Sainsbo
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Posts posted by Sainsbo
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29.3C at Heathrow at 2PM, 30C looking almost certain to be reached. Wonder if anywhere will get to 31 or 32C?
27.3C here
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26.1C at the official station in Lyneham at 1PM. It will be interesting to see by how much the forecast temperature of 26C will be exceeded
Edit: 29.1C at Heathrow now
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23.7C here, feeling warmer than that in the sun
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Already the warmest day of the year in Wales and it's not even midday.
24.8C in Rhyll at 11AM.
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Just to add to the other tweet above
@bbcweather
Update: Chance of 35C tomorrow in the London area has now increased. Considered a 60% probability. John H
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The 10am forecast on News 24 was pushing for the chance of 35C in the SE tomorrow, depending on how clear the sky is (and 40C around the Paris area!)
Indeed, I was quite surprised to see a 35C on the map.
He also used the words 35C or so - Maybe a little hotter than that if there is little cloud cover?
Maybe the July record isn't as safe as we thought!
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I know CAPE and Lifting Index aren't the only factors, but seeing charts like this less than 48 hours away definitely makes me excited!
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NMM 18z showing 34C for London on Wednesday!
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With charts like these, I'm tempted to think somewhere in the top 50.
There again, I'm not quite sure if the chart is 2m temperatures or surface temperatures. If they're 2m temperatures then I think it might suggest something a little more notable than some people think!
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Here's a list from TORRO on the top 100 hottest days ever recorded in the UK. Unfortunately, it only shows the highest temp recorded in a day, and ignores the 2nd, 3rd, ect which may still be higher than others on the list.
(Apologies, it's not very easy on the eye. I can't get the formatting right to get it in a table)
It'll be interesting to see where Wednesday lands on this list1st 38.5 10/08/2003
2nd 37.1 03/08/1990
3rd 36.7 09/08/1911
4th 36.6 02/08/1990
5th 36.5 19/08/2006
6th 36.4 05/08/2003
7th 36.1 06/08/2003
8th 36.1 19/08/1932
9th 36 22/08/1911
10th 35.9 03/07/1976
11th 35.7 02/07/1976
12th 35.6 28/06/1976
13th 35.6 29/06/1957
14th 35.6 13/07/1923
15th 35.6 13/08/1911
16th 35.6 02/09/1906
17th 35.5 27/06/1976
18th 35.4 26/06/1976
19th 35.2 01/08/1995
20th 35.2 02/08/1990
21st 35.2 04/08/1990
22nd 35.1 20/08/1900
23rd 35 29/06/1957
24th 35 12/07/1923
25th 35 15/07/1881
26th 35 28/08/1948
27th 35 14/08/1876
28th 35 18/08/1932
29th 35 01/09/1906
30th 34.9 31/08/1906
31st 34.8 01/07/1961
32nd 34.8 05/08/2003
33rd 34.8 02/09/1906
34th 34.7 11/08/2003
35th 34.7 18/08/1893
36th 34.6 08/09/1911
37th 34.4 03/06/1947
38th 34.4 05/07/1959
39th 34.4 11/07/1921
40th 34.4 16/08/1881
41st 34.4 27/08/1933
42nd 34.4 29/08/1948
43rd 34.4 29/08/1930
44th 34.3 22/06/1941
45th 34.3 06/07/1976
46th 34.3 22/08/1989
47th 34.2 08/08/1975
48th 34.2 03/09/1906
49th 34.1 04/07/1976
50th 34.1 08/07/1941
51st 34.1 16/08/1900
52nd 34.1 11/08/1884
53rd 34 21/08/1911
54th 34 07/08/1975
55th 33.9 17/06/1917
56th 33.9 22/06/1941
57th 33.9 01/07/1961
58th 33.9 10/07/1921
59th 33.9 08/01/1900
60th 33.9 31/08/1943
61st 33.9 12/08/1911
62nd 33.9 13/08/1911
63rd 33.9 16/08/1947
64th 33.9 17/08/1947
65th 33.9 22/08/1918
66th 33.9 27/08/1942
67th 33.9 28/08/1930
68th 33.8 30/06/1957
69th 33.7 12/08/1953
70th 33.6 15/08/1876
71st 33.6 22/08/1995
72nd 33.5 25/06/1976
73rd 33.4 23/08/1989
74th 33.4 07/09/1898
75th 33.3 02/06/1947
76th 33.3 06/06/1950
77th 33.3 07/07/1893
78th 33.3 07/07/2023
79th 33.3 18/08/2006
80th 33.3 19/08/1901
81st 33.3 26/08/1885
82nd 33.3 30/08/1948
83rd 33.3 29/08/1930
84th 33.3 07/09/1911
85th 33.1 07/06/1996
86th 33 21/08/1995
87th 32.8 09/06/1940
88th 32.8 19/06/2005
89th 32.8 07/07/1923
90th 32.8 26/08/1964
91st 32.8 05/09/1949
92nd 32.7 07/07/1976
93rd 32.7 17/08/2006
94th 32.6 24/01/1900
95th 32.5 25/08/1976
96th 32.4 24/06/1976
97th 32.3 14/07/1983
98th 32.3 20/08/1995
99th 32.3 04/09/1940
100th 32.2 08/06/1915
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It's based on the ECM
Ah, okay. Thanks!
