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Sainsbo

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Sainsbo

  1. Sainsbo
    That was fantastic! Time to sleep and hope we get lucky tomorrow too. Best of luck to those who haven't yet gotten any storma, and I hope the people who have got them have enjoyed them.
  2. Sainsbo
    It has arrived!
  3. Sainsbo
    NMM 4KM 18z has what looks like a MCS shifted westwards. 50-60mm quite widely, up to 100mm in places. Pointless getting bogged down on locations but someone's going to get it
  4. Sainsbo
    I can hear the odd rumble too. What do you think of our chances tomorrow?
  5. Sainsbo
    If I read the sypnosis correctly, there is the potential for storms with such severity that they could warrant a level 3 being forecast, but currently due to uncertainty they are referaining from doing so. Sounds good to me. There's potential for some real crackers! I m quite surprised at how limited the level 1 and 2 warnings are to the S/SE
  6. Sainsbo
    Comparing minute differences between the chart runs is just going to drive people insane, nothing else. Someone's going to get a spectacular show, the only way to find out who now if to keep watching that radar.
  7. Sainsbo
    Indeed, BBC's forecast this evening hilighted the potential for 50-75mm of rain within a couple of hours. More than enough to cause problems
  8. Sainsbo
    Biblical rain rates from the storms off to the south west, approaching 250mm/hr!
  9. Sainsbo
    I stand corrected. Thanks for the info Other than the MLCAPE chart, I'm not aware what the others mean, so my statement was based mainly on that chart alone, which didn't look fantastic. I'm not going to complain though, much more to get excited about if there's a risk on Thursday too!
  10. Sainsbo
    Agreed, Thursday isn't looking great any more, but Saturday is still screaming potential. A westward shift on those CAPE values would be nice.
  11. Sainsbo
    That's a hell of a lot of CAPE for the SE!
  12. Sainsbo
    Certainly looks supportive of Cat. 4 on satellite. It's held itself together extremely well so far as it's started to cross the Philippines, and now is predicted to become a Cat. 4 when emerging into the China Sea. If anything, those cloud tops are still cooling!
  13. Sainsbo
    JTWC's latest advisory puts windspeeds back to 110kts (125mph), category 3 on the SS scale. The system's expected to slowly weaken as it heads towards Japan, but will likely still have a large storm surge due to it's size and prior intensity. What a difference a day can make. Hopefully some people willl be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
  14. Sainsbo
    Neoguri seems to have started an eyewall replacement cycle, as cloud tops have warmed considerably. According to the JTWC's latest advisory, sustained windspeeds are at 135kts (155mph), just shy of category 5 on the SS scale, but looking at it on satellite, it seems that the eyewall replacement has weakened it. The JTWC did predict Neoguri to maintain Category 5 status until Wednesday, so it is entirely possible that the eyewall replacement cycle wil have finished by then and allow time for re intensification before landfall. Even if this doesn't happen, the storm surge and rain will still be a very large problem.
  15. Sainsbo
    Spot on SS, latest JTWC advisory puts sustained windspeeds at 130kts (150mph), making it a super typhoon, the first of the season. Neoguri is expected to strengthen overnight, attaining sustained windspeeds of 145kts (165mph), which would make it comfortably a category 5 on the SS scale. SST's are still very warm and Neoguri seems to have gotten a lot of the dry air out of itself, I can't see too much stopping it from reaching that intensity unless anything else springs up.
  16. Sainsbo
    Looks like it could be a real bomber, definitely one to watch closely.
  17. Sainsbo
    Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimations for Arthur seem to be going a little wild, suggesting sustained winds at surface level at 97kts (110mph), almost a major hurricane. Wouldn't pay too much attention to them just now as recons are much more reliable, but here is the link for anyone interested. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2014/adt/text/01L-list.txt ADT also has pressure down to 959mb. For the sake of those in North Carolina, let's hope it is overdoing it. The 5PM advisory from the NHC keeps windspeeds of 90mph, and puts pressure down to 977mb. Still a few hours left for additional strengthening, wouldn't be surprised to see the next recon finding 100mph surface winds of higher, making it a category 2, which is forecast. Not often that you see a Category 1 hurricane with such a clear eye and well defined CDO. Impressive! My thoughts are with everyone in North Carolina.
  18. Sainsbo
    Thanyou for the suggestion, but I've already tried clearing my cache to no avail.
  19. Sainsbo
    Hmm, maybe it's something that will just fix itself then. Thanks!
  20. Sainsbo
    Looks like you were spot on, the advisory's out and it's 90mph. It's now forecast to become a Category 2 storm, as the models have suggested will be the case.
  21. Sainsbo
    Worth noting that the majority of the models now take Arthur up to or beyond 85kts in ~24 hours, which would make it a category 2. I think the NHC may take this into consideration when issuing their next advisory. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) suggesting that Arthur is already at 82kts (94mph), just shy of category 2, but it does seem that the ADT does sometimes overdo it. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
  22. Sainsbo
    Looks like an eye is again trying to develop on the latest satellite images. If it manages to clear, could quite easily see it start to intensity faster.
  23. Sainsbo
    I am also on Firefox, but I have tried on Chrome and get the same action failed message. Did it just fix itself or did you have to do anything?
  24. Sainsbo
    Latest NHC Advisory puts windspeeds at 70mph. Satellite images show the system becoming increasingly organised, with a CDO forming. Not too long before we have the first Hurricane of the season!
  25. Sainsbo
    Hi guys, I've noticed a problem pop up over the last few days and I'm unsure why. On the sidebar where the recent status updates are shown, I can click "view comments", but on a status update that contains more than 3 comments, I get a message saying "action failed" when I clike "show all comments" If my description isn't clear enough I can take a screenshot. Does anyone know how I can fix this? Many thanks.
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