Sainsbo

From Thomasz Schafernaker on Twitter: "This latest computer model looks horrendous for UK.Gales everywhere(!) Monday.Red is SEVERE gales,damaging"

I can't believe there are still ensembles that are showing scenarios that would be so devastating at just 72 hours.

km/h

On the plus side it seems to have been shifted a bit north. However that doesn't chnge the fact it is still set to be extremely windy on Monday. Anywhere in the UK could see gusts of 50-60 mph. Then as the low gets closer to Scotland, winds look like they may gust to 90-100mph

Although the potential damage is high from this low, there are still a few days before it's due to hit. Their warnings are based on both the damage that may be caused by the storm and by how likely it is to happen. As we get closer to the event, and the probability of this happening increases, I'm sure more warnings will be put out/the current warnings will be upgraded.

The last 3 days have recorded higher gusts than were produced by St Jude here, wasn't really expecting that! Monday is looking very bad, especially towards the east of the region. Curently 9.7C outside.

Wow. I'd say about half of those show the low as 930mb or lower. Very worrying times ahead!

And I thought the GFS was bad enough!

Very scary looking chart - I'm guessing the GFS HR doesn't go below 935mb, but look how big the area with a lower pressure than that is!

It looks like the next few model runs will be crucial to see what the other models make of this. With only 36 hours, it's going to hit a lot of people without much warning if it does come off as the GFS is showing it.

I see what you mean. Those Isobars are very close. 90mph gusts for the coast of Wales?

All three main models show a deep low Christmas Eve into Christmas day. GFS makes it slightly deeper than the other models, at 935mb, but also has it slightly further north. ECM has it at 940mb and slightly further south than the GFS. UKMO has it in same position as the ECM, but slightly weaker at this stage. Only 120 hours to go, and with the three main models all acknowledging the potential for a deep area of low pressure, it's looking more likely.

The Low currently seems to be at around 953mb, and it's still deepening.

Where Swindon is located, we are usually shielded from the worst of the winds, however that really doesn't seem to be the case today. Gusting just shy of 40mph outside, and 10mm of rain in the last hour or two, and the squall hasn't even hit us yet. I feel very sorry for anyone up north who may be caught up in the Sting Jet later, if it materialises. Meteoalarm have a red warning out for part of Ireland, stating there is a risk of gusts up to 150km/h (93mph)!

Stronger gusts here today then the "St Jude" Storm! And it's still only 38 mph

Wow, I wasn't quite expecting it to deepen quite this fast, and I don't think the models did either! GFS has it at 960mb at 19:00, and it's a few millibars deeper than that with over two hours to go. Down here in the south it's also windier than anticipated. Gusting to 35mph here and I can see some exposed areas seeing 60mpg before it's finished.

So much inconsistency between the models despite being only around 36 hours away. 12z GEM agrees with the GFS, and wants to take it further north than the others, and the UKMO has it a little further south. ECM is somewhere inbetween. JMA and NAVGEM have it considerably further south than the others. Whichever end up to be correct, it looks like it could be very windy for the north on Thursday. As with most Low pressure systems, it seems the best way to do it will be to nowcast when the time comes! http://earth.nullschool.net Been posted a few times already but it looks like it might come in handy over the next few days to see what model has gotten the track right, if there are still inconsistencies by then.

Looks like it bottoms out at 940mb on this run rather than 945mb like the 12z.

GFS is rolling out and it looks stronger!

From Ryan Maue's Twitter. "UK news hyping Wed-Thurs storm yet? Sustained hurricane force winds look likely."

Most of the GEFS Ensembles continue to feature strong windstorms up to and beyond Christmas.

Not a huge change from the GFs and ECM, maybe slightly weaker, but fluxuating in the track and intensity are to be expected at this range really.

I know it was meant to go lower, what I meant was as far as actual pressure readings go, 914mb was the lowest. For all we know the next ECM run may show it deeper!

The Braer storm has the record for the lowest pressure at 914mb, and with that output from the ECM, it sure looks plausible!

GFS 12z has the low on Thursday 5mb deeper and hasn't changed the track much, and the ECM hasn't really seen any change on this morning. NAVGEM looks grim also. GEFS Control run very similar to the GFS.