It looks like there is a fair amount of uncertainty on the max temperatures for Wednesday then. There again, if the GFS usually undercooks them, fingers crossed that we will see something more in line with what the ECM is showing!
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Not sure what charts MetDesk use, but they posted this on their Twitter two hours ago.
Quite a large area of purple (>32C)
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I'm not quite sure Tuesday will be as hot as the BBC are anticipating - NMM and GFS showing max of 26/27C in London/SE and have been for a while, yet the BBC think 29/30C is possible.
If they think it will be 2/3C hotter on Tuesday than the models suggest, I wonder what that means for Wednesday?
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NMM 6z is pretty mouth watering for storm lovers
Li of -11 and over 3000JKG^1 CAPE in places, let's hope that it doesn't get downgraded this time,
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Ian F tweeted a few hours ago that Gloucestershire could see the highest temperatures for our region on Wednesday, around 30-32C. If it's that hot in out neck of the woods, maybe 34C+ isn't out of the question for some lucky areas in other parts of the UK
17C and cloudy here too, much more rain than was anticipated this morning.
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GFS 12z definitely likes the idea of a reload!
06z
12z
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Apologies mods if threads like this are prohibited, but I thought it would be a bit of fun if people predicted when/where they think that the maximum day/night temperature will occur next week in the UK, and just how hot that temperature will be.
For maximum, I'm placing my bet on Kent, next Wednesday, 33.8C
For minimum, I'm placing my bet on Norfolk, next Wednesday into Thursday, 23.2C
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Something simple that you can do is keep curtains/blinds drawn and windows closed in the day, and then open the windows at night time. It seems instinctive to open all of the windows when it's boiling hot, but when the outside temperature is in the mid-high twenties or higher, all you are doing by opening the windows is letting warmer air in.
It might not seem like it would make much difference, but turning off electrical appliances that aren't necessary will also help. TV's playing in the background, lights on in the evenings, and laptops on standby will all make the room feel hotter than it needs to!
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BBC are now forecasting 33C in London and Heathrow on Wednesday, and like SS said it looks like the temperatures for Monday are also crawling up too, now forecasting 25C.
I've always wondered what would constitute a Level 4 heat warning from the MetO. They state that Level 3 is when it is 90% certain that threshold values will be reached for 2 consecutive days/nights, but don't give any values for Level 4, they just say if it the heatwave is severe/prolonged enough.
I'm not saying that 33-34C is enough to warrant it, but just saying "severe/prolonged" is a little subjective.
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Not getting at you Sainsbo, you're just saying what you see which is fair enough, but surely these NAVGEM temperature charts belong in the bin. 38C at 8pm at the beginning of a heatwave? Come on!!
I don't think that the chart should be taken with the slightest bit of seriousness either, It's just that I've never seen any of the models being so agressive with their temperature forecasts, and thought it was worth a post. If it ends up being correct I will be very surprised lol
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No messing around from the NAVGEM this morning. While it is one of the most extreme outputs, it would definitely see the record under threat.
And that chart if for 8PM in the evening..
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Prison cells, AJ? Just preparing for the usual Friday night entertainment I suspect. Back on topic, ahem. I'm wondering if I dare go chasing again with my brother tonight, albeit locally. Questions, questions.
I think we need some more of them in Swindon
Definitely looking darker to the SouthEast now, that cell looks like it's still growing too
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It's quite easy to blame the BBC and MetO when you forget they have to rely on predictions from supercomputers in the first place.
The atmosphere is a very chaotic environment, of course they aren't going to be right every time. It's the possibility that one day I might not be disappointed with the forecast and actually get a good storm that keeps me interested in the first place
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Wunderground have Swindon down for 54mm of rain overnight. If I'm not mistaken, that would be the most that's fallen since the floods of July 19th 2007. I know it's silly to assume that the forecast is a given, especially considering how much it has been changing recently, but it looks like somewhere in our neck of the woods might need to buy a canoe
Summer 2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Sainsbo
You're probably right, the next update in a few minutes may tell
Edit: Kew Gardens apparently now at 29.8C