Sainsbo

The media don't seem to be doing a good job with this. Sky news just had someone on talking about it who completely down played it, saying that it happens every couple of years. Switch over to the BBC and they say that we are facing "one of the worst storms in 20 years". No wonder the public never know who to believe!

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a link Ian tweeted. This may be quite handy in the next few days. http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

I see the probablility factor has moved up, one step away from red, the next few model runs will have people on the edge of their seats I bet!

Sorry, but this still looks quite worrying from where I'm standing.

May have been a better idea to invest in wind turbines In all seriousness though, stay safe everyone.

I'm amazed at how quiet the model thread is duing this time. Is everyone too busy reading the papers? GFS is either good news or bad news. Bad news for the majority of people who have to go to work, and because of the possibility of loss of life and inury, but good news for those nutters who can't wait for see some extreme weather. I'm sat on the fence as to which one of those categories I fall in, but the GFS is making me slightly worried.

Here in Swindon winds always seem to be minimal, even during these deep areas of low pressure. I don't see this being much different. I'd give it a max of 50mph here. For all of you who live in Devon, Cornwall, Somerset and Dorset, and especially near the coast, try and stay safe! Things can still change between now and then, but the track hasn't changed much today, and it will take a lot of weakening to see this not being a problem of some kind.

It seems to be looking more and more grim the closer we are getting. Quite the opposite of how it normally ends up when people are model watching waiting for explosive lows. Even though the GFS doesn't want any of it, I can't help but think that it will change its mind again on the next run. The GFS seems to have changed its mind on the track and intensity more than most of the other models in the last few days regarding this system. That is to be expected of course, but the ECM, UKMO and FAX charts still show Monday to be pretty nasty. Part of me wants this to happen. It's been too long since we had any storm worth remembering down here. On the other hand, I really do hope everyone stays safe if this does indeed happen on Monday.

The general trend today so far from the models seems to have been a slight upgrade in terms of barometric pressure and windspeed, and a slight shift north, which isn't exactly the best scenario for people down in the south. Hopefully no one will get hurt by this system.

-16.7C in Braemar is my best bet, at the beginning of January

Lekima seems to have defied the odds again and has become a category 5 super typhoon about 12-18 hours before scheduled. Sustained winds are currently at 160mph with gusts at 195mph, and it looks that it could strengthen further. The only thing stopping Lekima strengthening much more will be eyewall replacement which could happen soon.

Some extreme looking models currently coming out for the start of next week it seems, I guess we will have to wait a few days to see if the forecast has changed. 17C today, and rain on and off, with 6.4mm for the day so far.

Lekima certainly did bomb overnight! Lekima has developed a pinhole eye, and sustained winds have gone from 85 mph to 120 mph in 6 hours. JTWC now have Lekima a Category three, which is forecast to continue to intensify and eventually become a Category 5, and the fouth super typhoon of the year. Conditions look favourable for the rapid intensification to continue.

A beauty indeed. Just look how small the eye is now! JTWC going for a peak of 140kts, but Francisco has been underestimated so far, and with favourable conditions I think it could get even stronger.

JWTC still going for a peak of 135kts which I find quite confusing. Francisco is already at 125kts, and will likely have favourable conditions for a long time yet. This link suggests that Francisco is already as strong as the JTWC's maximum forecast intensity. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/FRANCISCO_Y-list.txt

Great link, thanks! If the link is correct, pressure is down to 950Mb and winds are around 100kts, making it already category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I don't see why this may not reach super typhoon status before it starts to weaken in a few days time.

14 deaths confirmed so far, luckily the number has been considerably lower than I think most people expected due to the last minute evacuations.

My god, I hope people are taking the necessary precautions. I personally don't think that it is likely that it is down to 883mb, or even sub 900. I know it's possible, but that would be almost 30mb lower than any other cyclone recorded in the region - Seems quite insane!

Wow, Phailin certainly did bomb out. The link provided by radiohead shows Phailin has intensified further and has minimum pressure down to 910.8mb again. Very worrying times for people in the firing line.

It'll be nice to finally have some cooler weather to end the week.

Minimum temperature last night was 15.6C. Quite the contrast from the 7C low the previous night.

I find it amazing how just two days ago, Usagi was forecast to peak as a weak category 2 storm - 2 days later and it has sustained winds of 160mph. It just goes to show how much we don't know when it comes to forecasting these things.

Last night temperatures dropped to 3.4C here in Swindon. Much lower than the 8C that was forecast. Max gust so fa today is 24.2mph

Yep, the NHC have updated their map and it's now classified as a hurricane. No hurricanes all season, and then two in the space of a week. Maybe this season may have an active end after all. NHC going for max sustained winds of 85mph, but I can see it going higher than that personally. Conditions look quite favourable and sea temperatures are very warm. Still about 36+ hours before landfall, too.

NHC now expecting Ingrid to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall.