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Sainsbo

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Sainsbo

  1. Sainsbo
    Iceland Met have lowered the risk level from red back down to orange. Seems strange to me considering that the earthquakes seem to be getting larger. It doesn't mean it's not still a threat, just that no eruption is expected imminently. http://news.sky.com/story/1323940/iceland-bardarbunga-risk-level-lowered
  2. Sainsbo
    All of the larger quakes (~M3.5+) seem to be occuring in a different area to the rest.. Does anyone know why this may be the case?
  3. Sainsbo
    "Presently there are no signs of ongoing volcanic activity. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano remains red as an imminent eruption can not be excluded." Looks like this may have just been a precursor. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes#view=map
  4. Sainsbo
    I think it depends on the size of the eruption. No oen can really say how big the eruption will be if it erupts further at all. The Eafkjnlinsadjkl (something like that) eruption in 2010 was only a VEI 4 eruption - which is pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things. It just caused a lot of trouble because the jet stream was blowing the ash cloud across a lot of the UK, grounding planes. More research has been done into how ash effects airplane engines since then, and it has been concluded that it is safe to fly through some ash, but there's a limit. It also depends on the density of the ash, so if the eruption was the same size as the 2010 eruption, even if the jet stream was directing the ash cloud over us, there would be much less air travel disruption because at the time it was considered unsafe to fly through any ash, regardless of how small the amount was. There's a possibility it could be bigger than the 2010 eruption. A lot bigger. In 1477 this volcano produced a VEI 6 eruption (similar in size to Laki and Krakatoa). VEI 6 eruptions are 100 times larger than VEI 4 eruptions (the scale is Logarithmic, every number increase the size of the eruption increases by a factor of 10). That would obviously cause more problems.. Laki is thought to have lowered average temperatures acoss most of Europe. Reed Timmer posted on Facebook that there is a 3% chance of this eruption being a historic event comparable to Laki, though I'm not sure where he got that figure from. So while there is the chance it will be bad, to make out it's likely would just be scaremongering. Here's the link to Reed's Facebook post. https://www.facebook.com/ReedTimmerTVN/posts/10152654916414169
  5. Sainsbo
    Now a M3.1 recorded aswell. I wonder if the earthquakes will subside now the eruption is believed to have started.
  6. Sainsbo
    Looks like there are quite a few more M2+ quakes compared to this time yesterday. Not sure if that means anything significant or if fluctuation like this is expected. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes#view=table
  7. Sainsbo
    I thought this article was a good read. http://www.decodedscience.com/activity-bardarbunga-another-icelandic-volcano-erupt/48727
  8. Sainsbo
    Storm about 30 minutes ago was pretty amazing. Shotgun thunder, frequent lightning, and 2cm hail!
  9. Sainsbo
    Love the idea of a competition thread. Hopefully I won't make myself look too silly.
  10. Sainsbo
    80kts in 24 hours? Wow! ADT is estimating minimum pressure to be 894mb, with sustained winds of 143kts (165mph), raw T values of 7.1. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2014/adt/text/GENEVIEVE_Y-list.txt . Cloud top temps seem stable but the eye looks to be warming still. Seems like a bit of an overestimation to me, but I thought it would be worth mentioning. Regardless of how strong it is, it is beautiful to look at on satellite. Not very often you see a storm so symmetrical! Looks a little bit like a weaker version of Haiyan
  11. Sainsbo
    And finally we have Super Typhoon Halong. Sustained windspeeds of 135kts (155mph), expected to peak at 140kts (160mph), making it Cat 5 on the SS scale. Convection is still increasing, and conditions are favourable for further intensification for another 24 hours or so.
  12. Sainsbo
    Winds of 115kts (~130mph) now, cat 4 on the SS Scale. Halong is expected to peak with sustained windspeeds of 130kts (~150mph), on the verge of Super Typhoon Status. Quite a difference to the predicted peak of a weak to moderate category 2 the JTWC were forecasting last night.
  13. Sainsbo
    Next storm on the way it seems, rumbles in the distance. I wonder if this one will be supercellular.
  14. Sainsbo
    Took these pictures as it was approaching. Never seen these clouds before. This is the picture I would like some other opinions on. It looked like the cloud was coming down slowly. It came down a bit further after taking this pic, but I couldn't get a clear shot because trees were in the way.
  15. Sainsbo
    Just went for a drive. Some nice sized hail, biblical rain, and frequent lightning. The rotation was quite incredible, however I couldn't capture it. Took a few pics of what looked to me to be a wall cloud/mammatus, will upload in a couple of minutes. I'd also like someone to have a look at a picture I took that looks like the base of the storm starting to lower. It reminded me a bit of how the wedge tornadoes in the US form.
  16. Sainsbo
    Beautiful wall cloud, will upload pics soon!
  17. Sainsbo
    Clear view of the storm just west of here, and it's definitely rotating. Never seen anything like it!
  18. Sainsbo
    It's brilliant here. Frequent lightning, booming thunder, and heavy rain. Could have more to come in the coming hours too!
  19. Sainsbo
    Some explosive development SW of here, lightning becoming more and more frequent.
  20. Sainsbo
    I can hear the rumbles!
  21. Sainsbo
    Same here, or atleast I'll try to. I'll give you some company. I don't think I'm in a bad spot, the NMM has been showing inches upon inches of rain for here, up until the last run atleast. Models aren't really that important now though, all to play for, for almost everyone in the south tonight, and the north tomorrow.
  22. Sainsbo
    I think it's both. You need high CAPE to start convection and then to sustain it, but I think the Lifting Index is more important regarding the formation of the thunderstorms. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm in the process of learning myself.
  23. Sainsbo
    6z NMM puts high levels off CAPE further west slightly. Still all to play for!
  24. Sainsbo
    Was only a matter of time before the MetO put out an amber warning. Wouldn't be surprised to see Estofex expand their level 2 warning later on.
  25. Sainsbo
    3600JKG^-1 CAPE for the South East :clapping:
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