[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

21 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue i’m seeing at the moment is the resilience of the Canadian vortex, the 00z GFS highlights this well with blocking being shunted eastwards into Europe & not able to amplify to the north. (Deep FI, chart just to illustrate the above)

The impacts of the SSW in the troposphere are yet to be revealed. Overall AAM tendency is falling following -MT so would expect the AAM to drift more into negative territory again broadly supporting an increase in westerly momentum.

Another factor i’m not seeing mentioned is the current wQBO which does tend to destructively interfere with downwelling negative zonal winds from an SSW. It’s possible we’ll begin to see low heights draining from Canada if we see sufficient downwelling which would then perhaps allow for higher latitude blocking , but I can’t see this happening until late Feb early March at the earliest, realistically we’re probably looking towards the 2nd week of March onwards for an opportunity for sufficiently blocked conditions.

It’s also possible we get stuck with a Bartlett high and like the SSW in 2019, we see anomalous warmth instead.  

2018 saw a QTR & it was obvious very early on which direction we were heading in, this SSW is more complicated & overall drivers are less favourable for sufficient or quick downwelling & subsequent impacts. 

On next run will look different.  as always very interesting model watching coming up I would think.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

I think Feb is already a right off 

 

 

Why

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Relax EVERYONE……RELAX.  06z was cannon fodder….this is in the bag for Beast.  Here’s the proof

BFTP 

Interesting what’s going on .

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I’m saying gfs has nailed the pattern turning much colder later next week chance of snow in to south east England.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Sm on twitter other models to come on  board in morning if they do this place will be very lively.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Isn't there a good chance it is still too warm on Monday morning for snow? I'm seeing temps of 2-3 degrees then or are dewpoints lower?

Well see maybe all change on next run possibility is the for some wintery weather running across southern parts of uk wintery showers further north.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

What’s going on here south east England has snow again

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Am reading this right possible being put freezer from east also westerly’s are ready to push in .

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Have wonderful Christmas everyone Im taken 10 day break spend time with family hopefully something more interesting will show. CreweCold your spot on again Exeter could do with you in the building merry Christmas to all

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Any chance Scandinavia high anytime soon met office not backing away from cold yet.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Very interesting gfs this morning hopefully trend continues met office just updated looking very cold.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 hour ago, Speedbird said:

 

This is the tweet I was referencing . . .

Didn’t they say the same in November stating beginning of December Strengthening polar vortex didn’t happen we went in to freezer.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Can we have Scandinavia high please wide spread snow .

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Can they link for an Xmas miracle?

Hats off to @CreweCold if it comes off,

I’m still learning is it possible cold easterly there possibility.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Snowing again Orpington Kent.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

This evening with Christmas lights on.

 

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

I’m in Orpington Kent am in warning zone heavy snow 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Icon has no snow at all this week for us..ukm12z further south east as well.

Trending the wrong way for us gang

 

We never really do well northerly just hope snowy Easterly comes along .

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

5 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Oh well the we waiting goes on for London then 

I wouldn’t discount it yet met Office risk is still there.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS moves back northwest, maybe more than Kent still in the game...for now

And with chance of snow south east I’m still Learning I’m puzzled how folks are saying it will be good thing if this stays to the south missing uk this could be only chance of winter.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Icon now shifts the Sunday and Monday event south east. Ironic that as soon as the met office issued a warning for it yesterday we have trended away.  Fully expect warnings to be dropped in an hour or so.  Which might be a good thing

Not over yet 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Nice little south of the M4 snow event on Tuesday night from the ICON:

This from the tropical storm that wasn’t - seems to threaten the south of the UK on some runs if the low splits and the forward part heads NE, T99:

Is Sunday night still on table south east

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

13 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Arome 9z shows a bigger area of snow over the southeast and more of East Anglia on Sunday evening/Monday morning. Also on this run some snow in the southwest too . 
 

I have posted it along side the 6z for reference. 

That’s good news we could upgrade more nearer time I’m not sure on this is it possible for it Stall and stick around longer.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

 Hardly in the freezer for the UK and, meantime, the proper cold heads down towards Greece again . . .

That’s very good chart if picked up an easterly we would be in freezer big time.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Pretty good model agreement on a pattern change by next weekend for the UK to a milder SW'ly orientated flow and staying dry but cold before that, but yes the freezing, snowless spell looks like coming to an end in around 8 days time

Still could bust and stay below average.