[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Very quiet in here tonight is high going north east.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

If we do get a greeny high at some point this winter is it possible it could transfer to Scandinavia later on.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

25 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

It's interesting just how interesting everything has got in here. 20th December onwards is looking particularly interesting. Is a white Christmas on the way?

I really want something from east this time if we do get another cold spell northerly don’t really cut it for me manly dry and sunny.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Is high pressure trying to get up to Scandinavia . 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 mean:

Hmmm…

Is cold winning the battle or less cold to west  . Thank you.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I think models are breaking down very quickly over progressive . That is a massive block to the north east could push back the westerly’s.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looking great for cold, not so great for snow on todays runs. 

I remember last December mainly dry cold with a few snow showers around coasts north east uk then out of nowhere south east England had yellow warning for heavy snow wasn’t picked up I’m sure day before event.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Confused.com in here at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

I wouldn’t take to much notice at 240 plus with so many changes 120 chances of heavy snow fall increasing .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmm

Still learning is this looking good for any winter weather.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Has ec 46 failed before not sure. remember few years ago ec 46 was going for a high to north but never happened we was stuck in Atlantic pattern.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool cloudy windy rain , looks like summing up the weather in the ten days or so…… High Summer forget it

Isn’t it going to be warming up over weekend High temperatures across south and south east.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

5 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I can't see anything even close to 27 out of Friday's synoptics to be honest, is that correct? My guess would be very average for late June this coming week (in the south around 20-22, say) and actually a downward trend with time as pressure falls. I'd have expected the early part of the week, particularly Monday, to achieve the highest temps.

Maybe using old Data then week a ahead with that 27 in London on Friday     I just hope this is unsettled spell is not here for long and we get back to warm hot summer we are having.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I don’t think this unsettled spell is going to be to bad for south maybe some showers odd day more clouds staying warm back 27 on Friday or  bbc week a head is wrong.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Those snow depth charts..... cant see it myself. The ground isnt cold, the uppers are dodgy and the 528DAM contour isnt far enough South for my liking.. So whilst im sure we will see snow, and where its heavy itll settle... but not for long. March snowfalls away from high ground are often slushy messes... i just cannot see laying snow lasting long..

Even if it doesn’t last I think most will be happy to see snow falling  there hasn’t been much around I was lucky in December south east snow fall.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I’m hoping ecm on money here heavy snow south of England south east England

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Any chance of an easterly setting up anytime soon theses northerly’s are boring me.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I wouldn’t be surprised south of m4 sees two big snow events coming week the possibility is there.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Was trawling through for some GEM analysis but couldn't find any. But FI looks great

Pity it's on the warm side of its ensembles (unsurprisingly) and only has minority support... but it isn't an outlier. 

Very excited possible snow next week some Areas .  then spring arrives .

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

With these areas low pressures to south running across places could see quite a lot snow.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

12 minutes ago, Jacob Gamer said:

Can you send me the link to this update please?

High pressure will dominate through early March despite edging northwestwards, bringing dry and rather cloudy conditions for most, with some (most likely rain) showers likely for some eastern and southern areas. There is also potential for a spell of more unsettled weather in the far north. Towards the end of the period, a trend towards more unsettled weather is likely. With more direct northerly winds increasing in likelihood, there is an increasing chance of colder conditions and snow showers for northern and eastern areas, and a low chance of more organised rain or snow spreading south across the country. West, and northwestern areas likely to stay more settled for longest. Temperatures generally on the colder side of average overall, with some overnight frost likely.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 24 Feb 2023

 

looks wintery to me can’t see non of that in models at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

So with met office great update yesterday it looked wintery is it going to be a bust or will models have dramatic turn around.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

Yes, not much to shout about there!

Yep looking very interesting more then likely look definitely on to next run.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Absolutely no argument that at we are seeing the strat imprinting down into the trop later in week 2 

but where will the Atlantic amplification actually verify ??  How slow will the lower strat and hence the upper levels of the trop drop to - too slow and we move towards talk of west based neg NAO’s …. Too fast and we have the ridge in the east Atlantic sector 

given that we will be in March, it really matters where the pieces of the puzzle fall - I’m still of the opinion that away from elevation and generally the north of the country it will be a struggle for a decent snowfall.  But it certainly looks like we won’t see the U.K. fall on the mild side of the pattern in a west or southerly flow 

Very good option I’m going for high-pressure just to north of Scotland with coldest air further south . easterly flow wetter  conditions southern Britain colder air perfect ingredients snow that’s my take.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

With major Sudden stratosphere warming going on is it possible for 2018 deep Freeze when should we start seeing effects of ssw within models ecm gfs gem or has started all ready.