012.
Quite surprised that the MetO warning page only says 15mm with up to 30mm in some places, but we shall see.
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nilofar
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
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Nilofar has rapidly intensified, and looks a lot stronger on Satellite than the JTWC's predictions. Next update will be interesting, could easily see it being cat 4+