Sainsbo

The low is currently at 964mb right now, dropping extremely rapidly. It looks like it has dropped 8mb in just 2 hours. Max gust here is 46mph already, over 10 miles higher than the strongest gust St Jude gave us, and we aren't even getting the worst of it yet.

Morning everyone. Guess we'll find out today if this storm deserved all the hype. Some links that may come in handy: http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013122308〈=fr&area=eur&size=standard - Updates every hour and if a great way to check the pressure - See if it's on track with the models. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ - This will come in handy also when trying to check the pressure. There are a lot of bouys around, so it shouldn't be a problem seeing where the lowest pressure is. http://www.csgnetwork.com/pressinmbcvt.html Inches to Millibars converter, for the Bouy readings. Currently falling by 2.4mb/hour here, but only a 28mph gust. Stay safe all!

Absolutely fab post there AWD, I'd agree with you about the main problem being the rain. The River Avon is very close to topping its banks as it is, without the rainfall expected tomorrow

I don't understand why people are comparing St Jude with a storm that hasn't even happened yet? Like with most deep lows that are prone to change within very short timeframes nowcasting is the most reliable thing to do to see how bad it is. Regardless of which ends up being worse, it will likely be a notable storm for a lot of people, we will probably have a more accurate representation of the events this time tomorrow. All that being said, stay safe all on your travels. Better to be safe than sorry in cases like this.

ECM down to 930mb

Meteogroup made this image to show where the worst of the winds are to be expected.

Not good. At T-42 there are two lows, and the 930mb center is noticably further south..

It's already coming out. It looks a little slower, but doesn't look like any downgrade or upgrade by very much if anything. Maybe a tad further south?

Pretty nasty hail shower here

I think that's just about to hit here! Sky is literally black!

People post in these threads rather than the Model Discussion to avoid the condescending and degrading speeches. Looks like the amber warning is out now, I wonder if that covers just the rain, or the wind too?

BBC showing the orange triangle warning from the Met Office, I'm sure that the website is just having trouble updating.

"The Met Office are in the process of updating #weather warnings, we will give you the details as soon as they have been issued!"

Storm's gone guys we can all stop worrying now

50-65mph? The Met Office wind map shows 60mph+ for almost all of the Souther England at some point, and up to 80 along the coast, might just be me but I think quite a few places will get significant gusts at some point.

Those winds would have to be sustained for that to be the case And if that does happen then maybe those Express headlines wouldn't have been too far from the truth.

James Reynolds on Twiter just posted the latest Met Office Surface Pressure Chart for Xmas eve. 932mb

The low on the 27th is further south and not that much weaker - Seems that if it comes off it would be equally destructive as the one we are facing tomorrow.

Another thing that might make this storm more dangerous is the fact that there will be a lot of rain falling onto already saturated ground, which will exacerbate the damage caused, trees with shallow roots being more easily uprooted, ect. 20-50mm quite widely.

Bruce is now a Category 5 with sustained winds of 160mph, and gusts of up to 195mph. It looks like Bruce is forecast to slowly weaken throughout the day Though I must say, he doesn't look very impressive on satellite for a Cat. 5

There really hasn't been much change overnight, so the possibility of last minute downgrades seems to be decreasing. ECM shows the low around 930mb and the UKMO shows it just higher. The Met Office wind map shows the windspeeds for the South East slightly stronger than yesterday, with Hastings now forecast to get to 79mph. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/swindon-swindon#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=-0.31&lat=51.29&fcTime=1387800000 Also, from Thomasz Schafernaker on Twitter: "Stormy Mon-Tue: Likely that across less hardy South UK wind gusts similar to St Jude Storm but this time lasting much longer and wider area"

18z GFS has the low slightly shallower, but not by much. Still showing a 930mb low. Isobars look extremely close near Scotland, and only 66 hours away now. The HR still showing some damaging gusts across most of England.

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe Red for London/surrounding areas as more people will be out and about around the festive period? Just seems like there's a higher chance of injury. Guess we'll have to wait and see tomorrows outputs for more detail. What are your guys' bets for minimum pressure from this low? I'm going for 927mb.

Ryan Maue on Twitter: "Global model minSLP Tuesday 12z -- GFS at 924 mb, ECMWF 923 mb & Canadian GEM 930 mb"

ECM 12z is deeper than the last run by 5-10mb. It was showing 935mb this morning, now showing somewhere in the region of 925-930. I can't remember the last time that the models were still upgrading at this range. It's normally downgrades! Edit: Weather Online showing the ECM at 928mb.