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Scandinavian High.

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    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking like an upgrade today 👀👀

     

    whether near or slightly above temperatures will be in place across the south, with periods of rain, wind, and showers. Or if the slightly below average temperatures in place across the north; where showers will remain wintry, will manage to filter southwards or not. If the colder air filters southwards wintry showers could be seen across parts of England and Wales, and it is possible some more significant snowfall could occur along the mild / cold air boundary. Thereafter, more settled conditions are expected to gradually develop more widely, increasing the risk of frost and fog. If this were to occur day on day net cooling would lead to below average temperatures, with an increased threat of winter hazards, including ice/snow.

    Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 27 Dec 2023

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Scandinavian High.

    54 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

    Mean geo pot heights still looking very good...

    gensnh-31-5-384.thumb.png.20cb7693bf4e9239c3de409da314f5aa.png

    Iberian heights non existant😉

    Yep looking like them higher anomalies  to the south will disappear at long last hopefully winter proper will arrive and if this does arrive hats of to catacol who has been flagging this for awhile. Re colder weather.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Looking at GEFS /EC clusters we are looking at 10 -14 days before we see any hope of a change away from this god forsaken pattern we've been in for weeks..

    Let's hope 2nd week of Jan winter takes off ..

     

    I think we need ride this out enjoy Christmas and also enjoy some very interesting output to come. down at Exeter seem confident at the moment.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Catacol said:

    There's no change in the signals this morning - a few of our US weather passionate cousins are wailing and gnashing their teeth over a very mild and flat forecast pattern for them - but this is gravy on the turkey for us. Once we get into the interesting final third of the month we can chalk off concerns over cold US air helping locally to enhance low pressure development. And in that old simple minded maxim - if arctic air isnt flooding the US then the same air is up for grabs to flood somewhere else!

    For a few more days - unless the signals change - the best thing to do is stick to ensemble runs in the extended. Here is GEFS for a few days before Xmas.

    image.thumb.png.1866b9f78d828f8f2267548ee4b24052.png

    Nothing here to concern UK snow hunters - and this is the position before we get the knock on impacts of developments upstream. 

    Look at the size and depth of that north pacific trough signal. Wow. HP downstream of the Rockies too. Expect to see some major US torque and warm air firing up into the strat. SSW for early January has to be considered as more than just a possibility now. We want a split if we are to stand a chance of something more than the Blankety Blank Chequebook and Pen....

    We’ll there is no concerns from CATACOL this morning unless there as been massive swing.

    • Like 1
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