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Sainsbo

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Sainsbo

  1. Sainsbo
    Pressure now at 985.5, and must be at leat 100 miles from the center. I'd guess that the low is probably around 982mb or lower now?
  2. Sainsbo
    It still has 6-8 hours of intensification before the strongest gusts will reach the southeast
  3. Sainsbo
    Possible, but my opinion would be that this is unlikely. I haven't seen any tweets from the MetO or Ian F about this, and surely with wind speeds of 90mph around the capital there would be very little hesitation issuing a red warning, especially if the period of strong winds is due to increase until midday, when there is a much greater risk to life.
  4. Sainsbo
    80 knots is 92mph.. I haven't seen any models indicate that.
  5. Sainsbo
    Harbertonford has already recorded over 40mm of rain, according to BBC weather's Twitter.
  6. Sainsbo
    The rain definitely looks like it's intensifying on the latest radar - Not good news, we've already had almost half an inch here!
  7. Sainsbo
    I'll see how the next couple of hours go. If it looks interesting, then I'd be more than happy to!
  8. Sainsbo
    Pressure now at 987.2, and wind gusts at 15mph
  9. Sainsbo
    Gusts of over 60mph now being recorded on the mainland. 63mph in cornwall and 61mph in Plymouth!
  10. Sainsbo
    Level 2 over part of the UK? Was not expecting that!
  11. Sainsbo
    Highest confirmed gust so far at Needles, Isle of Wight, and was 79mph.
  12. Sainsbo
    Max gust in swindon last hour.....4mph. Pressure down almost 3mb last hour - now at 988mb
  13. Sainsbo
    885 hPa? Looks like we have a new record low pressure outside of a hurricane!
  14. Sainsbo
    Swindon's weather station currently showing a pressure dropping by 2.2mb per hour, currently at 989
  15. Sainsbo
    I guess it's because you are closer to the coast. I think we will all have our fair share of wind before the night's out
  16. Sainsbo
    It is literally still outside. Wind is 0.1mph and gusts are 0.5mph. Very strange indeed.
  17. Sainsbo
    Pressure down to 992.6mb here, and falling at a rate of 1.5mb/hr
  18. Sainsbo
    Pressure is currently 994.4 and falling slowly.
  19. Sainsbo
    Winds gusting to 51mph already in St Helier Harbour, according to Twitter.
  20. Sainsbo
    I'm not sure if this has been posted, but between 1500 and 1600, observations show K1 dropped from 995.1mb to 991.9mb - a pressure drop of 3.2mb in an hour. It seems that Jude is still on track and intensifying fast. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/observations/K1_table.html
  21. Sainsbo
    There haven't really been any more downgrades. GFS still doesn't show much of a low, but the Met Office warnings still show the possible impact at the highest, and the likliness being the only thing to stop it going to red. NAE shows more of a developed low than the GFS. The best thing to do now is nowcast, nothing is set in stone! Stay safe
  22. Sainsbo
    The models downgraded this system quite fast, it wasn't a gradual thing over a few days. What's to suggest that in the next few outputs it won't be more intense again? We've all seen first hand how the models have been with this low, and it seems most of them models have had a real hard time predicting the intensity and track of this. I think people are ruling things out too early. We may still be surprised yet.
  23. Sainsbo
    The lastest BBC forecast still going for 90mph gusts possible in the south, and talk about only "tweaks" in the forecast possible. It seems it really could go either way. I'm sure we will see what's more likely when the MetO's warnings are updated. If the 90mph gists are still a possibility, I don't see a red warning being out of the question.
  24. Sainsbo
    The GFS has been the most changable throughout this period. It hasn't ever seemed to have a real grip on where it will be going, or the intensity. Watching to see if the other models follow suit will be very interesting indeed.
  25. Sainsbo
    Completely true, it would just be nice if it was possible to get an unbiased report from one of the media outlets without scaremongering or downplaying.
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