Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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Cheers for your input...wowzer! been on YouTube and seem some mighty crazy ones and appears the majority of the 'bigguns' form around Moore near Oklahoma City
and appears earlier in the season (March/April) Alabama/Arkansas/Missouri/Tennesee/Kentucky/Georgia are the States more effected but as mentioned as weather is a fickle beast Tour 5 could be as good as Tour 1 but May is the month for the 'action'...
Currently going though probate so next few months not sure what bills I'll be shelling out for, are there quite a few spaces available for 2020? (I can't see availability on the tours anywhere).
Cheers Tim
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Hi there thinking about booking a place for 2020 tour - can anybody tell me statistically (for tornadoes) whether it is better to book an earlier tour (Dallas Fort Worth) or later tour (Denver)? - if you book an earlier tour from Dallas does this mean a tour of more eastern/southern States i.e. Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Alabama etc? ...basically historically what has had the more success.
Many thanks Tim (sorry probably wrong thread)
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On 02/03/2019 at 08:54, Matthew. said:
Here’s the winter CET anomalies since 1989 by the 81-10 average
1989 +5.8 1990 +5.0 1991 -4.6 1992 +0.1 1993 +0.4 1994 +0.3 1995 +4.0
1996 -4.6 1997 -1.6 1998 +4.6 1999 +2.6 2000 +2.5 2001 -0.3 2002 +2.4
2003 +0.4 2004 +1.9 2005 +2.0 2006 -1.3 2007 +5.6 2008 +3.2 2009 -3.1
2010 -6.4 2011 -4.3 2012 +1.5 2013 -2.2 2014 +4.5 2015 +0.4 2016 +6.3
2017 +2.4 2018 -0.7 2019 +3.9
31 years, 3c overall either way 9 warmer, 5 colder
2019 was 17th warmest in 360 years which means 8/17 have occurred since 1989
hhmmmm....going by the 1981-10 series skew's the figures somewhat e.g. 2008/09 would have have not be anywhere near -3.1 going by the 61-90 series, probably from the millennium the series is more applicable.
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Just noticed I won the winter 2018/19 CET comp...I really should do a winter forecast but I keep backing out at the last minute, I know easy to say in hindsight but my thoughts were for a largely disappointing winter in terms of cold but with 1 noteworthy spell (not sure the end of January merited that though some parts of southern and south western England did briefly get a good dumping). Maybe this winter I will do one but I won't go as far as week by week which to be fair is almost impossible.
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Yep looks like we're going from lovely clear blue skies and calm conditions to just the opposite (thanks Atlantic)...what ever happened to Pm and Am incursions from some point of a northerly direction?
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Local forecasters 'wetting' themselves on just how much colder the temperatures will be from tomorrow on wards and mentioned 'highs of just 11-13c' really!?! - have they lost the plot? still a few degrees above normal and believe in this part of the world at the start of March max averages should be near 9c!
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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:
This could end badly for wildlife if cold appears. I've seen bees, wasps, butterflies, and birds are collecting building material for nests.
That's what I've BEEn thinking too...saw a few butterflies and bumbles yesterday but haven't seen any birds with nesting material, sod's law it will happen!
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47 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
Wonder if this gorgeous spell will be followed by a cack summer?
I'd be surprised if we do...haven't had a bad summer since the Olympic year 2012.
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47 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
We don’t see this type of weather in late February very often - in fact, it’s very rare.
Not of recent February's not to sat they haven't been mild - March's of the 00's and 2010's have often had spells like this though (lasted at least a week) which goes unnoticed behind the cold facades of 2013 and 2018.
1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:I was however also comparing the 16.4 degrees here against historical local weather station data and identifying the planes over head.
16.4 degrees of pure British Fahrenheit - to quote the great man!
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1 hour ago, seaside 60 said:
How can you say this weather is boring, |I would rather have this weather in Feb and bearable temps rather than mid summer of 35c plus which is almost % wise what this weather would be.
If you like weather this is exciting, beautiful and fantastic for the time of the year.
Personally this BORING weather can stay for another couple of weeks plus.
You're talking as if we don't see this type of weather often...from the majority of April though to mid-October last year we experienced a lot of sun and dry conditions, don't get me wrong this is better than wet, cloudy stuff but we shouldn't be having this in February!...and synoptically when there is still 'room' for cold weather do get a high anchored to the east or south east without a change is boring. Only my opinion of course
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28 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Hopefully the high to our se that ruined any chances of a decent end to winter will finally do one!
The continuation of low pressure ALL the time in the Atlantic is another reason...look at the write-off month of December 2018 and look to our west, day after day all you'll see is low pressure but this time not with the defined strong jet that we associate with mild conditions.
