syncmaster
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Posts posted by syncmaster
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cloud on the increase now in this neck of the woods as lewis says, sun out and temps creeping up, feels humid today....clouds certainly getting some height to them.
feel a drive out coming on later lol,,,,
16c and just having a sun shower,,,,,
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8c that was a shock to the system, heavy rain most of the day....
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Interesting once it hit the humber, the bulk went n/e and the hook went s/e over scunny.....For those of you around my neck of the wood there's a large shower pushing towards us now, it's lost a fair bit of it's intensity over the past 20-30 mins or so, although it will still pack a downpour that I bet if it continues.
Only doubt in my mind is the track of it, it's got an ever so slightly NE element to it's path, so the south bank of the Humber may only get clipped, heaviest of it could even just miss me to the North.
Those in Beverley will get it full on.
Interesting there's a little cell/hook shape that's formed underneath the main part of the precipitation, keeping an eye on it, this little cell if it maintains it's intensity is more likely to affect Sprunehorpe running NE through to Barton and then across the River too East Hull.
Lewis
Edit * Will be interesting to see what it does when it hit's the Humber, remember the little convo we had storm chasing dell when I said I was going to do some research about the Humber and the impact it has on precipitation.
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Yes i wonder will it make it to us on the south side of the humber temp still 15c and now a very light breeze..Something appears to be heading this way, slowly but surely. I don't really expect anything but I just wonder. The precip over Lincs has exploded in the last hour although the sferics have sadly disappeared.
Temp here 12.5°C flat calm with 86% humidity......hmmm.
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Now we are clutching at very small tubular drinking utensils lol,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,It is so dark out there, skies look really thundery. I wonder if nocturnal cooling may play a part this evening?
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Morning guys.
Here's my take on things with storm chart.
My Summary for today's thunderstorm risk
After a bright start to the day for many areas, Eastern and South Eastern areas in particular, as we head through the day they will be an increasing risk of showers for many areas, we start off with Central Northern England, Pennine regions and Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire around 11 am this morning, showers will be heavy for these areas and organized for central parts of these regions although thundery activity will be limited, there is a small chance of these areas experiencing thunderstorms although energy is limited for these areas, with the majority of the energy running from the Wash across to North Wales southwards.
Around 11am across Wales showers will start to form, becoming organized as we head in to mid day-early afternoon, showers cropping up just about anywhere east of Wales pushing westwards, showers will become more widespread and thundery, with some potent cells for these areas.
Areas greatest at risk is the West Midlands, with the risk extending eastwards across central southern parts, and later in to the East Midlands, EA and also the SE of England.
For EA and the SE thunderstorms will be rumbling until sun fall. There is a moderate risk for severer thunderstorms for these areas.
Regards
Lewis
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Well we ae arnt we !!!!!!! lol..We need Tomasz "strop" Shafernaker back - he'd be forecasting tornadoes, golf ball hail and supercells for tomorrow.
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Dont give up yet, its just south east of stoke-on-trent then your next in line,,,,,Lump it....as I have been doing for the past 13 months or so. All these storms are ending up further east than initially thought a couple of days before. Wed could be a good day for you though.
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Whats your thoughts on wednesday lewis, for our neck of the woods....if I had to put money on the areas to receive the best of the storms today I would say the following areas;
East Midlands
Nottingham
Through to Leeds/Bradford
Small chance of something further east in to North Lincolnshrie/East Yorkshire but unlikely.
Goes against the models I know, but it's what I reckon.
Dave.
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I think you are probably right, it was to far out in the channel at that time for it to be thunder..Theres some Navy war games been going on in the channel earlier- saw them leave Plymouth Sound earlier at work- it could have been that.
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wheres robbie garrett when u need him,,, lol....
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sister is down on the southern tip of devon, thunder already rumblin around although it is still someway out in the channel.. very windy aswell.
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Thank you backtrack thats what i was thinking, slowly getting the hang of it.. ive impressed myself lol,,,Fantastic post as always GP.
A quick question from me, with the MJO forecast to move into phase 8, do you think the 'shades of 76' summer could be on the cards this summer?
I for one am a firm believer that this summer will be one to remember, and so far, the models are supporting me!
In simple terms, rinse & repeat of this week, with high pressure situated to our east, with Atlantic lows stalled out west, with the possibility of drawing some really warm air up from the Azores.
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And for the less knowledgeable people this all means !!!!! LOL..Do you get the feeling that we could be locked in this pattern for a while - Atlantic trough, euro high? MJO is progged to stay close to phase 8 and angular momentum is rather steady but low.
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Temp of 14.5c by 9am, still murky and no sign of it burning off !!! Temp now 18c here in north lincs and slight NE breeze.
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yep thats a great Arc running from east of the isle of man down into north wales,,,Nice line of heavy showers now from Cheshire down towards Cambridge and beyond.
Typically it was just light drizzle as it passed over Nottingham, before rapidly intensifying within a few miles.
Still only the one strike detected so far as syncmaster said, but I think there will be more around that line before long.
Also some rapidly intensifying showers heading into north west Wales now which could well produce lightning soon.
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Lightening detected over in cheshire about 20 mins ago,,,,
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What is your location please !!!!!!did have lightning every minute - cloud to cloud - but wonderful stereo rolls of thunder
seems to have abated now though
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Yep and maybe dift across in to north lincs,,,,Some sferics across the North Midlands also. I am wishing for something to develop further north, its our turn dammit!!! lol
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Looks like u were up behind the cemex factory ah i was just at the front to the left of it,,,,View from South Ferriby
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yea great views down there bout 3 miles from me, was down there yesterday for a while then i trolled back up to the bridge and had a drive up the A15 followed a very menacing looking beast but it didnt come to anything lol,,, oh well always next time..Well i had a drive with the kids to the quarry at South Ferriby and what a view we had no thunder storms but what a place and view this place had. shame about it been a no go regarding storms but i shall visit this place again just for the views if anything.....i was in the red rover covered in mud
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I probably drove passed u, we will have to be more organised if the situation arises againI'm in a silver Astra and probably would have been seen parked up on the side of the road with my head in my laptop looking for storms
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apologies for not speaking, silver zafira..That was me.
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was that you in the red golf,,,Nice pics MCT, same view that I had. We must have been not more than 5 miles apart. Disappointing day though, I am still yet to see a storm this year.
UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted