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Shaun L

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Posts posted by Shaun L

  1. That I'm afraid is the mistake too many are making on this forum. The GFS runs are NOT forecasts, nothing has been 'promised' and the detail shown at say 5 days realistically isn't there. Use the models to inform you of patterns and then make your own forecasts based on that plus experience and knowledge.

    The weather this week has pretty much done as expected on a broad scale , just the fine detail makes all the difference at a local level.

    [b]Spot on. The forecast for the storms has always been "isolated or widely scattered" and this is what they have been. Storm predicition is always difficult due to the large number of ingredients needed and therefore as stated the models should be used as guidance not gospel.

  2. The sun is trying to break through here although there is still a large amount of mid to high level cloud to inhibit convection anyway. Still reached 25c without the sun earlier.

    May try to see the welsh storms as they pass out to the Irish sea later - anything to see some lightning !!!!

  3. Still getting some rumbles but the cell has moved off completely now and the sun is out again. I wouldn't be surprised if the heat from Liverpool re-invigorated it a bit before it moves into the Irish Sea and inevitably decays. In any case, I don't expect anything further in this area until tomorrow now.

    It has intensified a little on the last radar loop. Looks like it may actually reach here. Time to sit in the garden and listen.

  4. We only had moderate rain here last night. Today I can understand a lack of electrical activity, but yesterday evening I was chatting to Stephen of the Prudence variety on MSN and neither of us could figure out why there had not been a storm; the energy was there, the heat and humidity was, and a convergence line was too. I think Monday and into next week holds more promise here, yet who knows...

    Haven't spoken to Mr P for a while. Yesterday was strange but todays cooler temps with an onshore breeze here on the coast has stopped any convection.

    Cape and Li looking good next week .

  5. I've had a visual on it for the past two hours. It's quite literally on my doorstep, only about 15 miles away. I can't see the base yet, but it doesn't particularly threatening, or not as near as it did maybe 20 minutes ago. I know I sound pessimistic, but I think it will weaken by the time it gets here. I can't hear any thunder from it anyway; been listening intently for a while, but I'm just expecting a shot of rain and that's about it.

    Edit: Last two meteox radar outputs shown a deterioration. It's making a beeline for the Dee Estuary - no doubt that will kill it off completely

    If the dee doesn't kill it the wirral storm shield will. Had torrential rain last night but still haven't had any thunder this year.

  6. Can see the same anvil as you at the moment Shaun. Saw it develop about two hours ago and it's just creeping closer ever so slowly. However the sun has gone down now so I'm not sure how long it can stay active for (here today it's been overcast, rather cool and breezy - the sun only came out after 6pm so I'm doubtful of the energy available here currently).

    Hi Paul,

    It's been a cool afternoon here aswell. Not expecting anything but you never know. The cell south of Manchester on a parallel with you is still strong .

  7. Kinda looking forward to Radar watching tonight and see those storms really get going. I hope people keep posting to let everyone know what's going on, even if it's early in the morning. :lol:

    Radar watching and reading the reports/viewing photo's is some compensation for those who don't have storms and still adds to the excitement.

    Just to add we now have Alt cas drifting in with a very mild easterly breeze with temp at 20.4c humidity at 60% and dewpoint 12c

    Here's hoping for tomorrow and hope it's a good one if you get a storm

  8. It was quite torrential; I was generally surprised to see that intense a downpour and not hear any thunder. The temps have dropped here a bit but it's still quite humid. Once these next few showers have passed through I expect that'll be it for the night. In any case, nice to see you again on the forums Shaun.

    I'm always lurking just don't get much time to post. Was going to take a drive out tonight but will save it for the weekend now. Still no storms here this year.

  9. Couple of heavy showers developing over the cheshire plain currently and heading my way. Will be interesting to see how they develop.

    Probably give you a good downpour and then die as they reach here like the last lot. Watched your earlier downpour develop while at work by Ellesmere port.

  10. This is standard procedure by the met-office. They do it to cover themselves in case the unexpected does happen (ie/ the low does track further north than expected) especially given the fact that this event could affect parts of the north midlands.

    But as I said there is no evidence to support the view that this winte storm will affect us here in the north-west.

    The latest UKMO charts have actually shifted the low further north so there is a risk that there could be heavy snow in parts of the North West.

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