tempestwatch
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Posts posted by tempestwatch
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1 hour ago, snowblind said:
Despite all the talk in the MOD thread still no mention of snow in the forecast on the met office site for our region. Talk of frost overnight and wintry showers, mainly on coasts in the Sunday to Tuesday bit. Max temperatures forecast to be between 8 and 5 degrees during that same period. Too much chopping and changing after then to be sure of anything. There is the possibility of a channel low which the ECM seems keen on taking a long way north introducing the mild air across our region. Other models have it further south which keeps us in the colder air but will it be cold enough for snow? Or, as usually happens, will it miss to the south and keep us colder but mainly dry?
Even with the colder air is still with us, any snow looks to be short lived, borderline and transient even through the early morning hours. Temperature only looks to be dropping a degree or two day time for a day. Unless Meteo Group are hedging their bets and waiting to see what happens and there will be an upgrade in cold in the next day or so for next week.
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Daytime maximum for this area in the upcoming colder spell are still showing around 6c. Less cold here this morning in slough, 5c with a little sun to welcome the first day of Spring.
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Afternoon all,
Long time watcher here (lurker) but have been drawn in to post as this is from the BBC South east (SL2) area. Some indication that they expect at least a chance of a continental flow
By the end of the week there are some risks of temperatures dropping below normal, especially in southern, central and eastern areas, if high pressure shifts and becomes centred more towards northeast Europe or even southern Scandinavia. This could pull cold continental air across on south-easterly winds. However, there should be a bit of an uptick in temperatures in northern and western areas, with milder south to south-westerly flows.
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Certainly starting to feel very raw today In Farnham Common, Slough. Looking forward to seeing what next week brings!
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New to this local group, live in Windsor and Arles sur Tech in France near the Pyrenees, what a difference in climate! After days of gloom in Windsor, the cloud cleared to lovely blue sky within about 20 mins today. Lovely change.
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Well I am off to Carcassonne in France for a change of life and climate.Today is fine but the last 4-5 summers in Scotland (in Fife at least) have been awful on the whole. As much as I love Scotland my french wife has to have a hot water bottle chained to her hip. Even the winters have become mild and wet. What ever happened to the seasons
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58 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:
It hasn't been too bad of a Summer this year. Mostly dry and bright, but with some instances of rain and showers at times. What this Summer has been unappealing for so far is thunderstorms, with none of the plume-like setups delivering anything.
Personally, I would love August to change that, but looking at the models, it doesn't look as though they'll be any proper heat for the next week or so at least (although things could always still change). Just be nice to have a decent Spanish plume setup with an authentic thundery breakdown. Any storms that have broken out just haven't wanted to hang about over the West Midlands (at least not in this part).
Maybe some of the showery setups this week could at least provide showers with a few odd rumbles. But just want a proper storm, really
I suppose that depends on where you are. In parts of Scotland apart from the odd day here and there (and a nice spring) it has been awful, wet and miserable.
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11 hours ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:
Also adding in the factor of ex-hurricanes coming from the tropics, looks like summer, for the north at least, might be basically over.
It never started in most parts of Scotland!
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Thank you Ciel
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Good morning all, can anyone put me onto historic weather data that i can download into excel, preferably from the Forth valley area?
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Hi, don't know if this is the correct area but I am looking for historical daily weather data, sunshine amounts, rainfall amounts, wind speed and direction etc.It would be ideal if it is in a format that i could download into excel. Can anyone put me onto a good source?
Cheers
Mike
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30 minutes ago, cheese said:
Funny thing is, if it's heat you're after I'd say the ECM is better this morning than the GFS.
Still, we've been here before. Going by the doom and gloom that's been posted throughout this thread I was certain July would be a stinker of a month but in reality it turned out fine. Things change quickly. This is all several days away - the final solution is far from being found.
Some sun and a little warmth would be nice, July has been awful in Scotland. This nastly low passing us now will have a 3degree sting in its tale for us. Very autuminal this morning.