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By the Gods this weather is boring - looks like a slight pattern change come later in the week but still looks pretty boring. Where is the cool/cold Pm/Am air from northerly's or north westerly's between the low pressures that we don't get any more? or the lack of cold high pressure that we see less and less of?
Yawn!
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24 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
Hope everyone is enjoying summer 2019
Yes it's begun early and no doubt last through to October and then from November to March we'll experience a prolonged Autumn.
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2 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Ooops, sorry, I appear to have stumbled into the MAD thread by accident .
haha!...98% aren't bothered with warm synoptics and I'm not one to chuck the proverbial sindy doll out of the pram.
7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:last summer scorched my melons
Hope you keep your melons to your own confides and not down the local allotments...otherwise there's going to be some jaws hitting the compost
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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:The Continent is warming up fast, this year, too...
Always seems to of recent years soon as we get into late March...look out for those building blocks (as per last year) for increasing warmth such as firstly high pressure throughout southern Europe and then building north towards Scandinavia followed by the Azores HP ridge extending towards the UK = built in heat from April onwards.
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5 hours ago, lassie23 said:
When i mentioned that we shouldn't get too excited about the SSW event because Ian was saying it wouldn't enhance our cold weather chances this year, guess who responded first lol
I don't know, who?...but yes fully concur with what cheeky_monkey. Remember the ridicule I received back in late January when I said it looks like the models were picking up on a mild south westerly signal at day 9/10 and posters replied 'well this is the hunt for cold thread' and other silly remarks yet it's a completely different story with some who have a cold bias who frequently post in there and have been to put it 'mildly' wide of the mark when it's come down to day zero!
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7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Hope we have a record breaking mild February now. Will turn out to have been an exceptionally mild winter down here. Well we had one snow shower so can't complain.
Exceptionally mild?...well don't know about that, I could reel off a number of winters since the millennium that has been milder than this but in regards to 'background signals' (yes those words again) coming into this one it has been very disappointing, no doubt!
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Hardly looked at the models the last few days as it looks a real struggle now to get any cold in (as it basically has this entire winter)...looked at 12z ecm at 24z and then skipped out to 240z and guess what hardly any difference! ...I'll come back in a few days time when in all likely hood they'll be no change again.
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Just now, Weathizard said:
You’ve been gutted a lot this winter, how do you have any guts left at this point
True!...he keeps coming back for more even though there's been so many 'game over's' this winter.
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1 hour ago, karyo said:
Re: better prospects next winter, that's assuming that the QBO will turn easterly early enough to save the winter. If the switch takes long to complete then we may be chasing cold spells in Feb/March again.
Don't we say this after (even though we've got 20 days of winter to run) most disappointing winters?...have to say this one has been particularly frustrating considering all the 'positive' background signals and seasonal global models and MetO/ec46 outlooks, and putting this into regard could be the most frustrating since the millennium...
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2 hours ago, kold weather said:
In all fairness it WAS above average for Jan for a vast part of the USA, maybe not toasty but above average overall. As Ryan Maue said, 3 cold days do not a cold month make...
Anyway as BA said fairly decent agreement of an attempt at a -ve NAO towards the last week of Feb. It would be unusual even in a very +ve NAO for there not to be at least one decent -ve spell in there, which hasn't yet happened.
I think you'll find it was more than 3 days...and the anomaly chart actually showed the warmest anomalies in central parts up to Michigan/Illinois/Minnesota/Iowa etc where it was coldest but yes agree that parts of the mid-west/west coast and towards eastern seaboard were largely mild throughout that month. Anyway all water under the bridge now.
12z maybe offers some hope moving forwards but once again looking into the far reaches...
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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:
Well worth popping on to micheal ventrice site..for hes latest tweet!!!
No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'?...the rest is history.
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'it is to early to say for certain' ...well I wish they had started every 30 dayer like that for the last few months and going by their accuracy would have prompted numerous posters on here hanging on every word they say not to take them as gospel.
Lets face it this winter they've been way off the mark...possibly other than the back end of January.
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26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The GEFS are still mixed early on but more now showing the jet cut back into the UK.
# Keep the faith!
I've been trying too all winter...noticed in the papers yesterday (The Mirror, yes I know) a MetO spokesman mentioned the second half of February will be colder, another straw to grasp?
and appears earlier in the season (March/April) Alabama/Arkansas/Missouri/Tennesee/Kentucky/Georgia are the States more effected but as mentioned as weather is a fickle beast Tour 5 could be as good as Tour 1 but May is the month for the 'action'...
The Continent is warming up fast, this year, too...
Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion
in Regional
Posted
Just went on the Mod thread for the first time in weeks - STILL a few on there believing we're going to get winter proper from the odd rogue run, never fails to amaze me.