Sainsbo

Meteogroup also hilighting the potential for sting jet formation, and with the upper level winds being so high, that could be potentially deadly.

Glad that the red warnings are finally out, hopefully the media will give this the attention that it deserves. I only worry that many people will be at work now and are not aware of the severity. Better late than never, though. Stay safe everyone!

Red Weather Warning issued for Southern Ireland from Meteoalarm. http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html Starting to look very serious now, wouldn't be surprised if the MetO took the same approach, and upgraded their warnings for wales. The low has bombed overnight,a nd is currently at 959mb - Quite impressive given it was at 985mb yesterday afternoon.

What a monster! Let's hope it peaks out to sea and starts to weaken before it gets here.

Hopefully people won't be too under prepared for the storm tomorrow, despite the lack of media coverage due to the current floods. It's strange how we've almost become to accept this as the normal, and hopefully that mindset won't cause any careless injuries tomorrow.

The ECM has the low slightly stronger than the GFS and UKMO, but doesn't seem to have changed the track too much. Wouldn't be surprised to see 90-100mph+ gusts on exposed coastlines, especially across wales or southern Ireland from this run.

I really don't think it's possible to answer that question. The situation is very volatile at the moment, and while the potential is there for some very, very strong winds, there is still a sense of uncertainty (I'd say the update from the Met Office also emphasises that fact, being on the highest severity level but one step away from highest on likeliness). I would go by what the Met Office are saying rather than the models, as they have many more models than what we have available to us. Wind and Gust speed can be viewed on the Met Office website, and is updated every hour or so if you want a more local idea, but obviously with the frequent changes in the track (allbeit small), the windspeeds will likely change. Like always in these situations though, it will probably come down to nowcasting as to where the worse hit areas will be.

Ryan Maue just posted this image on Twitter, windspeeds of 62kts (71mph) over a large area just off of the coast of Ireland.

GFS showing a small patch of purple on the sustained wind speeds chart from the 18z. 130km/h = 80mph. Very lucky that that isn't over land!

Yep. Not only in relation to the track, but the intensity too.

Met Office wind map showing 80mph on the exposed coastline for Wednesday, and 50-60mph+ inland for the SW/Wales. A few hours ago it was showing 60mph for exposed coastlines and 40mph inland, so it seems that they may have a better indication on where the main focus will be regarding the windspeeds.

So it is. My mistake!

ECM 12z Not quite as far north as the GFS and HIRLAM have been recently suggesting, but more north than the last run, and a tighter pressure gradient by the look of it.

What makes you so certain? The 6z runs had good agreement that the low was going to track further south, and now on the 12z, the emphasis has shifted slightly north. There's nothing to say that that won't change, and I think that the fact that the early Amber Warning from the Met Office span quite a large area hilights the uncertainty in the possible track and intensity.

Very handy graphic, courtesy of the Met Office on Twitter:

GFS looking slightly less severe, but still a very strong storm. It'll be interesting to see what the ECM and UKMO say tonight.

Yep, the charts for Wednesday/Thursday are very worrying to say the least. Stay safe everyone!

The Met Office wind map doesn't show anything more than 65mph gusts on the exposed southwest coastline, possibly still a lot of uncertainty on the intensity?

The last 3 GFS runs have all been consecutively upgrading the wind speeds from the storm. the 18z yesterday showed 80mph gusts for the far southwest, and the 6z is showing that to be 90-95mph. I know it's still a little early to pinpoint specific numbers, but when we are less than 60 hours from a potentially devestating storm, and we are still seeing upgrades, I think it's time to start paying close attention. Incase people don't know the conversions, the brightest purple is 93mph, and the darker purple surrounding it is 87mph. A large swathe of the southwest coastline could be in for 80+mph if this verifies. Sorry if it sounds like I'm ramping, but this generally seems very concerning to me. The WRF NMM just heightens concerns, by showing off the chart gust speeds for coastal areas. And still very strong as they move inland,

Slight upgrades rather than downgrades on the overnight runs, with the GFS now getting the low down to 961mb. UKMO and ECM agreeing more with the GFS, and some of the ensembles still look very nasty.

This chart shows it all really. 80mph gusts for the south west, and on exposed coastlines and hills I expect that would be considerably higher. Even inland, gusts getting up to 60mph as the storm moves North East.

Yep. Definitely not a chart you want to see at just 72 hours away!

December 5th there were over 60 at the peak of the tidal surge.

No end in sight on the GFS's watch.

Widespread inland gusts of 60mph if that is to verify, though I have my doubts that it will.