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Heavy in Newmills near Culross now and considering we are right on the coast, I think we are doing well. Didn't think the front woukd come this far!
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Light to moderate here on the coast at Newmills in Fife. Temp is at 0 degrees at the moment to. Nice stuff!
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7 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:
Really not sure what to say to this.... Still hurricane force turning West at 90 deg. What would we make of that impact to models?
After passing through the Azores, this storm will track almost due north into the North Atlantic tomorrow night and Saturday and will move over much colder water causing it to transition back into a non-tropical storm system. Eventually the non tropical counterpart of Alex will merge with another storm heading east from Newfoundland in the North Atlantic. Coutesy of Accuweather!
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Maybe its a sign of how hard it is to forecast at the moment that the monthly outlook that gets updated at 10am on the bbc website has still to be updated, procrastination maybe
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On 17/12/2015 at 4:27 PM, Costa Del Fal said:
But isn't this warmth largely a result of a very strong El Niño driving the pattern and over riding other signals - hence the persistent euro high.
As to the impact on El Niño from climate change, the science leaves very mixed opinions on that especially in our part of the world.
Hi Costa,
As a scientist (environmental not meterological) i always want to form opinion on evidence based reseach. Now there is no doubt that the world is warming and that some of that warming is human induced, but how much of the 1.5 degrees (think this is the correct figure) is from man, and how much is down to natural cycles such as the PDO and the Atlantic cold and warm phases? This is not to many the many other cycles little understood. From that 1.5 degrees that can be assigned to man, how much is statistically significant.
Mix xurrent short cycles of el nino and you can get a very confusing picture. I remember in the mid seventies scientists said we were going into the next ice age because of the hard winters we had, never mind the long heatwave and draught we had after that
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The preospects for the next few weeks looks potentially very good if you take the MT comments on board. Could be bitterly cold here from the weekend onwards. Anything is better than this drowned dog wet mush
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I do think that there will be some averaging out of the remaining part of winter, although probably in the last quarter. I cannot see the whole winter being this much above average. I remember saying in the Autumn when here in Scotland we were having reasonable warmth and sunshine for many days in a row, that nature would even things out to a certain extent. I am not saying that it will be average jsut that at the end of the season,the positive anomolies will not be as acute as they are at the moment.............I hope
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6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
erm... no?... pretty average as i recall.
but i cant speak for the whole country, maybe the northeast did get more snow.Sorry it was 1978/79
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14 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
A few weeks ago on here i asked a Q about the Euro High hanging around and scuppering a lot of Winter's chances for cold and snow. I was 'assured' it wouldnt hang around for long....
Hmmm........
This Winter will shape up to be like the early-mid 70s Winters (IMBY); we had 5 or 6 mild ones in a row with v little lying snow (IMBY).
But then was not 1976 winter a very good one. The snow seemed very deep in the north east of england, mind you, I was much shorter then
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It was only a few days ago when the models couldnt even agree past a few days! The models have changed so many times I cannot begin to even harbour thoughts that they may be right out until spring.
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Light drizzle here in Newmills, next time maybe
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I know the SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is more pronounced than last year, will this have such a noticeable effect on our weather though? It's not massively different, is it? (genuine question
)October 2014 is 1st:
A number of small temporary snow events last year were because of a large plume of cold over the Atlantic. If the water is cooler then would there be less moderation of cold temperatures if the same were to happen again and so a greater chance of snow from the northwest? Is that too simple?
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Being from the north east, i used to look through the evening gazette newspaper just to see if the weather forecast paragraph showed the outlook had 'Colder' written. There can be too much information now on which you can fall off from. I will be looking out of my window each morning and seeing if it may snow. If not, dry and cold will do me just fine. In 2010 I was ins Scotland and I had to did my car out of a snow drift over 4m deep in -8, believe me, its no fun