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Sainsbo

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Sainsbo

  1. Sainsbo
    Yep, not only that but neither the ECM or UKMO forecasted it to go below 950mb. GFS Hi Res makes it the lowest at 943mb. I guess in the next couple of hours we will see if it will turn out stronger than the models predicted. Edit: Down to 942mb now.
  2. Sainsbo
    Definitely looking worse for the south than it was a couple of days ago.. As for the actual storm, the GFS has it bottoming out at 945mb, and currently the storm is at 952mb, on par with the GFS. 50-60mph even away from coasts looks quite likely on this run.
  3. Sainsbo
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/swindon-swindon#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&zoom=7&lon=-1.68&lat=51.35&fcTime=1388070000 45-50mph inland, 50-65mph on the coasts. Still a very windy day!
  4. Sainsbo
    From Peter Kirk on Twitter: "Low just NW of Scotland down to 927hPa per the 12Z Met Office FAX chart" That makes it only the 7th Mid Latitude Cyclone ever recorded in the North Atlantic to fall below 930mb. Stunning to look at on satellite imagery too.
  5. Sainsbo
    Rainfall totals from yesterdays storm:
  6. Sainsbo
    The centre of the low is now at 934mb, on track with the GFS Hi Res. According to the Wikipedia page for the Braer Storm, there have only been two storms in the past 20 years to attain a central pressure lower than 930mb. This event may end up being even rarer than we thought. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993
  7. Sainsbo
    Same here. And there was me thinking I was finally going to be able to get some sleep
  8. Sainsbo
    Hey Casper. Abbey Meads. It's gone eerily quiet over the last 5 minutes here.
  9. Sainsbo
    It's gone very calm here, and the rain has stopped. Hopefully the worst has passed, with a bit of luck I might be able to get to sleep now.
  10. Sainsbo
    Already going through by the looks of it. Rain has been fairly heavy here until very recently, and the wind is howling.
  11. Sainsbo
    Crikey, it's horrid outside! Gusting to well over 40mph, and over 30mm of rain. The local brookes are overflowing, and as those pictures show, Coate Water is well.. under water. And we're in the yellow waring area. Dread to think what it's like in the amber areas!
  12. Sainsbo
    24mm of rain already and more to come, going to be a very wet night! Hopefully we might catch some of that squall line too, however that doesn't seem likely.
  13. Sainsbo
    The centre of the low is currently at 935mb, a few mb deeper than the Hi-Res GFS shows that it should be at this time. Quite astonishing. At 9AM this morning, the centre was at 964mb. That means in 12 hours, it has dropped 29mb. Truly remarkable, and it might not be done just yet!
  14. Sainsbo
    I do think that people are slightly exaggerating the windspeeds that the South East and then later on Scotland and Northern Ireland are going to get. I know there are amber warnings in force, but I haven't seen any model suggesting 115mph or 150mph will happen. That being said, the low is currently at 940mb, on track with the GFS, if not slightly deeper. It's expected to deepen by around 5-15mb from now over the next 12 hours before movig Northeast and slowly weakening.
  15. Sainsbo
    Seems Meteocentre was just a little slow to load. The center is at 945mb, right on track with the models.
  16. Sainsbo
    Whichever one it is, I think it's broken Storm currently looks to be at 949mb, a couple of mb behind the GFS. Squall just hit here, would not like to be caught outside during that!
  17. Sainsbo
    According to http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=0〈=fr&area=uk&size=standard , the low is still at 955mb. If that's the case, it seems to have almost halted its intensification, not deepening much at all in the last few hours.
  18. Sainsbo
    Pressure at K4 rising again slowly now, as the low is moving further away.
  19. Sainsbo
    According to meteocentre, the centre is at 955mb, wouldn't be surprised if it was lower than this though. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=0〈=fr&area=uk&size=standard
  20. Sainsbo
    Rainfall is minimal here, 2.0mm. Forecast over an inch today though so I'd better not rule anything out. Looking at the radar, it looks like it is pepping up, and it does't look like it is moving very fast at all.
  21. Sainsbo
    Agreed, possibly more IMO It does like like it is deepening as it is expected to. The GFS has it at 955mb at 12, so 957mb at 11 and dropping at a rate of 3-4mb/hr looks like it's keeping up just fine I don't think there is much chance, if any, of that record being broken. Even though it may deepen to 925 (NOAA still predict it going to 924mb!), it'l likely be north and not over land by then. My guess is gonna be 932mb near Stornoway sometime tomorrow
  22. Sainsbo
    Center of the low now at 957mb http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013122311〈=en&area=eur&size=standard
  23. Sainsbo
    I'm talking about the actual center of the low, not readings I've taken. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=NEurope&date=2013122310&size=standard〈=en&area=eur This updates hourly, and shows how much it has deepened.
  24. Sainsbo
    The low has deepends 10mb in 3 hours, and now is at 960mb, compared to 970mb at 7AM.
  25. Sainsbo
    The weather station in Swindon just recorded a gust of 46mph. Does't sound like much, but it's the highest gust it has recorded in three years. In the past two hours, the low has deepened by 8mb, if it keeps this up it is going to be an awful day for most of us.
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