Sainsbo

Jesus Christ! That forecast for next Friday just came out of nowhere. Good job there's 6 days for the models to change thier minds, or we really might be blown across to France. Will be interesting to see what the ECM says tonight.

A very good question, but a very hard one to answer. I'm a storm lover myself, I love the thrill of it, but when I see scenes of flooded homes and peoples lives ruined, it does break my heart. It would be horrible to have to go through something like that, and I would never wish it on anyone. That being said though, we can't change the weather - we can merely make the most out of a bad situation, so if they are here, I'll try to "enjoy" them, but I really do hope that local councils and public services are able to help people protect their properties, I wouldn't wish it on anyone. As for the storms next week, the ECM this evening doesn't seem quite as potent as it's last few outputs, which is a bit of good news, however it does bring in another storm like we have had this week again on the 13th, which does have some backing from the GFS, which makes it into a very nasty looking low that would likely do a lot more damage than some of the storms as of late. The GFS also has it intensifying as it travels over the UK rather than weakening, which isn't good. None of the modesl agree on the timing, and may get rid of it completely give it a few runs. I guess we'll have to wait and see. ECM: GFS a bit more progressive, and has the potential low showing about 12 hours earlier. UKMO also showing signs of a low on the 13th, but looking more similar to the ECM, rather than the GFS.

Seems like it may have been overdone, but with the UKMO going for a fairly potent storm, and the GFS starting to catch on, I still think it might be a problem. If it's weaker, it may also track further south, which isn't good news for the already battered south west.

ECM has the potential storm on Monday down to 939mb, just north of Ireland. Seems to be significantly deeper on this one, which is probably why it's further north. As if the ones we've had up until now weren't bad enough..

NAVGEM also shows it, only the timing doesn't correlate with the ECM, and it arrives a day later.

Met Office going for 20-40mm fairly widely, and with the current state of the ground that's more than enough to cause problems.

As hilighted already, the potential storm on Monday is looking very severe at the moment. I don't think I have ever seen the isobars as tight as the ECM are showing them, would be absolutely devastating if it is to come to fruition, especially where the ground is so saturated down hee in the south west, even though trees aren't in full leaf, I expect it wouldn't take much to uproot shallow rooted trees in waterlogged fields, not to mention how damaging the storm surge could be if it coincides with high tide, with sea defences already damaged. Luckily, it's still quite a while away, and currently it's the only one of the main models to show anything this serious. As for the storm Saturday: The GFS Hi-Res has the storm bottoming out at 944mb, and still sub 950mb as it tracks across the UK, so a lot of unneeded rain and strong winds yet again.

In the past 7 days, we've had over a months worth of rainfall here, and with more to come over the next few days. 26mm here alone for today, and it's still raining now. Absolutely horrendous out there, pease stay safe everyone.

982mb here, which fits pretty well with this forecast. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=0〈=fr&area=uk&size=standard Quite surprising that an amber wasn't released earlier on, not very often you see windspeeds this high down in the south. Stay safe everyone!

Ian F on Twitter, 10 minutes ago: #WILTSHIRE 2200 hrs AMBER warning upgrade to strong winds now being enacted for south of county, effective immediately. Ditto #DORSET

GFS showing a barrage of storms coming in over the next week, but a little more progressive in regards to Wednesdays potential storm than the others. ECM in good agreement with the GFS on the position of the low, and has it slightly more intense, and possibly a little further south. UKMO almso on board. Don't see charts like this very often!

Yikes. Some very tight isobars from that chart, I expect if it comes off, the wind will likely be the main feature, though the rain will obviously be a problem with the saturation of the ground down here in the south. GFS showing this just a couple of days later. Still very far away but looking ahead it doesn't look like the pattern is likely to change any time soon. I'm sure it would cause major damage if it happened.

1.8C here at the moment, and I'm feeling hopeful that we might get some snow tonight!

Luckily there are still some discrepancies between the 3 main models in terms of the track and intensity of the possible low at the end of the week. That being said though, some of those Pertubations look awful!

12C here. Doesn't exactly feel like January outside.

Let's just hope that Monday's storm doesn't coincide with high tide. The sea defenses around Aberyswyth, and many parts of the southwest have been badly damaged by the swell we saw yesterday and overnight, and I doubt the Environment Agency or local councils will have had time to fully fix them by Monday.

Here's an image of the current swell. If this wasn't bad enough, look at Monday!

Gust of 106mph reported at Needles, IOW. The next high tide due later on today could be interesting to watch. Some great surfcams can be found here: http://eyeballhq.tv/ Edit: Seems that the page is struggling to load, probably due to high demand. Hopefully they'll fix it by the next high tide!

Not sure that it's been mentioned yet, but the GFS 18Z shows a pretty heavy band of rain travelling up the country from the south on Saturday that it wasn't previously making much out of. Another inch of unneeded rain falling on already saturated ground.

10 Severe flood warnings out in the SouthWest already. I'm guessing that the majority of them are because of the risk of coastal flooding. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx Make that 11 now.

7 Severe flood warnings out now. Looks like this may be similar in severity to the tidal floods on December 5th? As for the low itself, if's currently at 957mb, on track with the forecast from the GFS.

Wettest day of the year here. In all seriouness though, the next week or so does not look very pleasant for most of our area. Noticed that the MetO Warnings hilight the possibility of coastal flooding on Friday too.

GFS about 10mb shallower on this run for the storm on the 6th January. Still a whole week to go, so it may become even less of an issue/deepen more on further runs. As for todays storm, nothing really out of the usual here - Max gust was 35mph, and 10mm of rain.

Well, I definitely wasn't expecting either the EURO4 or NAE to be showing these sort of charts all of a sudden - especially given that the potential impact from this is about 12 hours from now! Definitely going to be a nervous night for those at the Met Office. Luckily for the people who've alreayy been battered by countless storms in the last few weeks, the NAE and EURO4 seem to be the only ones developing this low quite that deep. Maybe they are the outliers, but on the other hand they could be picking up a trend. Looks like it may be down to nowcasting again come tomorrow morning. I'm sure the Met will issue warnings if/where they feel necessary if the next runs show more of the same.

Anyone else having a very hard time loading the forum? Anyway, back on topic: Meteogroup just tweeted a windmap, showing where the strongest gusts have been so far. Highest so far iss 74mph.