tempestwatch
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Posts posted by tempestwatch
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Do you think the current style set up could continue late into Autumn and winter given that it is an El Nino year? I am fascinated in the fact that our weather seems to get 'stuck' in patterns for elongated periods of time i.e.zonal then high pressure dominated. Could El Nino encourage a high pressure dominated winter?
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Would this type of scenario with dominant high pressure be more likely in El Nino years? What are the chances of this extending into winter and providing some good setups for cold?
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Judging by this morning's 500mb mean charts it's 66/33 in favour of the trough edging east:
17th August 00z ECM GFS 10 Day.gifFingers crossed the GFS is correct at this stage, mid-20s by the weekend would be splendid
I think here in Newmills on the Forth, temps have only hit the 20s on six occasions. Its solidly been 15 -16 degrees. 20's would be wonderful!
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Grand day yesterday at Newmills with the early part and last part being the best with a lot of cloud in between, but much better that previous drivel we have had. Here's for a good end to August, looks like there is a possibility for some fine warm weather although its 50:50 in my books as to whether that Trough wins out over the eastern block. Would be good if this situation sticks throughout the winter!!!!
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Do you ever wonder if this is as good as it gets! Thoroughly disheartened by the lack of summer. I know I should expect bad summers etc for Scotland, but this is dreadful, had 3 borderline bbq days this summer so far and it looks like going down hill from the end of this week. South of France beckons to live I think. Love Scotland but this summer has killed me off I think lol
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Looking forward to a mild and possibly wet winter.
Hi knocker, what role do you think El Nino play in our winter this year?
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Woke up at about 5am this morning to the sound of thunder and flashes of lightening. Could hardly see the ground for rain splash, it was POURING down. Lots of surface water this morning and localised flooding, when are we going to get summer? This constant grey and coolness is starting to get me down
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I just hope the models are right with a more north westerly flow.
Constent south west humid forecasts need to be remodeled to fresh clear north westerlies.
I just hope that they will be right for once.
You need to come and live in Scotland lol!
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Ah cracking for a change, shame I am hiking near Sandwood bay the weekend, that pesky front may skupper my chances of getting a tan!
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Complete surprise last night when I put the bin out and found it snowing in Dunfermline. real heavy snow too. laid about 2cm. Came to work this morning in Alloa and nothing lol
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Heavy sleet/snow showers in Alloa that give a brief covering on the grass. Ochils look very impressive today fully loaded now with snow. looking forward to later on after 12pm maybe for some more of the same.
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A slight aside from the current excitement, regarding the oft maligned GFS. I made an almost jokey post on January 1st regarding some synoptics GFS was showing way out in deep FI (post is here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82124-model-output-discussion-into-2015/?view=findpost&p=3104614). The particular chart was:
Comparing that with current output, for the exact same timeframe:
Not a perfect match but not bad. Roll it on 24 hours and the match is better:
I'd say that's pretty impressive really. I know one swallow doesn't make a summer, but I thought it was still worth a mention.
Holds potential for its new replacement!
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Heavy snow in Alloa for the last 25 mins
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Been snowing on and off all morning here in Alloa, really heavy showers with settling on the grass. Just seen the Amber warning, good stuff lamp post watchers!
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Well if the BBC weather page is correct, we can expect almost below freezing temps for much of the time over the weekend with some good snow potential. Raining here now in Alloa where I work. Looking forward to maybe getting some white stuff mixed in tonight.
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Anyone here think this is pretty significant http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30097648
Perhaps we are not alone!
Perhaps we are STILL alone, but have found where we came from!
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Accuweather not going for that much of a cold winter here:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733
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I was just going to say, I can't remember the last time the rain battered against my north facing kitchen window!
Well from the BBC forecast this morning, I was expecting some sharp showers coming down from the north. Instead its been lovely and sunny here in Alloa, not wall to wall, but lovely nonetheless
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Preliminary winter forecast up here:
https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4837-preliminary-winter-forecast-201415-return-to-cold/
Still early days yet and far from set in stone but I think you'll like it...
Great forecast, very in-depth and clearly explained! Hope you are correct!
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Great to see a frost on the ground here in Dunfermline this morning, a real nip to the air. models are starting to look good for this winter too, still early but already much better than last years dreadful winter.
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There's a real defined back edge to the frontal rain cloud as it passes through with clear blue skies behind, lovely to see!
edit, blazing sunshine now
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Got up this morning expecting to see the puddles illuminated in the street lamps but very dry, windy yes, but no real gales. Lovely blue skies for most of the day to with the odd big gust of wind. Hardly seems like a storm at all here in Dunfermline.
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Well a dull and rather warm start to Referendum day her in Dunfermline and Alloa. Good luck to Scotland whatever the outcome and may clear skys and sunshine light our path to the future!
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The most sustained very warm spell since late july / early august is just around the corner according to the Gfs 06z op run, becoming very warm and more humid, locally hot across the south later this week as we begin to import continental air northwards, even the north of scotland reaches 21 c at times which would be incredible by mid / late september standards, the south could hit 80F (26 / 27 celsius) and even by next week, low to mid 20's c is shown. The main theme is for the block to hold, indeed strengthen at times and we should all get plenty of sunshine and just isolated heavy showers, most of those across the south and SW but also a chance of thundery rain spreading up across southern / se england by the end of the week. Later on in low res the gfs decides enough is enough and brings a marked change to much cooler, windier and unsettled weather with the polar front jet ending up in a much more typical position by the end of september..but for most areas, the next 7-10 days look more like high summer than well into early autumn..Let's make the most of it
Hi Frosty, to your knowledge, have you seen charts like this before in September with such a prolonged and blocked pattern?
Scotland - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Do you think that this blocking can be a major player in the winter to come owing to El Nino being a major player? Some of the long range stuff hints at mild and wet?